Among other things, the National Institute of Public Health (NIPH) proposes changes to the quarantine rules for close contacts.
– Extensive immunity in the population means that outbreaks are more easily brought under control, and that few become seriously ill. It is probably less proportionate now to maintain such an intrusive measure as strict quarantine for all close contacts, writes FHI in its latest risk assessment , which came on Monday.
In recent days, the government has considered what will happen to the further reopening of Norway, after stage four of the reopening plan was postponed until the end of July / beginning of August. A clarification will probably come at the government’s corona press conference on Wednesday.
– Society has already opened up significantly, and there is only one step left. We have given our input to the government, which will eventually make a decision, says chief physician Preben Aavitsland in FHI to NTB.
Infection increases
Last week, FHI director Camilla Stoltenberg announced that they expected the infection to increase in the future, and this week we see a clear trend towards that.
The latest figures show 330 corona infections in one day in Norway, 135 more than last week and the highest infection rate in a single day since 1 June.
In the risk assessment that came on Monday, it is considered moderately probable that the increasing infection will continue over the next two months, with perhaps up to two to three thousand cases of infection a week.
– Small consequences of increased infection
NIPH considers that such an increase will have little consequence for the population, for the health service in general and for the hospitals in particular. Among other things, because so many are now vaccinated.
– The risk of congestion in the hospitals during this period will probably be small, also because fewer of the infected will have a serious course. Municipalities must deal with outbreaks. Infection detection can be demanding when patients have had many close contacts, but in light of high vaccination coverage, the infection detection and quarantine regime can be adjusted, FHI writes in the risk assessment.
Aavitsland will not say how they envisage the new regime.
– We have submitted a proposal to the government about this, and it will be public when the government has made a decision, he says.
Very little dangerous for young people
The latest risk assessment emphasizes that the emergence of the delta variant of the coronavirus makes the infection situation more uncertain, and that vigilance is therefore necessary. This also means that NIPH only has “medium confidence” in its own assessment.
The conclusion is, however, that the overall risk of the covid-19 epidemic in August-September is small.
– There may be an increase in the number of cases, but the number of serious cases will still be low so that the consequences are small, the report states.
Vulnerable are well protected
Aavitsland points out that when the most vulnerable are vulnerable and well protected, it will mainly be young people who can be infected.
– And for them, this is a very little dangerous disease, he points out.
The vaccination has already changed dramatically the proportion of infected people who become seriously ill.
– This winter, 100 new cases meant 3-4 new hospital admissions the following week. Now there is just over 1 admission per 100 cases, says the superior.
According to the recent report, FHI has also not found any signs that the proportion who become seriously ill is higher for the delta variant, which is now dominant in Norway.
– In contrast to the findings from other countries, preliminary analyzes of Norwegian data do not indicate an increased risk of hospitalization with covid-19 as the main cause among people infected with the delta variant compared with Alfa, FHI concludes.
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