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When the hatch of the International Space Station first opened twenty years ago, it was known ‘smell of space’ probably not so strong yet. That will be different by now; the ISS turned 20 Monday, and after visits from dozens or even hundreds of astronauts, the space station is reaching the end of its technological tether. And it is not yet known how long it can last.
On Monday, November 2, we will celebrate the ‘anniversary’ of the International Space Station, but you could actually celebrate that date a little earlier. The first module of the station was launched into space on November 20, 1998. Zarya is a Russian module and one of the most important for the station, at least in the early years. The station now consists of dozens of such modules, as well as coupling ports, solar panels and other components.
Monday, however, we celebrate a more symbolic birthday. On November 2, 2000, exactly 20 years ago, a crew of two Russian cosmonauts and an American astronaut arrived at the station. Not a day has passed since then without at least one astronaut in space. They work and live there, even for months at a time in recent years. Since that maiden flight of Bill Sheperd, Yuri Gidzenko, and Sergey Krikalev, 241 astronauts have visited the space station, spacewalks have been conducted and commercial spaceships docked, and the participating countries largely ignored international tensions on earth. But now the ISS is also starting to show cracks. Literally, because a large hole was recently discovered in the space station, and the countries are increasingly talking about a future that may take place without each other.
Numbers
First, let’s take a look at the station’s performance. A total of 241 astro and cosmonauts flew to the space station, spread over 19 countries. 230 spacewalks have been conducted since December 1998 to assemble and repair the station. A total of 42 flights were carried out to get all parts of the station together, 37 of which were carried out on board the Space Shuttle. The remaining five were carried by Russian Proton and Soyuz missiles. After all, the Space Shuttle had much more cargo space than the Russian rockets and with it a much larger space station could be built than originally intended.
In total, about 350,000 sensors keep track of how the station and the crew are doing. In the American part of the space station, that information is collected through a hundred different networks. Code of more than 1.5 million lines is used to control this. That’s only for the flight software. The software that Houston mission control uses more than three million lines of code. That information is being updated at a rate of 600Mbit / s sent to earth.
Astronauts mainly use their time on board the station to conduct scientific experiments. It concerns more than 3000 tests on microgravity that sometimes take years. In addition to the experiments carried out by the crew, the space station contains twenty measuring instruments that are located on the outside of the station.
The experiments
It is with those experiments that it becomes a lot more difficult to justify the importance and also the gigantic costs of the space station. Because what actually happens in the ISS sometimes remains a bit vague, and whether it justifies the price tag of around 150 billion euros.
You hardly hear astronauts themselves about the work they do. “We are only performers”, André Kuipers said years ago in an interview. “All kinds of scientists come to you in advance to tell you what needs to be done, what exactly you need to measure and test, but just as often you don’t know exactly how an investigation works.”
Whether the experiments in the ISS are really useful is a point of discussion
In total, more than 1800 scientific papers have been produced from research by the ISS. NASA keeps itself lists with scientific successes from the space station, including some medical discoveries such as insight into how Duchenne’s disease works. But a lot of research also seems to be carried out specifically in space because it takes place in space. For example, there are experiments with 3D printing in weightlessness, and the maintaining plants in space, which could potentially be useful in the future if we want to live on planets.
There is also a great deal of research into the effects of weightlessness on the body. A well-known example is the breakdown of bone and muscle mass, where much looked at. This information is also useful for physicians on earth who are conducting research on that subject, but whether this necessarily requires a stay in space is a second matter.
Another well-known example that was in the news a lot is the mission that lasted almost a year. As is often thought, that was not only a mission of the American Scott Kelly, but also of the Russian Mikhail Kornienko. The pair spent 340 days in the space station, looking closely at the effect of such a long stay on the body. Kelly’s mission was particularly interesting. His twin brother Mark was also an astronaut and underwent the same medical tests on Earth as his brother on the ISS. In that Twin Study the difference between the two was studied. Although differences were indeed found in, for example, the gene composition of the spaceman, the conclusion turned out to be that the differences were not very significant. It was already known that people can stay in space for a long time without major complaints, and Kelly and Kornienko also did not break a record. Valeri Polyakov once stayed 437 days in the Russian space station.
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International cooperation
The physical experiments on astronauts are also largely intended to investigate what the obstacles and possibilities for future space flights are. Experts say that not the experiments, but the unique international collaboration that has been going on for about 25 years is the real benefit of the space station. Astronauts as Michael López-Alegría says against the Washington Post that the station is ‘a diplomatic instrument’. “There are strong tensions, especially between the US and Russia, but in the space world we still have to work together.” ISS program manager Kenny Todd also praises the program. He mentions it to National Geographic ‘a kind of mini United Nations’.
There have been voices about it for years to award the Nobel Peace Prize to the ISS. “When you think of those twenty years of people in space, straight and gay people, Muslims, Christians and atheists, all those colors and lifestyles, all those people who come together and have developed that one module into an international outpost the size of a football field without fighting and without war … That’s worth a Nobel Prize, “former astronaut Leland Melvin told Washington Post. A collaboration between Russia and the Western world, once arch-enemies, at a time when the tensions between the countries are rising, is indeed worth something. Whether it is worth 150 billion is another question …
The future
NASA wants to slowly give parts of the ISS to the commercial industry
Meanwhile, the ISS is getting old. Too old, actually. Initially, the station was to be taken out of the running in 2018, but it was later extended until 2020 and now the program will not end until 2024 at the earliest. That does not necessarily mean the final end. The participating countries are looking for ways to keep the station operational, but with lower costs. Last year, NASA decided make the ISS available to commercial companies. That idea was suggested years ago, but was usually dismissed as unattainable. Managing the station would be too expensive for that – it will cost until 2024 about 2.5 billion euros per year. The admission of commercial parties such as tourists or filmmakers can reduce those costs slightly, but the lion’s share of the management costs still ends up with America and Russia. The idea has become more feasible than before, mainly because of the relatively low costs that new companies like SpaceX charge for a launch of both people and cargo.
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The fact that the International Space Station is also starting to show more and more problems became increasingly clear since last year. Then a hole was discovered, that has since been repaired.
But what’s the alternative? Theoretically, the ISS is still possible until at least 2028, says NASA. The space agency itself does not mind being less involved with the station. Since the end of the Space Shuttle program in 2011, it wants to give the business community a greater role for space travel. As a result, companies such as SpaceX, Boeing, Sierra Nevada Corp. and other old and new industries low Earth orbit take over while NASA can focus more on the moon. These companies could therefore continue to supply the station, send astronauts there, and thus partly bear the costs.
Commercial companies
At the same time, there are parties such as Axiom. They are working on commercial modules that can be connected to the space station, and which can be used, for example, as a hotel or specific other laboratories. That is easier said than done. Another promising company that promised that, Bigelow Aerospace, went bankrupt in March. That is not surprising when you consider that there is actually very little evidence that private parties are interested in flying to the ISS and also turning it into a sustainable revenue model.
And what about the other participating countries? Europe and Japan both have their own laboratories on board the station and would like to keep them. Perhaps the space agencies ESA and JAXA will have to contribute more in the future to help the station survive longer. These kinds of costs are never charged in cash. Instead, the agencies make cargo ships like the ATV and HTV, and Europa builds the Service Module for the American Orion capsule.
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Russia
Russia is a different story. The land built a significant portion of the station, said last year wanting to continue with this. In fact, a new Russian module, the Nauka module, will soon have to be connected to the station. Other modules are also planned, but it is not known when they will come. Because although NASA and Roscosmos still have a relatively good working relationship, it starts there cracks to come in. America is less dependent on Russia due to the development of SpaceX ‘Crew Dragon and Boeing’s Starliner. For that, America paid about 80 million euros per seat on a Soyuz rocket, but Russia will miss out on that income in the future. Russia also gives less and less money to its space program. The country is therefore looking increasingly to China, but Russia’s long-term vision for its space program remains vague. Until then, the country will probably stick to the ISS for as long as possible. Maybe long enough to win that Nobel Prize.
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