The victory of the united opposition forces in the Polish elections will return the country to the path of liberal democracy, but in case of the opposite outcome, it would increasingly implement a policy similar to Hungary and undermine the unity of the European Union (EU) and the West, this is the opinion expressed by the East of the German Marshall Fund in an interview with the LETA agency during the “Riga Conference”. direction executive director Michals Baranovskis.
These elections determined the trajectory of Poland as a liberal democracy in the EU, according to the expert, comparing the outcome of the elections to “dodging a bullet”. According to him, if “Law and Justice” (PiS) were to win, the country would experience the media control policy implemented by this party, which would take Poland much further along the path that Hungary is currently on.
Although the opposition is a group of disparate forces, Baranovski stressed that the public pressure on these parties to cooperate and form a successful and sustainable government is enormous. “The voters gave the opposition leaders a very clear mandate, both in domestic and foreign policy, to neutralize the policies implemented by the PiS government in the last eight years. These voters will not be at peace with the situation if the opposition leaders are unable to find solutions, and are ready to punish them in that case,” thinks Baranovskis.
Baranowkis explained that the level of emotion that drove people to the polls is not as visible outside of Poland. These emotions create a very strong pressure on the opposition leaders to agree even within such a different group. This is partly why the turnout in the elections was so high – 74%, which is 12% higher than in the historical elections in 1989.
He emphasized that the government will have a sufficient majority to lead the country for the full term of office – it will have 248 seats in the parliament, which has a total of 460 deputies.
“It will be the government that will focus on rebuilding the judiciary in domestic policy. Many Polish and foreign observers considered these elections as the last chance to stop the decline of democracy in Poland,” said the expert.
Baranowski is also convinced that the new government will be able to neutralize the tension in relations with Ukraine, which is also desired by Poland’s partners and allies, first of all, the United States.
He reminded that at the beginning of the war, both the Polish government and society were very supportive of Ukraine – both in their statements and in their practical assistance. Since April, however, Polish-Ukrainian relations have plunged into their deepest crisis since the start of the war, triggered by the entry of Ukrainian grain into the Polish market and the corresponding impact on grain prices. Very soon, the crisis escalated to a political level, which ultimately led to Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki announcing that Poland would no longer supply arms to Ukraine. “It was partly a purely political statement,” added the executive director of the German Marshall Fund’s Eastern direction.
He believes that the issue of grain will eventually become less important, at least compared to the issue of the delivery mechanisms of Ukrainian grain to the European Union (EU) and recipients outside the EU.
“I expect a change in rhetoric in relations with Ukraine, as well as an approach that will focus more on the support of Kyiv, from the perspective of the allies. I really hope that the restart of Polish-Ukrainian relations will be one of the first tasks that the new government will address,” summarized Baranovskis.
Evaluating the relatively opposite election results in Slovakia, he expressed hope that the case of Slovakia will not be as severe as the example of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. “Orbán is not only clearly weakening EU values, but also our unity in bilateral relations with Russia. His meeting with [Krievijas prezidentu Vladimiru] There is something completely unacceptable in Putin’s Beijing from the leader of one of the EU member states, when sanctions are directed against Russia for its brutal and unprovoked war against Ukraine,” the expert said.
However, he does not expect that [Slovākijas premjers Roberts] Fico will follow the same path, expressing the hope that “we will see much more pragmatism”. Baranovskis added that Fico’s rhetoric has not been too encouraging, moreover, it creates a noticeable division in the Visegrad bloc of countries, whose unity can no longer really be talked about.
“I think that there is a lot of work ahead for all of Europe, including the new Polish government, to ensure that Slovakia does not follow in Orbán’s footsteps, both by creating unhealthy close relations with Russia and by its actions undermining the rule of law in the EU. It is very important to avoid a new Bratislava- The creation of the Budapest axis, which would replace the Budapest-Warsaw axis,” said Baranovski.
He pointed out that Hungary’s example probably demonstrates the need for deeper reforms in the EU, which are also approaching. The expert emphasized that one thing has changed and could create a window of opportunity – Budapest will no longer be able to count on Warsaw’s support when it violates EU rules, the basic principles of the rule of law and harms the unity of the EU in its policy towards Russia.
2023-11-04 12:03:58
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