International• 3 Sep ’23 14:00Author: Mark van Harreveld
The future security of Europe is at stake if Ukraine loses the war, says professor of international relations and director Rob de Wijk of the The Hague Center for Strategic Studies in BNR’s Big Five. “What is at stake is that we are moving towards a situation where the Cold War has nothing to do with it, we are moving towards containment 2.0.”
‘In one fell swoop, India has become a player,’ says De Wijk. After all, India did not want to make a choice in the Ukrainian tug-of-war and continues to do business calmly with Russia (India depends for a large part of its defense on Russian equipment). (AP/Associated Press/Aijaz Rahi)
De Wijk clarifies containment 2.0 (containment): in the Cold War there was indeed containment from the Soviet Union, but there were countless mutual contacts. This is not the case now: 2.0 means the minimization of contacts, ‘with the Russians also politically and economically shifting their center of gravity to other parts of the world’. de Wijk refers to the BRICS countries. These are an exit for him, a way to stay in the saddle and to escape the Western sanctions.
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Global power shift
And so Ukraine is one-to-one related to the changing global political and economic power field. A change that is not necessarily in favor of the West. The consequences for Europe and the US of a possible Ukrainian loss are major: not only does it lead to a return to the Cold War and a militarization of relations, it is a signal to China to take a more assertive stance in the South China Sea, the Pacific and with respect to Taiwan.
‘In one fell swoop India has become a player’
Rob de Wijk, Professor of International Relations
Listen to the entire conversation here
“If Ukraine loses this, China will be rubbing its hands. This will then be the final downfall of the West and that is how the BRICS countries will see it,’ says De Wijk.
De Wijk compares the emergence of the BRICS countries with that of the non-aligned countries in the 1960s. back to square one, back to the Cold War. With one important difference, and that is the key role played by superpower India. ‘In one fell swoop, India has become a player,’ says De Wijk. After all, India did not want to make a choice in the Ukrainian tug-of-war and continues to do business calmly with Russia (India depends for a large part of its defense on Russian equipment).
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BRICS, the new anti-West
According to De Wijk, India seems to be becoming the informal leader of The Global South, as the BRICS countries are also called. He sees it as a reckoning with the West. Because the BRICS is anything but a homogeneous club of friends: India and China are in fact mortal enemies. The BRICS countries, recently expanded with the umpteenth undemocratic player Iran, find themselves in their common aversion to Western hegemony. ‘India is the most important player we should focus on’, says De Wijk. After all, India is very critical of China – the core of India’s naval construction program is anti-Chinese.
“If Europe and America don’t hold on to each other, then we’re the losers”
Rob de Wijk, Professor of International Relations
De Wijk thinks that the BRICS countries will cooperate on a number of issues, such as raw materials and energy, to put pressure on the West.
Wildcard Trump
The big wild card in this story? The American elections of which no one knows what they will bring, but of which many fear the possible outcome. If Trump wins, De Wijk fears that this will have serious repercussions for transatlantic relations. These will be seriously weakened, while more and more undemocratic countries do find each other in an anti-Western bloc. “If Europe and America don’t hold on to each other, then we’re the losers. Europe is insufficiently aware of this. This is not trivial what is happening here.’
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2023-09-03 12:00:14
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