Despite the impressive momentum that the Alternative for Germany (AfD) has developed in the run-up to the European elections in June, and although it is predicted to be the first party in the elections of the states of Thuringia, Brandenburg and Saxony, next September, “I see as very unlikely a major electoral success for the AfD at the federal level in the coming years, as there is a strong democratic center in Germany,” the Political Adviser on Extremism (specializing in right-wing extremism) and Counter-Terrorism in BIMA reassures BIMA. Department of International Policy and Security of the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung, Felix Neumann.
This is underlined “by the current demonstrations across the country”, adds the German expert. Germany will not slide back into situations similar to the 1930s, as we have a highly functional constitutional state. Democracy in Germany is strong enough and has sufficient means to defend itself.”
Nevertheless, the governing coalition “is divided on many political issues”, admits F. Neumann, with an impact “on the effectiveness” of its actions (p.s.: the interview took place before the scandal of the interception of conversations between its leader was revealed of the Air Force, Lieutenant General Ingo Gerhardt and high-ranking officers of the German Armed Forces from Moscow). After all, “the AfD is fueled by a lack of trust in politics,” he adds.
Bans on political parties. An extremely topical issue recently in both Greece and Germany. Despite the European legislative panspermia, there is a “clear common European approach”, underlines the Venice Commission, and this is “a common democratic heritage that political parties are not banned, nor dissolved”. However, the recent move by the Association of Lawyers and the Association of German Judges to the government, through which they highlighted the “attack on the liberal constitutional state” by the Alternative for Germany Thuringia, after its conspiratorial meeting with members of the extra-parliamentary far-right, is striking. , based on an extreme racist agenda to persecute immigrants, etc. This particular passage raises questions about whether the German constitution is able to protect democracy, especially when, in contrast to the Greek tolerant model, it has a repressive function (fighting model)?
The Basic Law forms the basis for various options to protect democracy in Germany – this principle is called defensive democracy (Wehrhafte Demokratie). The Federal Republic of Germany is therefore in a position to take action against extremist party and non-party structures. The Federal Constitutional Court has the opportunity to ensure that the basic principles of a free democracy are respected. For example, there were two successful similar party bans in Germany: the Socialist Reich Party (SRP) in 1952, and the Stalinist Communist Party of Germany (KPD) in 1956.
Isn’t the case of the AfD a danger? What’s the point of the joint march against her to the government?
The AfD should be seen as a serious threat to German democracy. And this can be demonstrated from various aspects. First of all, the atmosphere in parliaments has changed – all the democratic parties are pointing this out. The choice of vocabulary has also changed, not only in politics, but also in general. As far as constitutional institutions are concerned, there could also be major challenges if its officials take central positions, rejecting the free democratic basic order.
These are just some of the most important aspects to mention regarding the AfD. However, Germany will not slide back into 1930s-like situations, as we have a highly functional constitutional state, a broad democratic public and many politicians who care about the survival of our democracy. Of course, this does not diminish the threats and challenges posed by the AfD, but I believe that German democracy is strong enough and has sufficient means to defend itself.
Doesn’t Article 18 of the German Constitution therefore need changes or additions against its neo-Nazi threat? Are the institutional safeguards already in place? So why are lawyers asking the government to take action?
There is currently a debate in Germany about applying the option of Article 18 of the Basic Law to AfD Thuringia leader Björn Hecke.
The party’s branch is already monitored by the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution as “clearly right-wing extremist”. Is this ban possible with the application of Article 18?
From a legal point of view, it would probably be possible and a petition for this procedure has gathered many signatures from citizens. However, it is unclear whether this plan could realistically be implemented.
For what reason;
There has never been a similar case in the past. In addition, there are the issues of the length of the process, the uncertainty of the outcome and the possibility of victimization of Heke. In my opinion, such a step should only be taken after careful consideration – mainly because there are other possibilities for defensive democracy (Wehrhafte Demokratie).
Could the government limit AfD’s influence if it had better performance and consensus? And this, not exclusively through the constitutional way?
It is no secret that the current government is divided on many political issues. It is also solely a logical conclusion that this division has an impact on the effectiveness of her actions. For this reason, I would argue that a government that works better, is more efficient, and communicates more professionally could enhance trust in politics, political institutions, and political processes more generally. It would also mean that fewer people would be driven into the arms of the AfD, which is fueled by a lack of trust in politics. Therefore, I would say that good governance would primarily ensure that fewer people would join the AfD. At the same time, there could be the “side effect” of the AfD losing its overall support.
In addition, the current government makes decisions that face great disapproval among the population. Farmers’ protests, in the wake of government decisions, are just one example.
Next September, state elections will be held in Thuringia, Brandenburg and Saxony. In all three states, Alternative for Germany appears as the first party. What might this mean for politics in the country at large? What might be the next step for the AfD?
Current forecasts do see the AfD very strong in the three federal states. However, there is still plenty of time for the democratic parties to prepare for the election campaign and win over voters.
In the event that the AfD succeeds in the elections, none of the parties expected to be elected in the regional parliaments would currently be able to form a coalition with it.
What does this practically mean?
That the AfD could govern as a minority or that a grand coalition would be formed between several democratic parties, which would have to cooperate with each other. Both scenarios are highly hypothetical and leave room for speculation at this stage. However, I do not foresee a major electoral success for the AfD at the federal level as very unlikely in the coming years, as there is a strong democratic center in Germany. This is further underlined by the current demonstrations across Germany.
What does your research answer to the question of why the AfD and far-right forces in general have developed such impressive momentum across Europe, even though you already implied as a reason the disagreements and the dysrhythmia of the governing coalition?
There are various explanations for the success of right-wing extremist parties in Europe – no two countries are the same in this regard. There is no single reason for the rise of far-right parties. The loss of trust in democratic institutions and democracy in general certainly plays a decisive role. Inadequate policy, which is often not very well communicated, is another reason. The influence of social and alternative media should not be underestimated either, as fake news can spread very quickly through platforms such as X, Facebook or Telegram. On alternative platforms, such as Telegram, fake news that is circulated is rarely or never deleted, while it has a large number of recipients. In Germany, we find that no democratic party publicizes as effective online campaigns as the AfD. Once again, these are simple answers to complex questions that specifically point to “the elites” blaming them for the current situation.
While in addition, multiple crises in the respective countries, in Europe and worldwide – such as the financial and economic crises, the coronavirus pandemic and Russia’s war of aggression – must be factored into the causes, which cause uncertainty. Right-wing extremist forces exploit this uncertainty and then offer simple answers to extremely complex issues – usually “garnished” with a clear picture of the enemy.
And in European elections, far-right parties often have the advantage of being the only ones clearly opposed to the European Union. In Germany, for example, the AfD’s attitude towards the European Union is unique compared to the other parties, which could also have a positive effect on its electoral result. This overall should not be underestimated as a possible reason for the electoral success of far-right parties.
What should be the role of the European Parliament? It is limited to debate and passing resolutions (to fuel racism and intolerance). In particular, regarding the management of neo-fascist-neo-Nazi parties-groups, two debates have been held in the recent past. One for the arrests of 25 far-right members of the organization “Citizens of the Reich” (Reichsbürger), who were planning a coup in Germany. The other on the march of the fascists in Rome (28.10.22) – but without the issuance of a resolution in both cases. And the 2018 resolution for a blanket ban on all neo-Nazi groups was not binding on member states. Should, can the EU do something more drastic?
By adopting good policies, the European Union could strengthen the acceptance of political institutions and democracy in general. Political decisions that affect all EU citizens should be better communicated. What is achieved thanks to the work of MEPs, such as the easy exchange of goods, smooth mobile roaming and soon uniform charging cables, is often not known. Particularly with more work in rural areas – where far-right parties are often strongest – the European Union could improve its position and thus strengthen democratic forces.
In addition, it should be noted that the European Union can provide financial support for civil society projects, both in rural and urban areas. Often these are the smallest projects and organizations working against right-wing extremism and strengthening democracy are usually underfunded.
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