All countries will benefit from artificial intelligence, but some more than others, argues Tyler Cowen, professor of economics at George Mason University.
According to the professor, the most innovative economies will benefit the most from technology, potentially widening the gap between the most and least modern economies.
Cowen divides economic activity into two groups: Known routines and new projects.
In many developing countries, routine work today makes up a large proportion of the economy, where it pays to run call centers or PowerPoint production as a result of low wages.
Routine jobs, Cowen argues, are at the same time work that artificial intelligence will be able to replace most quickly. The economies are thus in danger of being outcompeted by other countries.
Need new ideas
At the opposite end are new projects, argues Cowen.
Artificial intelligence manages per today not producing new, innovative ideas, conceptualizing them, communicating a vision to the necessary people with given talents, raising capital or managing the internal politics of a company.
TRACK THE WINNERS: Tyler Cowen, professor of economics at George Mason University. Foto: George Mason University
AI cannot replace entrepreneurs.
On the other hand, AI will make it significantly easier to carry out new projects, for example by removing the routine work.
The US and China lead
The USA is the de facto leader in the AI race, and has per today many of the most important companies that produce and sell the technology. Cowen believes the role of seller and distributor will strengthen the US’s position as a technology leader.
China has ambitions to become the AI leader in the world with an industry worth 150 billion dollars by 2030. At the same time, Cowen believes there are tensions between the free-flowing, commercial AI and the censorship from the Chinese Communist Party.
The desire for control can potentially inhibit the Chinese’s use of the technology, he argues.
India another leading candidate in the AI race, according to the professor. The country has a large IT sector and a high proportion of competent technologists, but also at the opposite end a large proportion employed in routine industries that AI will be able to replace.
Other possible winners are countries such as Saudi Arabia and Canada, which show a willingness to implement large, ambitious projects, argues Cowen.
Green transition and environmental challenges can become an important driver for new technology and new projects. A common denominator for many countries is that the USA and American AI technology will probably play a decisive role.
2023-08-13 08:07:38
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