– The goal is to stop Russia from attacking other countries – VG

Less than 20 minutes ago

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Russia has in recent days made attempts to destroy the railway that carries the weapons and military equipment east, but Pentagon spokesman John Kirby says they can still send the material into the area.

Georgia, Moldova and the Baltic countries are among those who have felt threatened by Russia after the invasion of Ukraine.

– The United States has said it will weaken Russia militarily by supporting Ukraine. The goal is to stop Russia from attacking other countries later. The means to do so is to weaken them militarily now, says military expert Ilmari Käihkö at the Swedish Defense College to VG.

– Every tank that is destroyed in Ukraine is one tank smaller to threaten the rest of Europe. The Russian defense has heavy losses in Ukraine. They will spend a few years recovering, says Käihkö.

Was afraid the weapons would end up with the Russians

Peter Viggo Jakobsen knows Danish The Defense Academy have the same understanding of what is happening now:

– At the beginning of the war, there was a long discussion about whether to give Ukraine heavy weapons. Now it looks like all kinds of heavy weapons are on their way there, so Ukraine can use it in the Donbas.

– But not fighter jets?

– No! So far, they have opposed it. Otherwise, Ukraine will get almost all the types of weapons they have requested, including things that they can not immediately use – but which they must train on and then use in war.

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– Does that mean they expect a long war?

– In the beginning, the West thought that the Russians would win relatively quickly. This was one of the reasons why Ukraine did not receive weapons other than those that could be operated by soldiers without prior training. Moreover: They had bad experience from Iraq and Syria, but also Afghanistan – where the enemy captured huge amounts of American-made weapons.

He points out that the Americans were afraid that what they sent would become Russian equipment within weeks.

“Now the Americans believe that Ukraine can win the war – although it is unclear what they mean by that – and that they will provide Ukraine with advanced conventional weapons and train them in them – so that they will be able to stop the Russian aggression,” he said. Peter Viggo Jakobsen.

– Moral duty

Ilmari Käihkö ved den svenske Försvarshögskolan snakker om en «rød linje»:

– At the beginning of the war, the West did not know if Ukraine would be able to resist – or if they would give up within 72 hours. Then Ukraine showed that they could defend themselves. There was a lot of talk about giving Ukraine defensive weapons with limited range and that were easy to carry there. But the red line for what the West is willing to give Ukraine has shifted gradually.

– Tanks were not accepted to give them – before the revelation of the Butsja massacre. Then we understood that it was Russian warfare against civilians and war crimes – and that changed the situation, says Käihkö.

– It also became a moral duty to enable Ukraine to defend itself. After Butsja, we know what the Russian occupation looks like, and we feel that we must help Ukraine.

The military expert also does not rule out that Ukraine will receive military equipment that is not reported.

– And then of course intelligence and education are important. In any case, the weapons that Ukraine now receives make a difference.

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– Is the Russian defense “revealed”?

– Yes, but what is good for Russia is that they now understand how bad things are with their military. They understand that something must be done. It was a bit like in 1939 when the winter war against Finland did not go well for the Soviets, but they realized that it did not work and had fixed a lot when Hitler-Germany attacked a few years later, says Ilmari Käihkö.

– What do you think about the Russian reaction to arms deliveries to Ukraine?

– Of course they are against it, but what can they do?

On Wednesday night, Russia attacked a number of railway junctions. That is understandable, says the military expert.

– Tanks can almost only be transported by rail – that is why the attacks on the railway come. But both sides are preparing for a longer war. The coming weeks will be very important, although I do not think the war will end there. It can take both months and years, says Ilmari Käihkö at the Swedish National Defense College.

If Russia were to choose to annex the “people’s republics” Donetsk and Luhansk, possibly also Kherson, it would mean that they would defend “their own territory”. It will be easier rhetorically, but I do not think it is likely that the Russians will do it.

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