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The Hidden Dangers of Melting Ice: Rising Sea Levels and Resurfacing Pathogens

The ice sheet in East Antarctica is indeed starting to melt, and as a result it has raised sea levels by as much as 52 meters. However, it turns out that there are other dangers besides rising sea levels.

Recently, scientists discovered a genetic match between viruses that had been sleeping in Arctic lake sediments. In fact, this virus has a potential host that is still alive so that it allows the virus to replicate.

Earth’s climate is warming at a spectacular rate, and up to four times as fast in colder areas like the Arctic. Estimates suggest that 4 sextillion microorganisms are released from melting ice each year. This is about the same as the estimated number of stars in the universe.

However, despite the large number of microorganisms released from melting ice, no one has been able to estimate the risk this poses to modern ecosystems. In a new study in the journal PLOS Computational Biology, simulations show that 1% simulated release of just one dormant pathogen can cause major environmental damage and widespread loss of host organisms worldwide.

Through simulations using Avida software, invading pathogens often survive and evolve in the simulated modern world. About 3% of these pathogens then become dominant in the new environment, in which case they are highly likely to infect modern hosts.

In a worst case but still plausible scenario, an invasion reduces the size of its host community by 30%. The risk from some of these pathogens may seem small, but keep in mind that this is the result of the release of only one specific pathogen in a simulated environment. With many ancient microbes being released in the real world, such outbreaks pose a grave danger.

Matthew Flinders Professor of Global Ecology and Models Theme Leader for the ARC Center of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage, Flinders University and Giovanni Strona, said there was a hidden threat to this case.

“Our findings show that this unexpected threat that has so far been confined to science fiction can be a powerful driver of ecological change,” he said as quoted by Science Alert.

“While we did not model the potential risk to humans, the fact that “time-traveling” pathogens can come alive and severely damage existing communities is worrying,” he said.

Well-known viruses such as SARS-CoV-2, Ebola, and HIV are most likely transmitted to humans through contact with other animal hosts. So it makes sense that viruses present in ice could enter the human population via a zoonotic route.

Although the probability of a pathogen emerging from the melting ice and causing a catastrophic extinction is low, this is no longer a mere fantasy but a watchful eye.

For your information, in 2003, there were bacteria that came back to life from samples taken from the bottom of an ice core drilled into an ice sheet on the Qinghai-Tibet plateau. The ice in those depths is more than 750,000 years old.

In 2014, a giant “zombie” Pithovirus sibericum virus was revived from 30,000 year old Siberian permafrost. And in 2016, an outbreak of anthrax (a disease caused by the bacterium Bacillus anthracis) in western Siberia was linked to the rapid melting of B spores. The virus killed thousands of deer and affected dozens of people.

source: okezone.com

2023-07-29 10:25:14
#Scientists #Worried #Dangerous #Virus #Breaking #Melting #Ice #Antarctica

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