The heat pump is advancing at lightning speed, and there is a threat of a shortage of installers

• Marijn Duintjer Tebbens

  news reporter

• Yfke Nijland

  news editor

This summer the waiting times for the popular heat pump should be over. It will take some time to get rid of the accumulated waiting lists. That may take until the end of this year.

“We expect supply and demand to be in balance by mid-2023 and we will have a normal delivery time,” says Frank Agterberg of the Association of Heat Pumps. Delivery problems due to the corona lockdown in China and a worldwide shortage of components such as printed circuit boards and microchips mean that manufacturers are unable to meet demand.

As a result of the high gas price, the heat pump is on the rise: installers installed 100,000 heat pumps last year, 37 percent more than in 2021. The government wants this number to rise to 200,000 heat pumps in new and existing homes in 2026.

From 2026, the hybrid heat pump will become the standard for heating homes. In 2030, 1 million heat pumps must be installed in existing homes. The industry believes that in three years’ time it will be possible to supply 300,000 heat pumps annually. “For this, production, import and installation capacity must be increased,” says Agterberg.

A tour of the major makers of heat pumps shows that they are working hard on this. Supplier Itho Daalderop in Tiel expanded the factory with a few halls last year. There is now room for assembling 100,000 heat pumps per year. Producer Remeha in Apeldoorn hopes to be able to supply 140,000 heat pumps annually after expansion from 2024. A spokesman for the company expects the shortages to be eliminated in the second half of this year.

But then another problem threatens: a shortage of installers. Entrepreneurial organization Techniek Nederland “does everything possible to train enough heat pump mechanics”. For example, there will be a training location in every region. Techniek Nederland also wants to halve the installation time of a heat pump, from an average of 32 hours to 16 hours.

Last year, the cabinet concluded the ‘action plan for hybrid heat pumps’ with the sector. It states that production costs must be 40 percent lower in 2030 than in 2021. There are now serious doubts whether that is feasible. Agterberg: “If the demand is greater than the supply, the price rises. And then there is the inflation.” However, installing the heat pump faster can save costs in the long run, thinks Agterberg.

But Taco van Hoek of the Economic Institute for Construction (EIB) says he does not see any reason for a spectacular cost reduction. “Labor costs will rise, especially because the pump will become an obligation from 2026. For the devices, this is an international market. The idea that these devices will become tens of percent cheaper is not realistic in our opinion.”

The Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate Policy acknowledges that higher prices for energy and raw materials and the tightness on the labor market, together with the limited production capacity, lead to higher prices. “For the time being, we assume that this will change in the long term.”

The costs for a hybrid heat pump are between 5000 and 7000 euros. Those who purchase a heat pump can apply for a subsidy of up to 30 percent. Pleasant for the homeowner, but a cost item for the cabinet. Especially if the hybrid heat pump becomes mandatory as a replacement for the central heating boiler from 2026 and possibly 300,000 homeowners choose that option every year.

Last year, the EIB calculated a ‘subsidy gap’ of €2 billion if the government maintains the subsidies. It is therefore expected that from 2026, 300,000 heat pumps will be purchased annually. “What the possible lack of a price decrease means for the subsidy pot remains to be seen,” says a spokesman for the ministry. Also, not everyone who purchases a heat pump will apply for and receive a subsidy, the ministry expects.

But even if the costs would be higher rather than lower, a spokesperson for the Milieu Centraal knowledge center emphasizes that a switch to a heat pump is still worthwhile due to the increased gas costs.