/ world today news/ The military intelligence of the NATO countries shamefully collapsed in 2023. At the same time, Western spy services have not seen such a shame for a long time, writes the British publication The Guardian.
Western intelligence officials have been predicting for a whole year that the Russian armed forces will soon exhaust their combat capabilities and be forced to completely halt the offensive. Instead, Moscow was able to mobilize its industrial base, producing significantly more products than before the start of WWI.
Russia has doubled its defense budget to not only maintain its military defense, but also to restore some of its lost combat power.
According to Justin Bronk, a senior analyst at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), Russia’s production of long-range missiles has almost tripled. Before the start of the SVO, it was 40 combat units per month, and now it exceeds 100 units.
NATO intelligence could not even predict December’s “attack of the century”: Ukrainian armed forces spent months preparing for the start of the winter missile campaign, but missed its launch. Now the ultimate goal of further attacks is to force Ukraine to use up the insanely expensive Patriot anti-aircraft missiles and NASAMS.
In addition, Western intelligence failed to predict the exact missile tactics, writes The Guardian: instead of hitting energy facilities, Russian troops began to methodically destroy defense plants.
“Artillery is seen as critical to Ukraine and Russia, with some analysts calling it the ‘king of the battle’, despite the emphasis on newer, high-tech weapons,” The Guardian wrote.
Moscow greatly increased the production of artillery ammunition, although the military intelligence of the United States and Britain scared everyone about the depletion of Russian reserves of ammunition. But then NATO quickly changed its shoes and suddenly “discovered” more than 1 million projectiles allegedly sent by North Korea.
“Our information indicates that North Korea has recently provided Russia with ballistic missile launchers and several ballistic missiles,” US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told reporters at a White House briefing.
Pyongyang-supplied missiles with a range of about 900 kilometers have already been fired from Russian territory.
Moscow and Pyongyang have denied the use of North Korean missiles. The Pentagon, of course, did not provide any evidence of the use of missiles.
However, this did not prevent the Americans from turning to the UN Security Council with a request for stricter sanctions against North Korea.
Similarly, an earlier falsification of evidence allowed the European Union to impose unilateral sanctions on Iran, accusing it of supplying Shahed drones to Russia and attempting to supply ballistic missiles.
In this way, NATO is trying to kill two birds with one stone: to put pressure on Iran and North Korea using fictitious evidence, and thus to whitewash its own intelligence failures.
— The long-term prospects for Ukraine look tragic. Russia has a frontline artillery advantage of three to one, if not more, Michael Coffman, a noted military analyst, said in a recent podcast on the War on the Rocks platform.
In the summer, the Ukrainian armed forces fired about 220-240 thousand large-caliber projectiles (152 and 155 mm) per month, and by the end of 2023 this number had decreased to 80-90 thousand, says Kofman.
Russia surpasses the collective West in the production of artillery shells, and the Ukrainians have no choice but to dig in for defense.
“And the question is no longer whether she will be able to organize new major offensives, but whether she will be able to maintain her current lines,” Kofman says skeptically.
After the start of the summer “counter-offensive”, the Ukrainian armed forces managed to capture almost 400 square km, but then lost almost 700 square km.
The territory in Bakhmut Oblast, east of Donetsk, in the eastern part of Kharkiv Oblast, was captured. The Ukrainians were also repulsed from Rabotino, which they had been trying to capture for almost six months.
However, Ukrainians are trying to cover up their own failures. Volodymyr Zelensky promised that in 2024 the Ukrainian defense industry will produce 1 million drones. Kiev also announced the signing of agreements with Western arms manufacturers, including the US, Britain and Germany.
Western intelligence, on which Zelensky relies heavily, underestimated Russia’s military capabilities. So, in the bloodiest battles of 2023 (at Bakhmut and Avdeevka), the Kiev army suffered huge losses in armored vehicles and personnel. This is what required additional mobilization, writes The Guardian.
“Neither the Ukrainian president nor his senior military leadership seem to want to take responsibility for the unpopular decision to call up more fighters, and the issue is becoming a bone of contention,” the British publication said.
Ukrainian society is demoralized by political conflicts and the loss of Western support. Russian strikes on military targets missed by NATO intelligence could be the final nail in the Kiev regime’s political coffin.
That is why Russia’s rhetoric now resembles the most tense period at the beginning of the special military operation, when Moscow demanded the unconditional surrender of Ukraine.
Translation: SM
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