Migrants wait to be transported by U.S. Border Patrol agents at the U.S.-Mexico border May 12, 2023 in El Paso, Texas.
©JOHN MOORE Getty Images via AFP
Call for air?
In 2022, the United States welcomed as many immigrants as in the last four years.
Atlantico: In the United States, immigration is increasing to the point of reaching new records. It must be said that, since Joe Biden came to power, the policy is no longer the same: under the administration of Donald Trump, arrivals slowed down considerably before resuming at the end of his mandate. In 2022, explains NPR on its site, the country has welcomed as many immigrants as in the last four years. However, the laws themselves have not changed. How to explain it? Is it Joe Biden’s opening speech that creates a stir?
Jean-Paul Gourévitch : Overall, migrants are not concerned with laws but with their urgency. We are no longer in a process of immigration chosen by the host country but of immigration chosen by the migrants themselves who practice what I called “migratory shopping”: going to the country where they will find the most advantages and the least disadvantages. It’s human and it’s also what we do ourselves in our shopping or travel choices.
The process is particularly visible when migrants have several possible destination countries. But when they are limited, as is the case for those who come from Mexico, the Caribbean or Central America, they choose the most appropriate time depending on the attitude of the government of the host country. From this point of view, an open or lax speech is more encouraging than the reference to a wall protecting borders.
In France too, do political postures and speeches create stronger calls than legal provisions in matters of immigration? To what extent can this be used by political figures who wish to be able to show their electorate a certain firmness… without completely closing the floodgates to immigration?
France is a very popular destination in terms of education, health, access to social benefits, the presence of large diasporas and associations for the defense of migrants with an effective network, possibility of a long stay with a generous residence permit or regularization afterwards, a low requirement for knowledge of the language, an absence of taxation on fund transfers. It is much less so for training, access to employment, remuneration, good understanding with “natives”. It is not at all when it comes to housing. Migrants therefore do their “migratory shopping”. Obviously political leaders exploit migratory phenomena according to their electorate as we see with the radicalization of Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s speech, increasingly immigrationist and pro-Muslim. Those who would like to spare the goats and the cabbage find themselves, in period of strong migration crisis as is the case today, accused of not having a firm policy or even no policy at all.
In France, repressive measures against immigration meet with strong support from the population (7 out of 10 respondents say they are in favor according to a recent Odoxa-Backbone Consulting survey for Le Figaro). Likewise, nearly 8 out of 10 French people reject the policy applied by the government. He is preparing to respond with a new law on the issue. Given what has been mentioned previously, isn’t this missing (partially, at least) the problem?
What you say about polls is correct but my work is scientific and not political. I strive to make a sourced and documented inventory, to quantify the costs of migration with a revenue-expenditure balance and an approach to the profitability of investments made by the state, to develop the different scenarios of the near future with their consequences. It is not up to me to make a priori judgments on the existence of a law of which everyone is virtually unaware of the exact content.
What is the weight of the law in this equation?
The belief that a law will be respected by all and applied is an illusion. Fraud in all its components today represents 300 to 500 billion euros, or between 12 and 18% of GDP. In some neighborhoods the number of those who board surface public transport without tickets is greater than those who pay. The inspectors have almost disappeared and the drivers have other things to do than give fines. Public transport companies like RATP wash their hands of it and the State does not intervene since ultimately it is the taxpayer who pays the bill. Except that by developing the desire and pleasure of transgression, we encourage insubordination.
2023-09-16 09:51:41
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