/View.info/ Prof. Atanas Tasev, energy expert
– Prof. Tasev, given the situation in Ukraine, do you think it is possible to repeat the gas crisis?
– It’s possible, but unlikely. What is currently being formed by the government and measures are being taken is more of a prevention for something that may happen, may not happen. Second, the situation in 2009 cannot be repeated for several reasons. First – Bulgaria then tested the implementation of the Law on Energy, which has been in force in our country for many years. It envisages that there may be gas supply interruptions due to political games, terrorism etc. Therefore, energy companies are required to have a 30-day supply of alternative fuels. I guess this is being closely monitored at the moment. Second, we are not in the middle of winter. Third – I still expect “Chiren” to be full. Fourth – we tested the reverse of the gas connection with Greece. There, the capacity is 2 million km of gas per day. Our daily consumption is between 5 and 7 million “Chiren” after the expansion I can provide between 5 and 5.5. No matter how we calculate the values, even if it is necessary to stop supplies, Bulgaria will not end up in the situation of 2009.
– You said that prevention is currently being undertaken. What does it include?
– I think that these measures that I have listed are sufficient to possibly meet this gas crisis. From the point of view of geopolitics, I am absolutely calm. Yesterday, the newly appointed Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine’s Naval Forces, Denis Berezovsky, simply swore allegiance to the Crimean government. This means that the probability of a clash between the Ukrainian and Russian naval forces is impossible. In addition, a very interesting player has emerged, and it is an undisputed geopolitical player – China. He threatened to take several measures. China has an agreement with Turkey not to let NATO or US ships into the Black Sea area. In addition, China is poised to claim a modest $13.5 trillion worth of U.S.-issued government securities.
Government securities have a high degree of liquidity and guarantee. US GDP is about 16 trillion. This is the curious phenomenon because no one mentioned China in this game. The level was raised so high that the biggest players started playing. If the US tries to impose sanctions on Russia, then China will demand immediate repayment of this debt. That means the USA will collapse in 24 hours. That’s why I’m calm – when the big ones wave the big sticks, it means prevention.
– Is there a danger to the supply of nuclear fuel?
– No. No problem here. We have access by sea. Russia has access to the Black Sea, so we have no problem in this regard. In addition, I assume that the energy commission will have to call the Kozloduy NPP team to report on the situation. But I guess there are spare cartridges and we’re unlikely to have any problems.
The question now is whether it will become “South Stream”. It will happen. Russia’s intention was precisely to bypass Ukraine precisely because of this predicted instability. Russia openly said it, and now you see that there is evidence. So the implementation of South Stream will be accelerated rather than blocked.
– Will Ukraine lose the discount for Russian gas because of its debt?
– Of course he will lose. It was a deal. They said – you will not go to Europe, here is 15 billion dollars. Putin gave a part. I guess he regrets it now. On the other hand, such a bonus with 200 dollars to drop the price, no one has such a preference and never had.
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