International•8 Aug ’23 15:19 Author: Thijs Baas
The single most important result of the Jeddah Summit is simply that China participated. That is a hopeful sign, says former MIVD boss Pieter Cobelens, because the country is sending a signal that it does not want to be seen as constantly aligned with Russia. “It’s the only way to get to the negotiating table – the place where we can end the war in Ukraine.”
Apart from the presence of approximately forty countries, not much has been achieved in Jeddah, Cobelens acknowledges. Nevertheless, the large turnout is an annoying signal for Russia. They could have said no and stayed away. And even if the content is nothing to write home about, they will meet again in four to five months, it has been agreed.’ And any initiative to sit around the negotiating table is welcome as far as Cobelens is concerned.
They do what they can with what they have. Zelensky is thus fulfilling his word to bring the war to Russia.’
Former MIVD boss Pieter Cobelens
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Meanwhile, tensions on the Polish-Belarussian border are rising. The big question is how to deal with the troops of Wagner Group. Poland seems to want to close the border because there are indications that Belarus is planning to send large numbers of refugees there. If Wagner Group people cross the border, there is in fact an Article 5 situation, says Cobelens. ‘So it is not surprising that Poland strengthens its borders and, as far as I am concerned, also closes them.’
The most important thing about the Jeddah Summit is simply that China participated. And that is a hopeful sign, says former MIVD boss Pieter Cobelens, because the country is still sending a signal that it should not be seen as constantly aligned with Russia. (Photo by Pavel Neznanov on Unsplash)
Logistics under pressure
The logistical lines of the Russians are coming under increasing pressure. In the north they have made some progress, in the south the many Russian mines are very slowing down the Ukrainian advance. But you can see from the Ukrainian drone attacks and attacks on the bridges that the logistics of the Russians are slowly but surely being routed through the Donbas. “And when they do, they’ll be within range of the Ukrainian artillery.”
In the absence of Western weapons, Ukraine has resorted to self-assembled drones. The country is indeed working on Russian logistics, given the damage to a Russian warship in a Russian port. They do what they can with what they have. Zelensky is thus fulfilling his word to bring the war to Russia.’
Also read | China wants follow-up session after Ukraine summit in Jeddah
The Ukrainian president also did this during the drone attacks towards Moscow. This makes it increasingly difficult for Putin to explain to his people that it is ‘only’ a military operation. He also comes under fire from his people. Zelensky has not yet brought Russia to its knees, but he is eroding the credibility in Putin’s immediate circle. “It would be a special operation, now the bloody great Russia is being attacked.”
Crack in Putin’s foundation
It is becoming increasingly difficult for Putin to explain to his people. And after all, every crack in the foundation under Putin is one. Russia cannot tolerate these humiliations. Missile attacks affect Ukrainian grain installations on a fairly large scale and in Syria Russia has previously shown what it is capable of: putting the population under psychological pressure without any problems with attacks on crucial facilities. ‘That’s a picture we already know from the Russians.’
2023-08-08 13:19:56
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