2023-12-26 19:07 United Daily News reporter Chen Yousong/Taipei Real Time Report
Taiwan is about to elect a new president and legislators on January 13 next year. Mainland China not only defines this election as a choice between “peace and war”, but also sets the tone as a choice between “prosperity and recession” in the economy. Therefore, in terms of means, It can be seen that the mainland has recently determined that Taiwan constitutes a trade barrier and has suspended 12 ECFA chemical product tariff reductions. Scholars pointed out that this is the first time that China has resorted to economic and trade measures against Taiwan before an election. Faced with this challenge, Taiwan’s new government should face up to the mainland’s relevant investigation results, open up the import of some mainland products that have less impact on Taiwan, and take the initiative to shape the Cross-strait interaction.
On the afternoon of the 26th, the International Relations Research Center of National Chengchi University held a symposium on “Who will untie the knot between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait: Cross-Strait policies of the three parties’ presidential candidates and possible post-election situations.” Zhang Wuyue, associate professor of the Department of Diplomacy and International Relations of Tamkang University, made the above remarks at the meeting.
Zhang Wuyue pointed out that compared with the previous seven general elections since Taiwan’s first democratically elected president in 1996, Beijing used economic and trade means for the first time this time, highlighting the connection between economic issues and political mutual trust.
Xu Zunci, director of the Taiwan Association of Southeast Asian Nations Research Center at the China Economic Research Institute, also pointed out that the mainland’s suspension of tariff preferences for 12 petrochemical products in ECFA is the first time it has sanctioned products other than agriculture, fishery and food, which shows that the mainland is changing its approach.
Xu Zunci said that in the face of ECFA sanctions that may be canceled or expanded beyond petrochemical projects, first, Taiwan’s exports are bound to be affected, because we can’t just see the 12 sanctioned petrochemical products, but also affect its upstream and downstream products. Second, this will encourage Taiwanese businessmen to invest more in or outside mainland China to provide local market demand for the mainland, or to enjoy trade and tariff preferences between other countries and the mainland, which is not good for Taiwan. A happy situation.
The mainland has recently launched a series of economic and trade countermeasures against Taiwan, which is bound to become a top priority for Taiwan’s new government after taking office. As for how to solve the mainland’s determination that Taiwan constitutes a trade barrier, Xu Zunci said that the mainland’s official investigation report detailed which products Taiwan should be open to import, such as apples or electric vehicles, showing that the purpose of the investigation is to “open up the mainland’s market for Taiwan products.” .
She suggested that the new government should review the products designated by the mainland and analyze which products, after liberalization, will not impact local industries but replace imported products. In particular, Taiwan intends to join the CPTPP. Under the framework of this agreement, both sides of the Taiwan Strait must also significantly open their markets to each other.
Zhang Wuyue also called on the government to take stock of projects that can be “controlled by itself.” For example, among the 2,509 items that the mainland has identified as trade barriers, some of them are not produced in Taiwan but are open to imports from other countries. “It makes no sense that they are not open after the election.” It is also necessary to take inventory of projects that have less production in Taiwan and will have less impact on Taiwan due to opening up. “Only by taking the initiative can we shape (cross-strait) interaction.”
As for whether the mainland may interrupt cross-strait economic and trade exchanges due to the results of Taiwan’s presidential election? Zhang Wuyue mentioned that the “China Development Document No. 3” issued by the Communist Party of China in 1991 emphasized that “strengthening cross-Strait economic and trade exchanges is the most powerful tool to suppress Taiwan’s separation. Cross-Strait economic and trade exchanges must not only follow economic laws, but also serve the reunification of the motherland.” On this basis, cross-Strait economic and trade issues are regarded as a strategic means rather than a strategic goal for Beijing.
Therefore, Zhang Wuyue believes that even if the mainland may escalate its retaliation and even further suspend the ECFA early harvest list, the mainland “will never interrupt cross-strait economic and trade exchanges or abolish ECFA, thereby causing a complete decoupling of cross-strait economic and trade.”
Kou Jianwen, director of the National Chengchi International Relations Center, pointed out that Taiwan’s new president to be elected next year “may be the most difficult president”. In addition to the domestic political situation, he may become a “minority president” with less than half of the votes and less than half of the Congress. He also has to face The US presidential election in November may cause drastic changes in foreign policy. In comparison, mainland China’s “unification is a conspiracy, and economic laws are the basis.” It is Beijing that has higher stability.
Xu Zunci, director of the Taiwan Association of Southeast Asian Nations Research Center at the China Economic Research Institute, pointed out that the new government should deal with projects named by the mainland… Zhang Wuyue, associate professor of the Department of Diplomacy and International Relations at Tamkang University, pointed out that the government should deal with projects that can be “controlled by itself” Make a disk…
This symposium was held on the afternoon of the 26th at the National Chengchi International Relations Center. It was chaired by Kou Jianwen, director of the National Chengchi University International Relations Center. Zhang Wuyue, associate professor of the Department of Diplomacy and International Relations of Tamkang University, and Xu Zunci, director of the Taiwan Association of Southeast Asian Nations Research Center of the China Economic Research Institute, , Ding Shufan, honorary professor of the Institute of East Asian Studies at National Taiwan University, Zhang Dengji, professor of the Department of Political Science at National Taiwan University, Wang Xinxian, distinguished professor of the East Asian Institute and deputy director of the International Relations Center at National Taiwan University, and other scholars attended the talks.
ECFA, Communist Party of China, Taiwanese Businessmen, Cross-Strait Policies
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2023-12-26 11:07:51
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