Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri does not hide his surprise at the negative reaction of the Lebanese Forces, the Kataeb Party, and some opposition forces to his call for dialogue. What the President of the Council thinks is beyond the issue of mere rejection, and he goes to ask about the repercussions and backgrounds, and what may result from this impasse, knowing that the participation of the opposition forces in the dialogue blocks the way for the head of the Free Patriotic Movement, Gebran Bassil, so that he is not the first and only negotiator. with the duo. Many questions revolve around whether there is an external link to these positions, which may carry more dangerous indicators.
Berri’s call came in light of the coordination with the French and the Maronite Patriarch Bechara Al-Rahi. He is still adamant about it. But what is certain is that dialogue will not succeed in the absence of opposition forces.
quorum and disruption
These forces seek to expand their framework, by seeking to form an opposition political front, which includes about 31 opposition deputies and seeking to increase their number, in addition to communicating with political forces not represented in Parliament, to repeat the experience of “Bristol 2005”, and to announce a project to confront the party God and Amal movement politically, dropping their efforts to bring their candidate to Baabda. On the other hand, the sources of the Shiite duo believe that this escalation in the discourse of the Lebanese Forces and the Kataeb Party is due to their sense of seriousness in progress in the efforts made by Hezbollah and the Amal movement to provide the necessary votes for Suleiman Franjieh to win the presidency.
In this context, Berri’s meetings with several parliamentary blocs emerged, most notably the Moderation bloc, in addition to meetings held by Sunni deputies, the most recent of which was a meeting with Representative Faisal Karami and the bloc to which he belongs. This highlights the efforts to widen the margin of Sunni deputies who support Franjieh’s option or are open to it, especially since Berri had assured the moderate representatives that what he meant by successive sessions is no different from the issue of holding an open session in successive sessions, which means allowing the election of the president with 65 votes, but on the condition that a constitutional quorum is provided. That is, 86 deputies, without that, the duo will be able to disrupt the quorum. In the event that a positive development occurs on the line of the Free Patriotic Movement and the party, then it becomes possible to secure a quorum for the election of Franjieh, especially since, according to Berri, the democratic meeting will not be opposed to holding the session or obstructing it, as long as a main Christian party has proceeded in this settlement. Therefore, the Democratic Gathering, even if it decides to disrupt the quorum for one or two sessions, will not be able to continue the disruption.
Dialogue with Basil
The duo seems confident of his ability to win more votes from Sunni representatives, to increase the number of votes that Franjieh will receive. And by the estimates of the two, between 3 and 6 Sunni representatives who are not allied with the party can join the settlement. But the most important thing is to achieve progress on the line of communication with the Free Patriotic Movement and its leader, Gebran Bassil. In this context, the atmosphere seems contradictory. Some say that this dialogue, whose practical and technical sessions will start next Friday between two committees representing the two parties, will need a long time to agree on key points, especially in light of the disagreement over how to divide the districts in the expanded administrative decentralization, and the disagreement over the financial mechanism for them and giving them the right to legislate and establish Effective and independent security forces. On the other hand, other sources say that dialogue with the movement is making progress, and there is a great possibility of reaching an understanding with Basil.
However, the calculations remain much further than that, especially in light of the main Christian forces’ rejection of the issue of electing Franjieh, and the rejection of dialogue or what they call the refusal to give legitimacy to Hezbollah through dialogue with it. Failure to provide a broad regional, international and internal umbrella that provides the necessary guarantees for Franjieh’s election will result in more fragmentation, because at that time “expanded decentralization” will become a fait accompli imposed by these Christian forces that will announce their refusal to cooperate with or recognize the president, which will establish political divisions. Popular, regional, on the basis of those who support “submission” to Hezbollah’s authority, and those who reject it. This will raise the threat to the “unity of the entity”.
2023-09-06 21:09:13
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