The famous American internationalist George Friedman issued a statement on the war between Ukraine and Russia. It is interesting because of how idealistic some American intellectuals are about this war. Khvilya publishes a translation of his statement.
“First of all, it is important to understand the reasons why Vladimir Putin started the war. Moscow was very close to the Ukrainian border, only 300 miles away.
Throughout its history, the country has avoided successful invasions such as those from Napoleon and Hitler due to the distance that had to be covered to reach Moscow. However, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, this distance decreased, and from the Russian point of view, it was necessary to significantly increase it. The problem was that if they expanded it so that all of Ukraine was under their control, then they would end up on the border with NATO countries, which the United States could not allow.
Thus, both sides had quite reasonable demands: the Americans did not want to see the Russians on the border with NATO, and the Russians did not want the Ukrainians to be close to Moscow. And as a result, they went to war. No one is winning in this war: Ukrainians will not be able to win the war, if by this we mean the defeat of the Russians. The Russians over the past year and a half have not had the strength to break the Ukrainians or even come close. The Americans, being very cunning, do not participate in the war directly, but do everything to ensure that it continues.
In this situation, it is necessary to say: this must stop, because all this is really stupid. This war must stop. Russia won’t get what it wanted, but it can be offered something different. For example, a technological exchange with the United States, which will allow Russia to build civilian products and become quite rich. Because the secret is that, yes, they worry about Napoleon, but in fact they want to become rich. They want their oligarchs to prosper, and the United States can give them that.
However, Russia will have to agree to only a small part of Ukraine, perhaps the Donbass. And the Ukrainians will have to accept the fact that they will not be able to defeat the Russians and although they will retain most of their territory, but not all. This is politically very difficult for every country: for Putin to admit that he failed, for the Ukrainians to admit that they did not win. But there is no other choice. The war is over, it’s just that no one knows how to stop.”
2024-01-21 18:00:45
#George #Friedman #war #Ukraine
