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The interactive map of Strasbourg researchers and doctors against the epidemic


The interactive France map allows monitoring by department. – ICube laboratory at the University of Strasbourg, Strasbourg University Hospital (biostatistics service of the public health service)

With a world map and a
map of France, accessible online, a team of university researchers and CHU doctors,
Strasbourg, has built tools to better understand the progression of
the coronavirus epidemic.

“The numbers do not mean everything,” justifies doctor Thibaut Fabacher, who started a month ago by making the world map. The Johns Hopkins University Reference Card displays the number of gross positive cases for each country. But that doesn’t allow you to fully appreciate the magnitude in each country. Our first idea was to represent this number of cases reported to the population of each country. It quickly showed that Italy was not on the right path, like Iran, in particular. “

The surprise of Iceland

With a click, you get a map where most of the Western European countries appear in dark purple, with 169.82 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in France, while China, in orange, does not. declared “only” 6 per 100,000 inhabitants. “In other words, 10,000 deaths reported to a population of 67 million inhabitants does not have the same scope as that of 1.5 billion inhabitants,” explains Professor Nicolas Meyer, of the CHU.

Another example is Iceland. “We don’t talk about it, with a small number of cases. But when you relate them to its population, the country appears in black on the map, ”says Dr. Fabacher. The 1,616 Icelandic cases represent 475.65 positive cases declared per 100,000 inhabitants, almost three times that in France.

The Vosges, hard hit

Following the same principle, the ICube team offers a map of the French departments. Cumulative hospitalizations per inhabitants, cumulative deaths per inhabitants … With these criteria, it is the eastern part of France which appears in dark color. “You have to be careful, sometimes deaths are counted in one region while they belong to a neighboring region, warns Professor Meyer. This is all the more the case for hospitalizations. The territory of Belfort takes into account the Doubs and the Haute-Saône. “

In the Grand-Est, the map notably shows that the number of deaths in the
Vosges was particularly important: compared to their population, the figure (35.6 per 100,000 inhabitants) is comparable to that of the Moselle (37.55 per 100,000 inhabitants)

Plan hospital needs

The French map shows the number of hospitalizations, but also the number of people in intensive care, over the period that we want to study. We can compare the evolution of the epidemic from one week to the next, for example.

“Within the Strasbourg CHU, we use this map to forecast bed requirements, it is one element among others to plan as much as possible,” says Professor Meyer. It is also used in health establishments, to get an idea of ​​what is happening in the surrounding regions. This allows, in conjunction with the ARS, to facilitate the reorganization of services to better accommodate patients. “

The long awaited peak of the epidemic

Does the card confirm the hope of a slowdown of the epidemic in France? “For the moment, we have a little feeling, while remaining cautious, that its growth is slowing down,” answers Professor Meyer. But the variations are not enough to say. We must take into account patient transfers and we are not on long enough times. We are monitoring the data very carefully, pending the moment when we can consider that we have crossed the peak. But it is after the fact that we can be sure. “

“The epidemic is ahead of the game,” says Professor Meyer. We can only describe it to try to understand how it will behave. With tools like mapping, we are trying to shorten this delay. “

  • The card was produced by Dr Fabacher in collaboration with the infectious diseases department of the University Hospitals of Strasbourg, the method group in clinical research of the public health service (Pr Meyer) and the laboratory of biostatistics and medical informatics (faculty of medicine , Pr. Sauleau).
  • All three are members of the IMAGeS team of the ICube laboratory (CNRS, University of Strasbourg, Engees, Insa Strasbourg).
  • The data come from Johns Hopkins University and Public Health France.

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