Jakarta –
Death by poison, says the Syrian Islamic Council, is “a thousand times easier than reconciliation with the criminal groups that destroyed this country and slaughtered its people,” wrote the organization in Istanbul, Turkey, which represents religious authorities in the Syrian opposition.
However, the opposition’s antipathy is in contrast to the latest developments in the Middle East. Throughout this year, Bashar Assad’s government has made many state visits abroad. In fact, Damascus is officially undergoing isolation due to the brutal suppression of the 2011 Arab Spring uprisings.
Following the Syrian foreign minister’s visit to Saudi Arabia this week, Damascus is expected to be re-admitted to the Arab League by mid-May at the latest. Since the Security Conference in Munich, Germany, last February, Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Faisal bin Farhan al-Saud said that “in the Arab world there is a consensus that the status quo in Syria is no longer functioning.”
Normalization: A boon for the economy?
It is estimated that as much as 90 percent of Syria’s population lives below the poverty line. The Syrian Lira exchange rate fell by 75 percent, when the inflation rate hovered around 55 percent. As a result, rotating blackouts and water scarcity became commonplace. This situation is exacerbated by the high number of domestic refugees reaching 6.8 million people.
However, analysts believe that political rehabilitation for the government in Damascus will not improve the fate of the Syrian population directly.
Developments in the Middle East, “certainly are not driven by a desire to alleviate the suffering of Syrians or by regional ambitions to improve the lives of people there,” said Julien Barnes-Dacey, Director of the Middle East Program at the European Council on Foreign Relations. “What matters here is the regional order and the external impact of the Syrian conflict on the region, such as drug smuggling or refugees.”
The Syrian government is suspected of encouraging the trade of captagon, a type of amphetamine, which was reportedly widely used by Islamic State (ISIS) soldiers. Now, the volume of drug trafficking there reaches USD 50 billion.
Another thing that encourages the normalization of diplomatic relations between Arab countries and Syria is the prospect of returning refugees, as well as limiting the dependence of Damascus on the Iranian government. In return, Syria received political recognition and a rebuilding fund. Moreover, if the situation worsens, Arab countries are concerned about the impact on stability in the region.
“So, this normalization shows that the Arab region is shifting to a strategy of direct cooperation to deal with problems that affect them. So this does not indicate that there are new dynamics within Syria that open up new political spaces and can provide long-term and stable solutions for the Syrian people themselves. ,” said Barnes-Dacey.
The potential behind peace
One of the biggest positive impacts that can be expected is the convenience for Syrians to travel abroad. “Normalization will open access to travel,” said Hamid, a Syrian who lives in the opposition area. “The only thing I can think about is getting out of here. There is nothing good here. And emigration will always be better than joining the army, where I will be forced to contribute to the massacre.”
Zaky Mehchy, a researcher at the US think-tank, Chatham House, agrees with his opinion. According to him, opening the border “will benefit Syrians in general,” he told DW. “For example, diaspora residents can visit their families in Syria more easily. They will bring money with them and on a large scale this can revive the local economy.”
Although direct investment from the Gulf region is likely to be impossible, rich Arab countries can help finance reconstruction projects through debt, such as building a power plant. “We can only hope there are small benefits that will help Syrians survive,” said Barnes-Dacey.
Because normalization basically only benefits the Assad dynasty. “There will never be a good deal under an authoritarian regime,” said Mehchy. “So you can imagine whether there is a good agreement between the two authoritarian regimes?,” he added, referring to the kingdoms in the Gulf.
Syrian journalist Omar Albam helped produce this report from Idlib Province.
(rzn/ha)
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