/ world today news/ The Research Center of the Organization of Industrialists expects a slight decline in production in the first two quarters and an annual growth of 1.9% until the end of the year, with a forecasted growth of 4% in October this year.
In 2022, GDP will grow by just +1.9% “with a large downward revision (-2.2)” from the October forecast of +4%. A research center of the General Confederation of Italian Industry, Confindustria for short, adds that this refers to a scenario where “the length of the war in Ukraine is the decisive variable” and it is assumed that uncertainty and tension will cease or decrease from July. According to experts from the Association of Industrialists, compared to +2.3% growth obtained for “the excellent recovery last year”, GDP will fall by 0.2% in the first quarter and by 0.5% in the second, pushing the country into a technical recession, albeit on a limited scale. Hence the return of production to pre-Covid levels “postponed from the second quarter of this year to the first quarter of next.”
„Even in a less complicated scenario, the numbers published in the report are “very scary”, said Confindustria president Carlo Bonomi. “They reinforce the growing and unfortunately unheard alarm that Confindustria expressed before the war, when the slowdown was already visible. “These scenarios and these figures should be a very strong warning to the institutions and politicians of our country.
The warning, which is clearly aimed at getting more resources from the government, is that “in many ways today we see a similar trend around us: to believe that maybe in a few weeks the conflict in Ukraine will be over and everything will go back to the old life . As we thought about the pandemic. It wasn’t true last year, it won’t be true this 2022.” So, he says, “it is time to abandon these risky delusions. And let’s take structural and adequate measures.”
The Minister of Economy recalled that the executive power “has intervened several times to moderate the cost of energy, with 19 billion allocated so far, 14 of which are for the first two quarters of 2022. We introduced a system of tax breaks for companies to cover energy costs and reduced the price of fuel by 25 cents for the first time in Italy. I believe that business assistance is possible in the future.”
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