For the first time in the history of the Federal Republic, ie since 1949, the Chancellor, or more precisely the Chancellor, does not defend the chair. Angela Merkel, 67, who developed from the underestimated, even despised Ossi (Eastern Girl) to the most influential politician on the planet, said in advance that she would say goodbye after 16 years.
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Although she spent many weeks, even months, ostentatiously out of the vortex of the campaign, her opponents still clashed over who would follow in her footsteps. And that’s the leaders of both sides of its grand coalition – logically Armin Laschet (60) for the CDU’s double block of Christian democracy with the Bavarian partner CSU and, quite surprisingly, Olaf Scholz (64), who was sent to the race by the Social Democrats (SPD).
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Two thirds of Germans feel personally well, many speak of its era as a golden age and consider stability above almost everything. “This typically German mix of reliability and boredom has become a pillar for many successes, politically and economically,” noted the weekly Der Stern.
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In April, Laschet defeated the more popular and more agile Markus Söder (54), the Bavarian prime minister and CSU leader, in a sharpened duel over who will lead the joint candidate. “It only happened because the CDU’s nobles feared that a concession to the Bavarians would condemn their party to a generation for a generation,” said The Economist.
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Two and one scepter
Laschet hoped that a mere aspiration for the moderate course of Chancellor Merkel’s two grand coalitions would enable him to achieve victory. Sometimes he acted as if the chancellor’s office was a scepter handed to him by Merkel rather than a position to be fought for. It seemed risky to play it safe even before his footage revealed him in July on his way through the flood-affected regions of his federal state of North Rhine-Westphalia, with footage of him laughing at a ceremony to honor the victims. Many voters saw this as a confirmation of fundamental unseriousness. From that moment on, an unprecedented downfall began – his personal and CDU / CSU.
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And so Scholz, who represented a more credible mark of continuity, unexpectedly rose from the dead.
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His entitlement to a post after Merkel lies in his experience, which includes serving as Federal Minister of Labor and Finance and the seven-year leadership of Hamburg; in his usually factual competence and in his actions, so carefree that the mini-scandals surrounding financial supervision in his ministry will not affect him.
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“Merkel’s voter from 2017 does not have to go a long way to becoming a supporter of Scholz in 2021,” says sociologist Iris Morgen (33). Why? The weekly Der Spiegel has an explanation: “In this time of crisis, Scholz acts like a medical goat brought to irritation. His persuasiveness lies in his personal credibility and abstract promise that the world will remain as it is. It symbolizes the gesture of Merkel – the diamond – that he adopted. “
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Like Game of Thrones
In the German proportional electoral system, however, the election contest is only half the story. The coalition struggles that follow election day will be at least as important and twice as complex as the vote itself.
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Two coalitions are most often mentioned: traffic lights according to the colors of the parties (red SPD, yellow liberal FDP and green) or “Jamaica” with the colors of the flag of this Caribbean state – black for CDU / CSU, yellow and green. The left wing of the SPD will do what it can for the so – called 2RG, ie rot – rot – grün, ie the SPD, the Greens and the Left, and Scholz, on the other hand, to prevent this from happening.
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Some political scientists expect that forming a government could take six months. “It’s like ‘Game of Thrones,'” says Constantin Wurthmann of the University of Düsseldorf, alluding to the TV series. “Nobody knows anything.”
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Helmut Markwort (84), the founder and long-time editor-in-chief of the weekly Focus, went even further: “We will definitely not have a government until Christmas. Perhaps until Ash Wednesday, that is, March 2, 2022. “
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