Hello.
The Arab-Israeli conflict is a tragedy that affects the lives of a huge number of people. Let me make a reservation that the conflict did not start the other day, it has been going on for decades. At the time of its beginning, mobile networks were not developed, and people did not have phones in their pockets, so we do not have much documentary evidence. Today, on the contrary, everything happens almost live. You watch a video of missiles being launched, and after a short period of time a video appears with the result of the shelling. Both sides are actively posting such evidence, the number of documents is enormous, and their quality is quite high.
There are an overwhelming number of shocking videos and photographs on both sides. I have no friends in the Gaza Strip, but many who went to live in Israel. It is impossible to take sides in this conflict, just as it is impossible to act like a fool over people’s personal tragedies. It is also pointless to talk about politics, but it is possible and necessary to dwell on issues related to technology.
Let’s start with how our world works. Information determines our interests and provides constant nourishment. For example, Pavel Durov has mastered situational marketing; any high-profile event at the country level forces a reaction.
In fact, Telegram added Hebrew support (which is relatively easy to do) and highlighted that it provides secure communication plus the ability to read news. I think in Russia most of the operational information about the conflict was located on Telegram, people were scrolling through feeds non-stop, coming across the same photos and videos. But in a conflict zone, this tool could become new for many people; in other regions, the Telegram team has always done something similar during political unrest, conflicts, and so on. And due to this, Telegram’s audience has always grown faster than that of other companies; no one has done anything like this from a marketing point of view. Corporations are too clumsy, reaction to external events is too slow.
The media weight of the Arab-Israeli conflict has eclipsed all other topics. Which automatically means the appearance of fakes; they multiply like mushrooms after rain, and often not at all in the countries where the conflict is taking place, but in the outside world. In Russia, such a fake was the story that Israeli intelligence, together with American intelligence, missed an attack on Israel due to the fact that the attackers used smartphones from Huawei, and they could not be wiretapped; the United States does not have such capabilities. The news has no sources, it does not look very reliable, to put it mildly.
Intelligence operations do not rely solely on technical intelligence; it is often of a secondary nature (wiretapping, analysis of telephone movements, and so on). For many years, Israel relied on the purchase of information, agents who were recruited by intelligence. The quality of such agents and their quantity are unknown, but from a PR point of view in the outside world, it was highlighted that all operations are carried out at the highest level. In the eyes of ordinary people all over the world, the image of the Mossad was strengthened in every possible way; the PR campaign highlighted its strengths and hid all the failures, of which there were many, both in the past and in the present. The latest events are a resounding failure of both the Mossad and all US and allied intelligence services.
It probably needs to be said that the dissemination of information is becoming instantaneous. Guerrilla warfare tactics, the use of drones, as we see in Ukraine, have all received coverage, and such experience is quickly adopted. The Internet has become an ideal environment for learning, unfortunately, in terms of not only something creative, but also destructive. And rapid adaptation to new realities occurs not on the part of state institutions, but on the part of those who have a minimum number of such resources. Or on the part of states limited in their capabilities. Consider Iranian drones, weapons that have become extremely effective at low cost and ease of production. Even the interception of such a drone by air defense means big expenses for those who are defending themselves. The cost of such protection increases.
Israel is investing a lot of effort in the IT sector, but we know nothing about intelligence systems, video analysis, collected on the streets. Everything is shrouded in mystery, but from today’s events we can conclude that if such systems exist, they are completely ineffective or have been disabled. I don’t think that in Israel there are systems that analyze big data, for example, the movements of mobile phones, their anomalous activity. Even if such an analysis existed, it would hardly help in this situation; I will not dwell in detail on why the guerrilla tactics of the attackers would not have been detected.
Another fake appeared on the news channels – that a mass exodus from Israel has begun, the airports are filled with people. This is hard to believe; there was no evidence of this either. At a time when any even more or less noticeable event immediately attracts attention and documentary evidence appears, there is a lot of it. Right there – nothing, and this is an indirect sign that there is simply no such thing. And during the acute phase of the conflict, going to an airport where flights have been stopped is something strange, if not suicidal.
However, we can expect that when the situation calms down more or less, the “recruitment” of people who have good competencies in their fields will begin. This happens in all parts of the world, there are no exceptions. Some people want to go to other countries to avoid problems (human nature is the same everywhere). Some simply do not consider themselves a party to the conflict, like many Yandex developers who relocated to Israel. And a not very pleasant story begins for the company, in which employees will be ready to leave for other companies, but change their country of residence. The example of Yandex is not isolated; developers from many companies will move to other countries if the conflict lasts for a long time, and there are no reasons for ending it on the horizon.
The load on Israel’s IT sector will be enormous; many factors are at play here. Depression in the market associated with events, call for reservists (300,000 people mobilized), some of them from the IT sector. The market for the same development will not be calm, and for many companies the issue of relocating development offices to other countries will become acute. The risks of continuing to do business in Israel while selling products on the global market without dependence on Israel become too high. Many perceive the main danger not to be the direct risks of missile hits or a full-scale war, but rather attempts to isolate Israel in terms of telecommunications, broken communication lines, and incorrect operation of the Internet.
For example, on the first day of the attack on Israel, communications worked intermittently, residents of Tel Aviv and other large cities complained about this. The reason is not technical failures, but the fact that people actively used the connection; the load increased by a multiple of the usual values. Mobile networks do not have much safety margin – a typical story in many countries. People read the news, tried to find out what was happening to their loved ones, and one cannot blame them for this. It’s normal to worry about those who are important.
And the repetition of such situations is possible, which immediately makes Israel not the best place for international business, the advantages disappear. A country where the Internet works intermittently is not suitable for an IT business. The situation is developing dynamically, but we can expect a certain outflow of IT specialists; the question is how many there will be and in what time frame. This has happened in all corners of the world, a good example being Africa, a role model that has proven itself suitable for analyzing events. Israel is no exception.
Fighting directly affects the economy, and in a global crisis, it can also push some companies to bankruptcy, all together worsening business opportunities. This is an additional, external load.
In general, there is no catastrophe for business at the moment, but this is a deterioration of the entire environment, the emotional reactions of people who will strive to protect themselves. And in the short term we will see real changes. It looks like the Arab countries have learned a lot. Including how to inflict the greatest damage with fewer forces, which is long-term and which cannot be avoided (we are not talking about raids in which civilians were killed, this is an element of intimidation and a war crime, there can be no other interpretations, and this applies to both parties to the conflict).
The problem for the entire Earth is that we have dozens of large centers of tension, where each side studies the experience of others and can repeat it. And we are moving into a time when the techniques discovered will be replicated in other parts of the world. And the most important thing is that an inquisitive thought creates more and more new techniques. The Arab-Israeli conflict shows that high technology is not a guarantee of success. And this is a game changer for many.
2023-10-12 00:47:16
#Israel #High #technology #military #crisis #departure #specialists
