US presidential candidates Kamala Harris, a Democrat, and Donald Trump, a Republican, will face each other for the first time on Tuesday during the ABC News presidential debate in Philadelphia. Both have “a lot to gain or lose,” experts said.
Trump will have participated in seven presidential debates, the most in US history, while Harris will face this type of forum for the first time.
“While candidates need to prepare for policy issues like the economy, foreign affairs, immigration, gun control, abortion, they also need to think strategically about building their image,” said Tammy Vigil, a communications professor at Boston University.
Vigil stressed that the former Republican president is “particularly skilled at attacking his opponents, whether using real or fabricated information to do so” so “Harris needs to find a way to correct misinformation without sounding like a critical teacher. She needs to show a personality that viewers can identify with,” she added.
Donna Hoffman, a political scientist at the University of Northern Iowa, said each candidate will seek to establish contrasts with his opponent. Trump, for his part, tends to be “light” on details of policy proposals, while Harris will “introduce herself” in some aspects to voters who are just tuning into the presidential election.
“The Trump campaign wants to go back to the past (make America great again), while the Harris campaign has emphasized looking forward (we’re not going back). I hope they will highlight policies that fit into that framework,” Hoffman added.
The last time Trump faced a female candidate was Hillary Clinton in 2016, one of whom is remembered for getting physically close to her, making faces behind her back, and referring to Clinton as “the devil” and a “nasty woman.”
“I think a lot of people are wondering if we’ll see a return to some of the gender debate dynamics of 2016… This included a lot of interruptions, over-talking and physical posturing,” said Erin Cassese, a political science professor at the University of Delaware.
Immigration, economy and abortion in the spotlight
Immigration, the state of the economy and access to abortion will be three of the main topics in the meeting between the candidates, according to experts. “Both candidates have held executive positions, so both will face questions about various aspects of their records,” Cassese explained.
Harris is expected to again blame Trump for the failure of a bipartisan bill that Trump asked his base to block in Congress as a “bad bill,” even though it was the first time the two parties had committed to making immigration reforms.
“I think he’s going to focus on (immigration). I don’t know if he’s going to focus on it with a clear policy, rather than broad rhetoric, like deport everybody, the kind of rhetoric he’s been using. But he’s certainly going to attack the Biden-Harris administration for what they’ve done or not done at the border,” said David Redlawsk, a political psychologist at the University of Delaware.
Although Customs and Border Protection (CBP) data show that illegal border crossings have declined dramatically in recent months, Republicans are continuing their message of an “open border” under the Biden administration.
“It’s a tough spot for Democrats in general…I think Harris is just going to have to somehow defend this perception that the borders are overrun, even though that perception, on an objective basis, is really not true right now,” Redlawsk added.
The vice president could also attack Trump for his appointment of three Supreme Court justices who helped overturn Roe v. Wade and end the constitutional right to abortion, mention “Project 2025,” a conservative policy framework written by some of his closest advisers, and contrast her record as a prosecutor with the legal cases against Trump.
Trump, for his part, has accused Harris of being a radical leftist, while suggesting she is responsible for Biden’s more centrist policy agenda. He has at times questioned her intelligence and racial identity.
According to communications professor Tammy Vigil, the current vice president has “demonstrated her ability to get under Trump’s skin in a way that takes him off his usual game. It will be interesting to see if she can pull this off within the confines of the debate and whether Trump responds effectively.”
What are the rules of the debate?
In many ways, this debate will be the same as the previous one between Joe Biden and Trump. For 90 minutes, Harris and Trump will debate in a television studio, with no opening statements and with the microphones turned off whenever it is the other candidate’s turn to speak.
The debate is set to begin at 9 p.m. Eastern Standard Time at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia, a museum dedicated to the U.S. Constitution.
A virtual coin flip determined the candidates’ podium placement and the order of closing statements: Former President Trump won the coin toss and chose to offer the last closing statement of the debate. Vice President Harris selected to be seated at the podium on the right side of the screen.
Harris and Trump will each have two minutes to answer questions, and another two minutes to respond to statements from the other candidate, with an additional minute for follow-ups or clarifications.
“It’s different and the same at the same time. It’s different in the sense that it’s a different dynamic between the candidates, but it’s the same in the sense that they both still have the same goal, which is to appear strong, effective and to capture people’s attention,” said political psychologist Redlawsk.
The same rules have been the subject of debate by the campaigns. On the one hand, Harris wanted the microphones to be on throughout the debate, while Trump insisted that they be muted.
“Vice President Harris’ team prefers an unmuted microphone, as they anticipate it will make the former president appear less restrained and more combative. It will likely give the public a more accurate sense of what is happening on the debate stage,” Professor Cassese added.
These types of meetings are key to the campaign landscape. Less than two months before the presidential elections, the debate – according to experts – will be a decisive moment to try to win over undecided voters in key states.
“With early voting, you shorten the time between this debate and the likelihood that the electorate will vote. That increases the power of this debate to potentially shape those votes among voters who are undecided,” said Kathleen Hall Jamieson, director of the Public Policy Center at the University of Pennsylvania.
It was precisely the first debate between Biden and Trump that set in motion the current president’s eventual withdrawal from his quest for re-election, leaving Harris at the head of the Democratic ticket.
Harris will come into the debate with momentum. After closing out the Democratic National Convention in Chicago on August 22, her campaign announced it had raised more than $500 million since entering the race. Trump, meanwhile, will arrive on the back of a court victory, after a New York judge delayed until after the election a sentencing on charges related to paying hush money to a porn star.
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