The IMF warns that global growth could be less than 3% by 2030 due to low productivity

MADRID, 10 Abr. (EUROPA PRESS) –

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned this Wednesday that global economic growth could slow to 2.8% by 2029, this is one percentage point below the pre-pandemic average between the years 2010-2019, if reforms are not undertaken. or adopt new technologies that improve productivity, as revealed in its Chapter 3 report on the ‘Global Economic Prospects’.

The published document reflects that, although the world economy has demonstrated “remarkable resistance” to recent “disruptions”, estimates for the future have been systematically revised downwards since the 2008-2009 crisis due to the slowdown in advanced countries in the early 2000s and emerging and developing nations after 2008.

In both cases, changes in total factor productivity (TFP) growth have “significantly” shifted global growth downward, explaining more than half of the decline in advanced and emerging economies. and almost all the decrease in low-income countries.

«This slowdown was due, in part, to a growing misallocation of capital and labor between companies in different sectors. The general decline in private capital formation after the crisis and the lower growth of the working-age population in the main economies exacerbated the slowdown,” says the institution.

These dynamics jeopardize not only the possibility of improving the population’s standard of living, but also threaten to reverse it, as well as increase a growth gap between poor and rich countries that limits the income convergence of the former with the latter. .

At the same time, demographics have come to play a role in the slowdown, since labor supply growth will be 0.3% by 2030, less than a third of the pre-pandemic average.

The IMF has recalled that a persistent scenario of low growth, combined with high interest rates, could put debt sustainability at risk, which, in turn, would restrict the ability of governments to counteract economic slowdowns and invest. in social welfare initiatives or in the ‘green transition’.

Consequently, expectations of weak growth could discourage investment in capital and technologies, possibly further fueling the slowdown.

The multilateral organization indicates that there is an “urgent need” to adopt policies and structural reforms that will boost growth by allocating capital and labor towards the most competitive companies, improving labor force participation and taking advantage of of the potential of artificial intelligence (AI).

In the case of inefficient allocation, although this may temporarily worsen during macroeconomic ‘shocks’, two-thirds of it can be attributed to structural factors, so appropriate policies could channel productivity growth.

In this sense, the IMF analysis suggests that the adoption of specific policy measures to improve market competition, trade openness, financial access and labor market flexibility could raise global growth by approximately 1.2 points. percentages between now and 2030.

Next, AI’s potential to boost labor productivity is “highly uncertain” but “potentially substantial.” This could possibly add up to 0.8 percentage points to global growth, depending on its adoption and its impact on the labor market.

The IMF has insisted that the reforms are “critical” given the high levels of public debt and geoeconomic fragmentation that threaten to further condition GDP downwards if it does not act.