Summary
[The growth rate of the ChiNext Index leads the structural market driven by the institutionalization of A-shares globally]The ChiNext Index takes the lead and characterizes the structural changes of A-shares: In 2020, the market value of Kweichow Moutai will surpass ICBC, and the market value of CATL will surpass PetroChina and Midea Group. The market value is equal to the sum of the market value of Wanbao Zhaojin. Among the top 30 companies in the A stock market, small and medium-sized startups have soared from one in 2019 to eight. In recent years, the structural differentiation of A-shares shows that professional investment institutions have greatly increased their voice in the market. Experience in mature overseas markets has shown that as more and more individual investors switch from direct investment to indirect investment, the institutionalization-driven structuring has become a key indicator of the maturity of the capital market. This has been in the A-share market in the past year. Shown incisively and vividly. (Shanghai Securities News)
On the last trading day of 2020, the three major A-share indexes all hit new highs during the year, marking a perfect end to the entire year’s market. Throughout 2020,Growth Enterprise Market IndexUp 64.96%, the increase in the worldMajor market indexZhongxiong topped the list.The Shanghai Composite Index、Shenzhen Component IndexDuring the year, they rose by 13.87% and 38.73% respectively.
Start a businessThe board index takes the lead by a large margin, which characterizes the structural changes of A-shares: in 2020,Kweichow MoutaiMarket valueBeyondICBC、Ningde eraMarket value beyondChina Petroleum、Midea GroupThe market value is equal to the sum of the market value of Wanbao Zhaojin, and the A stock market value ranks the top 30the companyLizhongxiaochuangenterpriseFrom 1 in 2019 to 8 companies…The mainstream A-share funds are accelerating the accumulation of core assets with high certainty of growth and representing the direction of economic development. At the same time, the average growth rate of poorly performing varieties in the past year was -0.14%, which is no longer in the bull market.
In recent years, the structural differentiation of A shares shows that professional investment institutions havemarketThe right to speak in China has been greatly enhanced. Experience in mature overseas markets has shown that as more and more individual investors switch from direct investment to indirect investment, the institutionalization-driven structuring has become a key indicator of the maturity of the capital market. This has been in the A-share market in the past year. Shown incisively and vividly.
Mainstream funds continue to gather to head companies
Since the large-scale foreign investment in A shares in 2017, core assets have become a hot word in the market.In the past year, with foreign and localInstitutional positionsWith further expansion in scale, the logic of core assets has been continuously strengthened.
In 2020, the scope of mainstream institutional investors’ stock selection is very concentrated, mainly focusing on leading companies in various industry sectors with high growth certainty and representing the direction of economic development. Due to the relative scarcity of high-quality core assets, funds are in a “group” trend, which becomes more prominent at the end of the year.
This structured market is mainly reflected in two aspects: First, the market value of leading companies continues to expand, and the expansion speed is higher than the market average; second, the concentration of transactions continues to increase, and mainstream funds are gathering in leading companies.
From the perspective of market value, as of the end of 2020, the market value of the top 10% companies in all A shares accounted for as high as 66.62% (excluding delisted companies, the same below), an increase of 1.21 percentage points from the end of 2019. Since 2016, the market value of 10% of top companies has increased year by year, and has increased by more than 14% in the past five years.
From the perspective of transaction volume, for the whole year of 2020, the top 10% of the company’s transaction volume accounted for 47.28% of all A shares, an increase of 2.76 percentage points from 2019, and a cumulative increase of nearly 16 since 2016 percentage point.
According to statistics disclosed by the Shanghai Stock Exchange, by the end of November 2020, there were 171 large and super-large listed companies with a total market capitalization of more than 50 billion yuan on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, accounting for 9.65% of the total number of companies on the Shanghai Stock Exchange. There are only 55 very large market capitalization companies, accounting for only 5.9% of the total number of companies. The proportion of large market capitalization companies has increased significantly in recent years, and the gap with mature overseas markets such as US stocks is narrowing.
In terms of investor structure, the current share of the stock market value of domestic and foreign professional institutional investors on the Shanghai Stock Exchange accounts for nearly 20%, which is significantly higher than that of less than 15% in 2016; the share of individual investors’ stock market value has increased from 24% in 2016. % Dropped to 20% now.
High ROE companies have an average increase of more than 40%, and the premium is obvious
The “short and long bulls” of the A-share market have been criticized for a long time, especially in the two rounds of bull markets in 2007 and 2015, when residents’ funds chased up and rushed into most of themBranch officeThe stock price deviates far from its fundamentals, and the return of the final valuation makes the market inevitably fluctuating.
Since the stock index bottomed out in early 2019, A shares have been bullish for two years. During this period, the overall pattern of the market is fundamentally different from the previous two rounds of “mad bull” market. Mainstream funds have substantially increased the weight of the company’s fundamental factors. No matter how small the speculation is, the trend of speculation is difficult to blow, and the situation of individual stocks rising and falling has no longer appeared.
Zhongtai SecuritiesChief Economist LeeThunderSaid that for a long time, A shares have given a higher valuation premium for “uncertainty” and a lower valuation premium for “certainty”, which is the opposite of the valuation system structure of mature markets.But since 2017, the futurePerformanceThe valuation level of relatively “definite” large market capitalization companies has increased significantly, while the valuation level of companies with many “uncertainties” has moved downward, and the A-share valuation system is becoming more reasonable.
The reporter noticed that ROE(Net assetsReturn rate) indicators have become the focus of consideration when mainstream funds choose stocks in recent years. Companies with high ROE achieve significant excess returns and valuation premiums. Statistics show that the top 10% of the company’s turnover in 2020 will have ROE in the first three quarters of 2020.MedianIt was 8.33%, which was higher than the overall average level of 5.27% of A-shares, indicating that the direction of capital grouping is high ROE varieties.
If all A shares are sorted by ROE in the first three quarters of 2020, and divided into three equal parts from high to low, this fundamental factor has a stronger explanatory power for the excess return of stock prices.
Among them, the high ROE group’s annual average price increase in 2020 is as high as 43.79%, which significantly outperforms the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shenzhen Component Index; the middle ROE group has an average annual increase of 14.96%, which is basically the same as the Shanghai Composite Index; the low ROE group has an annual average The increase was -0.14%, which is completely out of the question in this bull market.
A-share institutionalization trend is expected to continue to strengthen
How ordinary investors should adapt to the new institutionalized market ecology has become an unavoidable topic. Looking forward to 2021, research institutions generally stated that the trend of market institutionalization will continue to intensify, and the high probability of structural differentiation remains the main theme of the market.
Such asCITIC SecuritiesThe latest estimate is that by the end of 2025,Public offeringfundThe stock market value of foreign investors will increase from the current 4.1 trillion yuan to 9.1 trillion yuan, accounting for 8.7%; at the same time, the foreign equity holdings may increase from the current 2.8 trillion yuan to 8.3 trillion yuan, accounting for Increase to 8%.
LeeThunderIt is also emphasized that the pattern of market structure differentiation in 2021 will continue, because this is “StockThe megatrend led by the economy. And fromRaised fundsLooking at the median yield of more than 30% for two consecutive years, “the balance of the times is tilting toward institutional investors.”
LeeThunderSaid that since 2017, the pattern of stock economy dominance has become more and more obvious. Building materials, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery,food and drinkThe competitive landscape of industries such as, home appliances and other industries has been continuously optimized, and the excess profits of leading companies have been obvious. Institutional investment philosophy is also in line with the trend of economic structural changes, and institutions have more extensive social resources than individual investors, making them better at discovering potential leading companies in the industry.
Zhang Qiyao, Chief Strategy Officer of Guosheng Securities, believes that 2020 is destined toInvest inIn this year of market history, “the era of public offerings” and “the institutionalization of A shares” have become two annual keywords. Looking to the future, as the A-share market matures, the pattern of institutionalization, structure, and differentiation will continue to emerge.In residentsSavingsUnder the background of transforming into long-term capital in the capital market, the institutionalization of A shares is expected to be further accelerated. Institutionalization promotes value, and the concept of A-share value investment has become the unshakable mainstream of the market.And institutions rely onborrowIn-depth research on industries and individual stocks is expected to achieve long-term excess returns.
(Source: Shanghai Securities News)
(Editor in charge: DF524)
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