With the Hang Seng Index hitting 30,000 points next year, will Hong Kong people spend the holidays more lavishly? (NurPhoto via Getty Images)
Recently, FWD Chairman Ma Shiheng said that the company has sufficient capital and will not “list at a low price”. He said that if the Hang Seng Index rebounds to 30,000 points next year and the valuation improves, the company will consider listing in Hong Kong.
In fact, the Hang Seng Index is indeed a reference indicator for many financial management decisions. The current level of 16,000 points is a “cheap price”, so companies will not “sell at a low price”.
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FWD Chairman Ma Si Heng said that if the Hang Seng Index rebounds to 30,000 points next year and the valuation improves, the company will consider listing in Hong Kong (Bloomberg via Getty Images)
“The downturn in the Hang Seng Index affects consumer sentiment”
The same logic can be extended to retail consumption and household investment plans. In terms of consumption habits, the business community has recently questioned the “Father of Lan Kwai Fong” Sheng Zhiwen’s statement on the recovery of the retail market. He believes that retail prosperity is “impossible”. It is unknown whether it is in line with the Hang Seng Index. It has something to do with the fact that it is far different from before the epidemic. There has been a saying in the market that “the downturn in the Hang Seng Index affects consumer sentiment.” Hong Kong people believe that it is difficult to make profits from the stock market, so they have tightened their spending and hoarded food to prevent hunger. On the other hand, the improvement in the Hang Seng Index and the expectation of interest rate cuts next year may indirectly affect the consumer market this Christmas. The Hang Seng Index is the key to whether Hong Kong people will “spent future money first”.
In addition to affecting listing decisions and consumption, the Hang Seng Index also seems to affect family investments such as childbirth. This year, Hong Kong’s fertility rate is the lowest in the world. Data shows that Hong Kong women only have an average of 0.8 children in their lifetime, which is lower than that in South Korea, Singapore, Macau and other places. For this reason The government will provide a subsidy of NT$20,000 for recruitment this year. However, some Hong Kong people have pointed out that childbirth is actually related to the confidence of the market. If the Hang Seng Index continues to improve, people will naturally feel at ease and plan for the future, and there will be no need to distribute money from the treasury. Data also shows that the Hang Seng Index has shrunk by nearly 30% in the two years since December 2021. The overall market transactions this year are sluggish. Could this be the reason for the decline in Hong Kong people’s confidence in having children?
If the Hang Seng Index reaches 30,000 points, will Hong Kong people have children? (NurPhoto via Getty Images)
Hang Seng Index and fertility rate continue to slump
According to statistics, Hong Kong’s fertility level has generally shown a downward trend over the past 30 years. The total fertility rate fell from 1,281 live births per 1,000 women in 1991 to 901 in 2004. The ratio subsequently rose back to 1,285 in 2012, then gradually dropped to 1,064 in 2019, and then further dropped to 772 in 2021. In the past, the fertility rate usually dropped significantly one or two years after the Hang Seng Index fell sharply. The Hang Seng Index had a wave of rise from 2009 to 2017, and Hong Kong’s fertility rate was also considered to be at a high level during the same period. Refer to the last 300 million-point rise in the Hong Kong stock market. trend, the fertility rate trend is also quite stable. The two nights may not be directly related, but the trend in recent years has indeed continued to be downward.
The Hang Seng Index 30,000 points not only reflects the mainland economy, but also partly reflects the situation of companies coming to Hong Kong to plant their flags.
When will 30,000 points appear?
Although the constituent stocks of the Hang Seng Index have been adjusted over the years, and the number of stocks reflecting the economic conditions of the Mainland is increasing day by day, the Hang Seng Index of 30,000 points can also roughly reflect the prosperity of Hong Kong’s social economy; it may be that foreign investors are favoring Hong Kong again and setting up offices in Hong Kong to raise funds. People are increasing their spending in Hong Kong, or it may be that a new wave of sectors from the mainland is coming to Hong Kong. For example, a batch of new tea drinks from the mainland are subject to mainland listing proposals (tea drink IPOs are not recommended), or they may all be “southern” IPOs in the coming year. Currently, at least Six new tea companies are reportedly considering listing. Among them, Mixue Ice City, which is rumored to have raised about US$1 billion, has recently planted its flag in Mong Kok to boost sales and consumption.
Or it may reflect that China’s domestic real estate companies will emerge from the crisis in the coming year, mainland tourists visiting Hong Kong will also increase per capita consumption, the retail market and the property market will be booming, Hong Kong residents will exchange properties, and the remaining money can be transferred to Japan, etc., the Hang Seng Index 30,000 points may reflect When these actual economic activities take place in Hong Kong and the market emerges from depression, the fertility rate of Hong Kong people will rebound.
However, Hong Kong people are not actually consuming. This morning, an article analyzed that Hong Kong’s retail sales in October reached 33.8 billion yuan, which has exceeded the same period in 2019 before the epidemic (30.1 billion yuan), and has also returned to the same period in 2018. More than 85%, but the single-month data has yet to be verified whether retail sales have fully recovered. And the ultimate premise is, when will the Hang Seng Index reach 30,000 points?
2023-12-19 08:00:22
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