The Earth is currently experiencing the El Niño weather phenomenon. Normal global weather is going through a major overhaul. Areas around the equator that are normally dry and cold are now becoming wet and warm, and drought is increasing in other areas. But does El Niño also affect the weather in the Netherlands?
The greatest influence of El Niño can be found in the countries around the equator. One of the consequences is that it will become warmer and wetter along the coast of America, especially in Central America and Peru. In countries such as Zimbabwe and the south of Madagascar, there is often severe drought during an El Niño. It will also be considerably drier in Indonesia, the Philippines and Australia, because the showers will mainly move over the Pacific Ocean.
In some countries, El Niño causes more forest fires. Photo: Adobe Stock/toa555
Another consequence is that hurricane activity over the Atlantic Ocean is declining, but more typhoons are forming over the Pacific Ocean. Guam, Japan and Taiwan are therefore more likely to experience natural disasters, while China and the Philippines are less often in the course of the typhoons. This is because the water off the coast becomes less warm there.
Read more about what El Niño is and what the consequences are of this natural phenomenon here.
Flooding is also a result of El Niño. Photo: Adobe Stock/Montree
What does it mean for the Netherlands?
The changes in the weather around the equator certainly affect the weather further away from the equator. Remnants of hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean often move from North America towards Europe and thus influence the weather in our country. Sometimes this results in quite stormy autumn weather, when the remnants move across our country. And then sometimes a cool and changeable period starts.
If the hurricane remnants move more towards Iceland or the north of Scandinavia, then a warm southern current often arises with us. And then we enjoy late summer weather. With fewer hurricanes, we’ll also be dealing with less hurricane remnants in our area in the fall. This may result in a tighter western circulation in our country, resulting in changeable autumn weather with normal temperatures. In addition, there are less often pronounced cold or warm periods.
However, the link between El Niño and the weather in Europe is tenuous. Some trends can be deduced from the statistics. During an El Niño, eastern Spain often becomes drier and warmer in winter and spring. In southern England, northern France, the Benelux and Germany it will be wetter than average in spring.
Rainy weather. Photo: Jolanda Bakker
Natte Nederlandse lenses na El Niño
In the past, spring in the Netherlands was almost always wetter than normal after an El Niño winter, and research by KNMI has shown this connection. After the strong El Niño of the winter of 1997-1998, we experienced a soaking wet spring. The most recent and very strong El Niño of winter 2015-2016 was also followed by a slightly too wet spring. There was 193 mm against 173 mm normal. Not only the spring, but the entire first half of 2016 was then particularly wet. Only in 1998 it was slightly wetter.
Read also: This is the influence of its counterpart La Niña on the weather in the Netherlands
Yet the capriciousness of the Dutch weather is greater than the influence of El Niño. This probably also has to do with the strength of El Niño. For example, a very weak El Niño in the winter of 2019-2020 was followed by an exceptionally dry and record sunny spring, in which there was a record large precipitation deficit. The year before, after a fairly weak El Niño, a normal amount of rain fell.
In short: the chance of a wet spring after an El Niño winter is greater than average, but this does not mean that spring is necessarily wet. In addition, the amount of precipitation says nothing about the duration of precipitation. A wet spring with heavy showers and lots of sun in between will be experienced by many people as more pleasant than a gray and cool spring with often prolonged rainfall.
2023-08-20 05:07:43
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