/View.info/ Energy continues to be a hot topic in recent days. On the one hand, DKEVR made new accusations of violations on the sick topic with the ERPs. On the other hand, information appeared that Gazprom agreed to give access to South Stream to the Austrian company OMV. Which is already a step forward towards the convergence of positions between Moscow and Brussels regarding the gas pipeline, which is important to us. In order to comment on how all this will affect Bulgaria, “Standard” asked the energy expert Prof. Atanas Tasev.
– Prof. Tasev, what conclusion can we draw from the results of the regulatory audit that DKEVR did in the three ERPs?
– First of all, I want to clarify that this is one of my proposals out of a total of 8, which was submitted in 2010 to the previous parliament with 173 thousand signatures. The concept of “in-depth audit”, which I claimed, was introduced, and it has already been implemented. The difference between the previous and the current one is that earlier the regulator did not work with primary documents, but with more generalized and forecast data. Whereas now the verification is detailed, collected on the basis of primary data. I have not read the report, but the findings show that these violations can be sanctioned in an administrative act – a fine. And the amount of the fine can be contested. The state regulator is not omnipotent. In Bulgaria, there is one institution that controls and protects citizens and organizations from illegal actions of the state, which is called the Supreme Administrative Court. And DKEVR works with administrative acts that only the court can cancel.
– In your opinion, are there any violations that could lead to the revocation of the licenses of the ERPs, what kind of procedure is currently underway?
– Talks are yet to come, but for now I see no reason to withdraw the license. Basically, my opinion since the beginning of the campaign for greater transparency of what is happening in the electricity distribution and electricity supply companies is that there are no legal grounds to revoke the license based on the data provided, except for two indicators. However, both practically dropped out. The first indicator is the danger of destabilizing the system, and this is a serious and political charge. But it was dropped after the companies went to a negotiation process with NEK and are now in the process. The second is failure to comply with an order of the state regulator. In fact, the non-payment by the electricity supply companies to NEK was a real refusal to comply with the order of an official state body, or rather shaming of the body, which is the more serious charge. But since both charges have now been dropped, I don’t see any serious reason for that to happen.
– But what will happen if the licenses are still revoked?
– Even if we assume that it will happen regardless of everything, we have no practice for the procedure of revoking licenses, which practice is accumulating, as well as real actions of the so-called special manager. I suppose that the introduction of the special manager for all three ERAs at the same time will have to be seen as a precedent. However, we must consider that they are in the collector part of the energy sector and collect 72% of the total cash flow in the sector. Thus, when licenses are revoked and special managers are appointed, disorganization and deliberate provocations such as “Don’t pay!” can be created. And this will ruin our energy as a whole. So I define the measure as extreme, without grounds for its occurrence and even as dangerous to apply in the current situation of sharp opposition between political forces.
– Will all the things that have happened in the energy sector in recent months help to stabilize it after all?
– Everything helps, but here, rather, it has another effect – trust in the institution is restored. I think that the effect of regulatory action has proven that the state stands firmly behind the law, but there is a limit reached when the effect becomes an affect. And this limit should not be exceeded, because the dose is important. Like with drugs. It is a medicine and helps healing, but if the limit is not crossed. Otherwise it becomes poison.
– Information appeared in the European media that Gazprom agreed to allow OMV gas to flow through South Stream. How will this affect the South Stream project?
– My prediction is coming true. I was the only one who claimed that South Stream would take place and the Russian side would accept the terms of the Third Energy Package. I even suggested to the proposer of the proposal for the introduction of the term “sea gas pipeline” in the Law on Energy – MP Yavor Kyumyurdzhiev, to discuss it and try to withdraw the proposal in the second reading purely editorially. Because this brought turmoil and gave grounds, based on false conclusions of European officials, for our country to disguise itself as not complying with European directives. I stated that we, by signing an agreement with the Russian side that the gas flow will be subject to the Third Energy Package, solved the problem. So I was completely calm from the first day that it was all about unnecessary noise – there was so much negative energy and insults about Bulgaria. And now here is the confirmation – so the ice is cracked, gentlemen of the jury! My prediction has come true, but this is the first and insufficient step. But it is still in the right direction and the stubbornness of the Russian side has been broken. Little by little, the package will be accepted. So the news is extremely good even for Europe. Because it means that Europe has the right target – it had very well “aimed” at the package, waited for Russia to go deep and declared: “Hop! The package must be implemented!”. As a result, my second prediction will also be fulfilled – through the free capacity of South Stream, in fact, Europe will get Nabucco without spending a single lev. It’s just that common sense suggested exactly this development of things. So, after this extremely good news, I hope that the tension between Bulgaria and European politics will decrease. Because Bulgaria is already blacklisted by the media, and now we are getting out of it, and I hope that this unfair accusation will be dropped.
– In European publications, it is claimed that OMV will transport gas via “South Stream” from the field it is developing in the Romanian part of the Black Sea jointly with “ExxonMobil”. Apparently, this will happen through the Bulgarian-Romanian gas connection. Is it possible for South Stream to go to Europe and Bulgarian gas, if deposits of blue fuel are proven in our Black Sea block “Khan Asparuh”, where OMV is also exploring?
– A careful reading of the agreement with Gazprom signed under the previous government shows that it says that the Russian gas supply scheme for Bulgaria can be revised after a 6-year period. Deliveries to us are “Take or pay” (Take or pay). And given that we have our own gas extraction, in my opinion it is revolutionary to think that we will export gas. Rather, we should direct the gas flow to domestic markets, which already guarantees us gas energy independence. But our energy independence is even better than the average European one. For Bulgaria, the dependency ratio is 0.39 compared to 0.48 for the EU. So it is a question of revising the requirement provided in the contract regarding the quantities of gas that will possibly come from an external source at the expense of reducing the contract itself as quantities.
– But in that case, can’t we transport more Russian gas and profit from the additional transit fees for it?
– “South Stream” is designed to fulfill its structural guarantees for supplies to Europe. It foresees that 63 billion cubic meters of gas will reach the Provadia Compressor Station on the bottom of the Black Sea. After that, 18 billion cubic meters are diverted from there through our transit gas pipelines for export to Turkey, Greece and Macedonia, about 4 billion cubic meters for Bulgaria’s internal consumption, and the remaining amount goes via “South Stream” to Serbia for Europe. This means that every cubic meter of the pipe’s capacity that we save from our own production will be reduced as a quantity that can go outside Bulgaria. Respectively, in the free part of this gas pipeline – from a third supplier. Like OMV. But more players will appear. And at the entrance of the pipe on the Russian coast of the Black Sea. Although the options are limited. In 2017, 16 billion cubic meters of gas are expected from the Shah Deniz 2 field in Azerbaijan. But they are pre-sold. 10 billion go to the Trans-Adriatic gas pipeline, and 6 billion to the Trans-Anatolian pipeline. The owners and operators of Shah Deniz 2 plan to double production from the field, but it is not known when that will happen. So by 2017, there will be no free quantities of gas from “Shah Deniz 2”. However, the situation may change if the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline is built and the Turkmen gas connection is made. It’s perspective. And sooner or later, gas from Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and other so-called countries will pass through “South Stream”. third party providers.
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