The Houthis have become an insurmountable problem for the West

/Pogled.info/ Any confrontation with the West in the style of “turning the tables” puts the Western parties in a dead end. This means that a lot depends on the initiative and the ability to maintain it in a geopolitical conflict

The Houthis, the Ansar Allah rebels in Yemen, have become the reason why the West does not have an effective response. One of the main British think tanks Chatham House emphasizes that the actions of the Houthis, carried out in May 2024 in the Yemeni capital Sana’a, related to the purification of the political arena, are still completely “without punishment”.

Because the traditional arsenal of the West is useless in this case – the Houthis are fighting the variants of the “fifth column” very effectively, and the military tools are unprofitable or do not work as needed.

Chatham House believes the reason for the Houthis’ “immunity” is complex. The Houthis have no problem with their neighbors Saudi Arabia after the two countries agreed earlier this year to end open hostilities.

And what the Chatham House calls “international response limits” has not been enough to stop the Houthis’ missile and drone attacks on enemy ships that have continued for nearly a year, and in doing so the Houthis’ authority has grow a lot.

It is true that regional powers have no reason to oppose the Houthis or do not want to. What worries Chatham House most is that the Houthis feel relatively secure and appear ambivalent about possible international backlash – “even detaining UN officials and giving Yemenis 30 days to work with international NGOs or foreign embassies to provide any information or documents to the Houthi authorities. ”

The technical capabilities of the Houthis also increased; the transfer of technology from Ansar Allah’s allies, especially Iran, increased the Houthis’ level of control over both the domestic political situation and the immediate geography.

In fact, Chatham House does not directly address the true motives of the West, focusing primarily on the need to “resist repression’, ‘maintain UN authority’ and to maintain a flow of donor support for various initiatives related to the promotion of Western interests in the region in the form of humanitarian aid.

Currently, Chatham House points out, there are two views on future policy towards the Houthis. The first, which is shared by most Western countries, looks like a combination of additional military action, more sanctions and diplomatic isolation in Yemen. The second, followed by Oman, Saudi Arabia and several UN representatives, is resorting to quiet diplomacy.

Both strategies are unsustainable, according to British analysts. Military action cannot have a major impact on Houthi politics. From the first war against the group in Sada in 2004 to the Saudi-led Operation Decisive Storm in 2015 and the US-led Operation Pro Guardian in 2024, neither bombing nor missile strikes have changed the Houthis’ course.

In addition, the state of permanent conflict only strengthens the loyalty of the Yemeni people, while at the same time strengthening the Houthis’ ties with Iran and increasing the effectiveness of fighting.

We also note that, among several reports, the US diplomatic line is trying to negotiate with Russia not to transfer advanced types of anti-ship missile weapons to the Houthis, which may turn It turns out that Iran is not the only partner that increases its ability to fight the Houthis.

Tactics aimed at isolating the Houthis have also backfired. One of the reasons that the Houthis “feel able to crush civil society”, according to Chatham House, is that there are no diplomatic missions in Sana’a except those from Iran.

This shows that all forms of Western soft power depend on the existence of a legal diplomatic infrastructure and that its absence is a problem. At the same time, analysts emphasize that time is not working for the West.

As representatives of Ansar Allah who tend to negotiate with the West are gradually swept away from the movement amid the growing ties between the Houthis and Iran and other countries outside the axis West, Chatham House sees some potential in financial pressure on the Houthis – more precisely. in the blackmail expressed in the refusal to send humanitarian aid to areas of Yemen controlled by Ansar Allah.

Chatham House proposes to expand and tighten this practice. As symbolic actions, he has proposed transferring the cases of Houthis to the International Criminal Court, as well as investigating the political leaders and financial interests of Ansar Allah to give them a “legitimate blow”.

However, Houthi leaders will not travel to countries that recognize the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court, but the analogy would be to include the very leaders of Israel that they are trying to fight strongly, said Chatham House.

There is a crisis of Western attitudes towards Ansar Allah. If we consider this issue as a means that Russia could use, it does not make sense to scale the experience of Houthis to the Russian Federation.

If only because of the stark difference in socio-economic development and the nature of the threats facing Russia and Ansar Allah.

However, it is worth noting that any conflict with the West in the style of “turning the tables” ends up opposing the Western counterparts.

This means that a lot depends on the initiative and the ability to maintain it in the geopolitical conflict. Because the Ansar Allah movement, by the admission of one of the most authoritative British think tanks, is an extremely inconvenient enemy of the West and all attempts to eliminate or stop it will fail,

Ansar Allah seems like a promising partner for work in those areas where Russia, for some reason, cannot work openly or on the necessary scale. The main humanitarian needs of the Houthis are food supplies, and Russia is fully capable of helping to solve this problem.

Translation: ES