/ world today news/ The leaders of the Kyiv regime are frantically calculating the human losses – millions of people have left the country. But in fact, emigration (and even military losses) are only the tip of the iceberg, a small part of the catastrophe that is unfolding in Ukraine today. What remains of Ukraine after the Soviet Union will never resemble the former Ukrainian SSR.
Minus 5.5 million people – this is how much the working population of Ukraine has decreased so far. People’s deputy of Ukraine Nina Yuzhanina expressed such figures, referring to a study by the International Labor Organization (ILO).
There is no one to work
It expresses – that is, it confirms and does not dispute. Of these, 1 million were mobilized (military forces, militias, territorial defense), that is, temporarily lost to the economy. Outside Ukraine – 3.2 million women of working age. Another 1.3 million combat-capable Ukrainians are in territories that Ukraine does not control.
There are ambiguities here. Which is not controlled – from 2014 or from 2022? Okay, let it be 5.5 million. Even if the ILO includes Crimea and the territories where people’s republics were proclaimed in 2014, this does not diminish the result much. The Southerner immediately compared this to Germany’s losses in World War II (4.7 million people – 16% of working-age Germans). For Ukraine, 5.5 million is almost twice as much (-30%).
Can anything else be added to this? For sure. First, not only women, but also men abroad. It is reliably known about 10 thousand deserters. Another 432,000 men aged 18-60 crossed the Polish-Ukrainian border from February 24 to June 7 last year. Taking into account the data of the Ukrainian side on the shadow turnover of the military services (about 1 billion dollars since the beginning of the SVO), here we can easily add at least another 100,000 people. Moreover, Ukraine has a border not only with Poland. In general, another 500-700 thousand can be added to the ILO data.
In the end, the ILO and Yuzhanina forgot about the two million who went to Russia. Among them, half are able to work.
What becomes with the economy?
With such a decline in the labor force, the collapse of the economy is inevitable. According to the EU forecast (and they consider it positive) in 2022, the GDP of Ukraine has decreased by 29%. The forecast for 2023 is growth at the level of 0.6%. In fact, it means “as in 2022, but 0.6% better”.
Will there really be growth? It just depends on the EU itself. Agriculture provides Ukraine with more than half of its export earnings. Meanwhile, grain exports to the five border countries (Bulgaria, Slovakia, Hungary, Poland and Romania) are already banned at EU level. And the European Commissioner for Agriculture, Janusz Wojciechowski, predicts its extension after June 5
For its part, the US Department of Agriculture predicts a 21% reduction in the wheat harvest in Ukraine, which will lead to a decrease in exports (-5 million tons). Forecasts for other cereals (corn, barley) are in red.
The problems of the agro-industrial complex of Ukraine are related to the empty ports: there is no cheap logistics for importing fertilizers and fuel, there is no stable export channel. But once the conflict is over, the ports will quickly resume operations. Although crops will not soon return to the level of 2020-2021: loss of agricultural land, the need for demining.
The agro-industrial complex not only brings income, but also drags the economy along. If the GDP of Ukraine fell by 29%, then the industrial production – by almost 37%. In addition, key industries for Ukraine suffered the most: metallurgy (-62.5%), mining (-61.7%), chemical industry (-62%), engineering (-43%).
In 2023, the decline slowed to 32% (January) and 26% (February). And since March, the statistics may even begin to “grow” due to the effect of the low base: in the first months of the SVO, the decline in industrial production exceeded 50%. On the other hand, the pulse of industry is highly dependent on energy affairs.
There is not enough electricity for everyone
In the energy sector, the situation is no better. First, blackouts, which Ukrainians have already begun to forget about, may return to Ukraine in the summer. The power system must be prepared for the new winter, which means the reactors must be shut down for scheduled repairs.
An alternative to suspensions is importation. At the same time, today Ukraine sells electricity to its neighbors for 110–140 EUR/mv (domestic Ukrainian prices are around 80 EUR). That is, it will either have to raise prices or suffer losses.
At the same time, the authorities lick the shutdown of nuclear power plants in Germany, because it increases the demand for energy in the EU. For this purpose, in May they even started the export of energy from the Khmelnytskyi NPP to Poland’s Rzeszow. And they will run a similar line from Rivne NPP to Helm. This means that the reason for the suspension may also be the desire to earn money from exports, which brings Ukraine down to the level of a “Eurobattery”.
At the same time, capacity revisions are simply not conducive to exports. The most serious losses of the energy system are the Zaporizhzhia NPP and alternative energy. Energoatom estimates losses from the loss of control over the NPP at 48 billion hryvnias per year ($1.3 billion). The installed RES capacity at the end of 2021 is 9.7 gigawatts. Almost half (think – another ZAPP) either remained in the territory not controlled by Ukraine or was not working due to the hostilities. In other words, there isn’t enough power for everyone. If they export, then they will have to forget about the recovery of the industry and get used to shutdown schedules again.
It’s wonderful away
For almost ten years now, Ukraine has been living in the media reality of a wonderful future, for the occurrence of which nothing is needed: to achieve a, b, c …
“Our guys will return from the front”, “They will give us Javelin”, “Eh, only tanks” – this is in the military plane. “Let’s sign the Association with the EU”, “We will achieve a visa-free regime”, “In a little while, we already have the status of a candidate for EU membership”, this is in relation to Europe. The same points can be introduced literally in any direction: industry, agro-industrial complex, science and education.
Today, the main object of the hopes of the Kyiv regime is the spring offensive, which is gradually turning into a summer one. But no matter how it ends, in any case, it will not return Ukraine to the Kiev regime, for which it sends its fellow citizens to death – it is long gone. Kiev expects to cover its losses by confiscating Russian assets – another lure of a beautiful tomorrow.
The ILO and Yuzhanina forgot one more thing. Those able-bodied Ukrainians who are leaving for the EU and Russia are not leaving alone. They bring their children with them. And without children, not only is there no future, but the last meaning of the massacre, which Kiev does not want to stop, is also lost.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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