The entire Western press commented on the alleged death of Yevgeny Prigozhin – the leader of the private military company “Wagner”. One of the questions that particularly excites journalists and experts is how the death of Prigozhin will affect Russia’s presence in Africa.
The Kremlin is trying to increase its influence in African countries, amid harsh international economic sanctions and the political isolation Russia has fallen into after its invasion of Ukraine.
In recent years, Wagner has played an important role in advancing Russian interests on the African continent.
The mercenary company is engaged in activities in countries such as Libya, Sudan, Mali, Central African Republic, Mozambique, Burkina Faso and Niger.
Basically, its members there perform such tasks that are beneficial to the regime in the Kremlin, such as supporting revolutions and coups.
According to a number of international organizations, there is a lot of evidence that “Wagnerians” have mistreated civilians in African countries.
Moreover, as noted by British military conflict expert Mike Martin, “Wagner” actually controls most of the African refugee routes to Europe.
All this has turned Prigozhin’s military formation into a powerful leverage for Vladimir Putin’s influence in African politics. But Prigozhin’s death, which appears to be a planned action, will greatly alter Russia’s position in Africa.
The question is whether Putin will discover a new form of interaction with Prigozhin’s mercenaries, and moreover, whether they themselves will want to remain at the disposal of the Kremlin? And if it turns out that they do not want such a thing, then how will Russia maintain its influence in Africa.
The BBC is trying to explain precisely and clearly what happened, because according to them, the key to solving the complex case can be found in the past events.
Brookings Institution security expert Wanda Felbab-Brown believes that Vladimir Putin will want to keep the Wagner units in Africa and the Middle East, but will carry out a large-scale purge of the leadership structures to weaken their loyalty to the dead Yevgeny Prigozhin and to strengthen ties with the Kremlin.
“The restructuring that would satisfy Putin, including Wagner’s operations in Russia and Ukraine, looks like this: transferring some personnel to the Russian armed forces, partially disarming the remaining units, giving them freedom of action, but under a new guide.
Such a restructuring would help minimize the influence of Prigogine’s authority among the mercenaries,” Felbab-Brown argued in an interview with CNN immediately after Prigogine’s failed rebellion in July.
Investigative journalist and founder of the Bellingcat project Hristo Grozev believes that GRU General Andrey Averyanov could become one of Russia’s new protégés in Africa.
According to Grozev, Averyanov is responsible for the GRU’s covert operations around the world, including the Novichok poisonings, the bombings and other murders. His file also includes the attempted murder of Skripal and his daughter, Grozev claims.
He also believes that Averyanov may have been involved in the liquidation of Prigozhin.
Hristo Grozev draws attention to the fact that General Averyanov was introduced by Putin to delegations from African countries at the Russia-Africa summit in July, which speaks of a certain role assigned to him.
“Wagner” = Prigogine
According to some observers, “Wagner” would not be able to survive without Prigogine. And the question rests not only on the personal authority in the structure, but also on the peculiarities of the functioning of the company, especially when its members are located in Africa and the Middle East.
Much of Wagner’s African empire was built on disinformation operations, the protection of dark commercial interests and crude mercenary activity, relying on the personal semi-gangster connections of Prigogine himself and his associates, writes Guardian political columnist Peter Beaumont.
Beaumont explains that the Kremlin tried to court African leaders, especially in countries with military governments, but it was Prigogine who managed to build close ties with warlords, with the organizers of military coups and with corrupt politicians and businessmen.
Prigogine demonstrated an entirely different level of commitment and capability, Beaumont believes.
According to him, “Wagner” is an inseparable part of Yevgeny Prigogine, and with his death, Africans, and in general all observers, will witness the end of a mercenary company and more specifically of the form by which it was known up to that point.
The British political scientist Samuel Ramani, author of the book “Russia in Africa”, points out that together with Prigozhin, the co-founder and commander of the PMC Dmitry Utkin probably died.
He calls Utkin’s death, if ultimately confirmed, an event of seismic proportions that will completely change the foundations of Wagner.
Long-term plan to replace Wagner
Among foreign observers, the version is being launched that the Kremlin has long wanted to give up the services of “Wagner” outside of Russia and in particular in Africa.
The BBC’s Frank Gardner revealed that the GRU military intelligence had previously been instructed to develop a plan to replace most of the Wagner contingent in Africa with an alternative mercenary group.
Yevgeny Prigozhin was aware of these intentions and fiercely opposed them. He came from Mali to Russia precisely in order to convince local politicians that such “rearrangements” are unacceptable.
Thus, the plane crash near Tver, in which Yevgeny Prigozhin died, will put the future of “Wagner” entirely in the hands of Vladimir Putin.
But the Kremlin will also face another problem – what to do with 25,000 fighters scattered in several African countries. Fighters passionately loyal to their dead leader and contemptuous of the Russian military leadership.
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2023-08-25 04:19:00
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