Theoretically, this is possible, but in practice it is extremely unlikely. In principle, the International Criminal Court was primarily created to deal with cases of military aggression, war crimes, and crimes against humanity.
First, neither Russia nor Ukraine has ratified the Rome Statute. Since 2014, Ukraine has recognized the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court — so the court can investigate crimes committed by the Russian military in the country (and does), but it cannot formally judge Russians. A special UN Security Council resolution would help circumvent this problem — but Russia is its permanent member and, of course, would veto such a resolution.
And even if Putin ends up in the dock in The Hague, it will be impossible to formally convict him of starting the war: from the point of view of legal technique, this charge is the easiest to prove, but without the ratification of the Rome Statute, he cannot be brought.
Secondly, there have only been two cases in recent history where an international court has issued an arrest warrant for a sitting head of state: the former Yugoslav court of Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic in 1999; The International Criminal Court – on Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir in 2009, but Milosevic only ended up in The Hague after his overthrow. Al-Bashir is imprisoned in Sudan.
Third, the International Criminal Court cannot start the trial in the absence of the accused, because the International Criminal Court does not have its bailiffs who are authorized to bring the accused to the court forcibly. The accused can hide for years in their own countries or in friendly countries, as the only pressure tool that the International Criminal Court has is An arrest warrant, and any country can simply refuse to comply with it – and no punishment will follow. In addition, the ICC in general often has to put up with an active political opposition, for example, al-Bashir himself, after his overthrow, went into hiding for some time in South Africa, which refused to extradite him to The Hague.
Fourth, like most other international institutions, the ICC faces a serious problem of legitimacy: the US global “hegemon” does not recognize its own jurisdiction, and even Donald Trump has imposed sanctions on ICC prosecutors and judges who were investigating war crimes. The US military in Afghanistan, as the Biden administration reversed the decision, meanwhile, politicians in Washington are more likely than others to stand up to Putin’s trial in The Hague, and the US president even openly calls the Russians a “war criminal.”
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