The Future of Solar Eclipses: Will They Disappear?

KOMPAS.com – A solar eclipse is one of the astronomical phenomena that people are most looking forward to.

There are several types of astronomical phenomena, ranging from total solar eclipses, annular solar eclipses, to partial solar eclipses.

However, astronomer from the Hayden Planetarium, New York, United States, Joe Rao predicts that a solar eclipse may not be visible in the future.

Reporting from SpaceSunday (8/10/2023), this condition is because the average distance of the Moon to Earth increases by around 3.8 centimeters every year.

As a result, instead of a total solar eclipse, it is likely that the eclipse will only take the form of a ring of fire or circle annular.

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The phenomenon of a solar eclipse

A solar eclipse occurs when the Moon is directly between the Earth and the Sun, so that the Moon’s shadow falls on part of the Earth’s surface.

Reported from the page Bosscha Observatorythis shadow is divided into three parts, namely umbra, penumbra and antumbra.

The umbra is the central shadow, so it will appear very dark during an eclipse.

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In contrast, the penumbra is a hazy shadow that occurs when the eclipse phenomenon takes place.

Meanwhile, the antumbra is a continuation of the umbra, but with a brighter appearance.

The Moon’s shadow that falls on the Earth’s surface will cover the appearance of the Sun.

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If the Moon’s shadow completely covers the Sun, it is called a total solar eclipse.

However, when the Moon is at its farthest point from Earth, its shadow will not be able to cover the entire surface of the Sun.

Because the size of the Moon still looks smaller when viewed from Earth, the Sun’s light will look like a ring of fire. This phenomenon is known as an annular solar eclipse.

Also read: Can the annular solar eclipse in October 2023 be seen in Indonesia?

The umbra must hit the Earth for a total eclipse to occur

nasa.gov Umbra and penumbra

Joe Rao explained that the Moon moves around the Earth in an elliptical orbit or path.

At its closest point to Earth or so-called perigeethe Moon can approach within a distance of 356,371 kilometers.

When you are at the farthest point from Earth or apogee, the distance is 406,720 kilometers. Meanwhile, the average distance from the Earth to the Moon is 384,748 kilometers.

“For a total eclipse to occur, the dark umbral shadow of the Moon must be in contact with the Earth’s surface,” Rao said.

The area of ​​the Earth’s surface that is affected by this shadow will experience a total solar eclipse because the Moon’s dark shadow completely covers the Sun.

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However, this shadow generally has an average length of only about 378,000 kilometers, smaller than the average distance of the Moon from Earth.

“That’s why, when the new Moon passes directly between the Earth and the Sun, if the distance is generally more than 378,000 kilometers, the edge of the dark umbral shadow will fail to make contact with the Earth,” said Rao.

Instead, he said, a “negative shadow” or channel of the umbra known as the antumbra, would be created.

Quoted Live ScienceWednesday (11/10/2023), these conditions gave rise to the phenomenon of an annular solar eclipse, as will occur in most parts of America on October 14 2023.

Also read: There will be 4 eclipses throughout 2023, 3 can be seen in Indonesia, what are they?

The Moon is moving away from the Earth

Wikimedia Illustration of a penumbral lunar eclipse

On the other hand, from July 1969 to December 1972, 12 astronauts on the Apollo mission left a series of laser reflectors on the surface of the Moon.

Since then, astronomers on Earth have routinely bounced lasers to accurately measure the distance between the Moon and Earth.

Analysis of these measurements shows that the average distance of the Moon from Earth increases by about 3.8 centimeters every year.

This condition is because the movement of the Moon is greatly disturbed by the attraction of the Sun, and slightly disturbed by the attraction of the planets and the Earth.

Therefore, the Moon slowly moves further and further from Earth, turning outward and rising to a more distant orbit.

As the Moon moves further away, its size will appear to decrease until it finally reaches a point where the umbral shadow is too far away to fall on the Earth’s surface.

“And thereby preventing a total solar eclipse from occurring,” said Rao.

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Meanwhile, in his book entitled More Mathematical Astronomy MorselsMeteorologist and astronomer Jean Meeus said that the current rate of movement of the Moon from Earth, which is 3.8 meters per century, will remain constant.

If this is true, then it will take around 1.21 billion years before the phenomenon of a total solar eclipse becomes impossible to experience.

However, if one takes into account the fact that the shape of the Earth’s orbit varies more rapidly than the very slow and gradual increase in the Moon’s distance, there may not be a need to wait that long.

“As a result, from the next 620 million to 1,210 million years, there will be a period where a total solar eclipse will alternately be possible and impossible, until finally this phenomenon will remain impossible forever,” said Meeus.

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2023-10-12 13:30:00
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