After the arrival of the climatic phenomenon of “El Niño”, which will produce the retention of animals in the producing establishments.
Due to the drought, the slaughter of meat increased 20% in the last twelve months, which created an oversupply of meat in the domestic market that prevents prices from adjusting to inflation, according to a report by the refrigerators enrolled in the Chamber of Industry and Commerce of Meat and Derivatives of the Argentine Republic (CICCRA).
But this situation will be reversed by October, after the arrival of the “El Niño” climatic phenomenon, which will cause the retention of animals in the producing establishments.
“This withholding will drastically reduce the supply of meat in the domestic market, which is why prices will suffer strong increases, which we are estimating at 40%,” the sector report indicated. .
The cattle slaughter totaled 1,314 million heads in the sixth month of the year, and became the third highest in history.
Only in June 1981 and 2009 more animals were slaughtered than in the last month.
The slaughter of males amounted to 679.7 thousand heads in June 2023, which showed a year-on-year growth of 11.6%.
On the other hand, in June 634.1 thousand females were slaughtered, that is, 18.7% more than in June last year. Significant interannual increases were registered both in the slaughter of heifers and cows.
The greater dynamism of the slaughter of females in relation to that of males translated into a participation of females in the total slaughter equivalent to 48.3% in June 2023.
Three consecutive months have already passed with a participation of females greater than the upper limit of the interval that is consistent with the maintenance of the cattle herd, although we still cannot speak of liquidation of stock.
The female/total slaughter ratio rose to 47.4% in the first half of 2023 (+1.3 percentage points year-on-year), standing above the upper limit of the interval consistent with the maintenance of the cattle herd, as a result of the intense dry season that affected the main producing areas of the country in the last year and also the real rise in grain prices for much of 2022.
Regarding the production of beef, during June 2023 the combination of 1,314 million animals slaughtered and a hook weight of 226 kilos, generated a total of 297 thousand tons of bone-in beef (tn r/c/h). of beef.
When considering the first six months of 2023, the production of beef was equivalent to 1,656 million tons r/c/h, which showed a growth of 10.3% year-on-year.
Estimating exports of beef for 90 thousand tons r/c/h equivalent during last June, in the first half of the year 480.2 thousand tons r/c/h of beef would have been exported (+12.3%; +52 ,5 thousand tons r/c/h).
Consequently, 1,176 million tons r/c/h of bovine meat would have been delivered to the Argentine internal market, which implies that internal consumption would have absorbed a volume 9.5% greater than that of January-June of last year (+101 ,7 thousand tons r/c/h).
In June 2023, the mobile average for the last twelve months of the apparent consumption of beef was 50.8 kg/inhab/year, exceeding the level registered in June 2022 by 4.7% (+2.3 kg/ cigar).
Despite the increase in beef production associated with the increased slaughter forced by the drought last year, the current per capita consumption of beef was still 4% lower than that registered in the first half of 2019.
In Greater Buenos Aires, the general level of consumer prices registered a monthly increase of 5.8%, reaching a cumulative rise in the last year of 117%.
In the particular case of bovine cuts, in the last month the average rise of the five cuts surveyed by the official statistics agency was only 0.9%, leaving the increase in the last twelve months at 72.7% and the gap between the rate of increase in the average price of beef cuts and the general level of the CPI at 20.4%.
Therefore, in the last twelve months the average price of the analyzed beef cuts fell 20.6% in relation to the general CPI.
Meanwhile, regarding the value of whole chicken, beef cuts had a price drop of 10.6%.
These figures are consistent with the recovery shown by the apparent consumption of beef in the last twelve months.
2023-07-15 19:43:00
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