In the movie “World War Z”, the United Nations has a decision-making group with ten people. As long as nine people have the same position (oppose or support) on any matter, the tenth person is obliged to stand against it. noodle.
The reason is that the tenth person must find the needle in the haystack and find the problem point from a pile of sand to avoid the blind spots caused by one statement. This blind spot is the most difficult to find, but it is also necessary for someone to step on the opposite side to ask questions and debate. Because of the lack of different opinions and one-sided views, the blind spots and wrong judgments formed are often quite fatal.
When all the opinions in the market are one-sided and the winds are all blowing in the same direction, then what is more important is thinking and preparation against the wind.
Let me give a very simple example first:
Assume that a restaurant can only purchase and sell a limited number of 180 bottles of “Amin Winery Premium Red Wine” every six months. The owner of a certain restaurant bought 180 bottles of premium red wine and placed them in the warehouse. He plans to open one bottle a day in the next six months. Sell it and use it as the main attraction to attract customers to come and dine.
But two months later, the boss suddenly wanted to make a big profit, so he held a party and used up all the wine. Then in the next four months, he won’t have “Amin Winery Premium Red Wine” to sell, right? He only has some ordinary or cheap wines left to sell.
Then one day a distinguished guest came to the restaurant and asked, if you had a party like this and drank “Amin Winery Premium Red Wine”, would it be enough to sell it for half a year?
The boss just said: “We still have wine in the warehouse. Do you want to make a reservation? You can get a discount on this meal!”
But this distinguished guest came for the “Amin Winery Premium Red Wine” and expressed his wish to inspect the wine in the warehouse, but the boss refused to inspect it. So the distinguished guest said, “If I don’t get checked, I won’t eat here anymore,” and tried to get out of the way. As a result, the boss couldn’t resist the pressure of the VIP, so he opened the warehouse. The VIP took a look and found that the “Amin Winery Premium Red Wine” in the wine cabinet in the warehouse was empty. He realized that everything was a lie, so he left angrily. The owner lost customers, and the restaurant’s business plummeted over the next few months.
However, suppose you are an ordinary person today. When your boss is so vague and boasts that you still have alcohol, would you really take the time to dig in and check it out? Maybe they will wait until the food is actually served to realize that they have been bluffed, right?
Of course, there will be some people who insist on going against the flow and check carefully, only to expose the lie.
Think of the quota of red wine as the space/limit that a stock can grow.
Let’s switch back to the perspective of investing in stocks and think about it:
When a stock has risen in advance, will the investment value still emerge in the future?
If the profit potential of a stock is limited, and it has soared in a short period of time, is it likely that subsequent profits will appear and continue to surge?
I think everyone should understand the answer: after you eat the stored grain in advance, there will be nothing to eat later. After using the profit from the future rise, the possibility of profit is very low.
For relevant examples, we can see this phenomenon of “overspending and draining” from some soaring stocks in the past, such as: the Three Heroes of Navigation, AI Concept Stocks, Tourist Hotel Stocks, the Four Gentlemen of Heavy Electronics, Electronics Stocks, Three Thousand Gold and Four Thousand Gold, Green power stocks and solar energy have all experienced this phenomenon.
Wan Hai 2615, one of One Piece, let’s ask the mentality of those who chased the highs at that time, and the mentality of selling at a loss after being trapped.
The retail investors chasing the high of 26.15 million Hai, after the baptism of time, just more than three months of decline and the profit later, you see how badly they lost.
There are also 2382 Quanta and AI concept stocks that have been very popular recently. Many people told retail investors how attractive the future prospects are and how they have just grown. As a result, the stock prices have been high until next year and the next year. No one believes it, and they wait until they suffer big losses. A bunch of people choose to retreat, delete APPs, or simply not watch stocks. These are the wrong operating methods deliberately taught to you by the main force.
Then after more than two months, Quanta 2382 fell from 282 to below 200 yuan. Is there still a chance for it to rise again? I am skeptical, because it is very difficult for the main force to recover the principal itself. This is cruel fact, but retail investors don’t seem to want to face it
3231 Wistron in the AI group has dropped below 100 yuan from 161.5 yuan in more than three months. Have you noticed that the end of chasing highs is to get stuck and lose money? Don’t learn that if I don’t sell, it won’t be a loss. That kind of bad logic
People who are chasing C&W 3231, are you feeling helpless and want to cry now?
3661 Shixin-KY shares of high-priced stocks, although you see new highs, but one day the stock price hits new lows, I hope you will not faint in the room crying.
High-priced stocks 3443 ideas, usually such high-priced stocks attract rich retail investors to chase high prices, but now the reason why wealthy retail investors will not chase high prices is that the market is not in good condition and they will not chase high prices, so there will be a temptation to attract retail investors to look. Recently, the stock market has been chasing high-priced stocks because of favorable news.
When all the opinions in the market are one-sided and the winds are all blowing in the same direction, then what is more important is thinking and preparation against the wind.
The same logical concept is shared with you here.
