THE NORWEGIAN THEATER (Nettavisen): Dr. Fatih Birol, head of the International Energy Agency (IEA), is at Equinor’s autumn conference.
– After the conflict in Russia and Ukraine, the prices of natural gas increased. We didn’t know at the time if there was enough gas. Now we see yet another conflict in the Middle East.
– We also see another very important trend that makes me very happy. It is that a new global energy economy, a clean energy economy, is emerging quickly, and faster than many of us understand.
The future
Every year, the IEA publishes a report on the energy outlook for the world. According to Birol, the energy world looks very different in 2030:
– In almost all countries, all car manufacturers prioritize electric cars. It is not driven by the motivation to save the planet, but for the sake of business.
According to the IEA’s report, more than 50 percent of today’s power plants are supplied with fossil energy.
Birol says that in 2030, 80 percent of all new power plants will be renewable. This also applies to offshore wind. The use of fossil energy is decreasing, this applies to both coal and natural gases. When it comes to heating, which uses a lot of energy, it also looks different:
– In all major markets such as China, Japan and Northern Europe, heat pumps are taking over sales of fossil-fueled heating methods.
When it comes to investments, investments in clean energy are also starting to become the norm.
– These points taken together mean that global coal, oil and gas consumption will reach a peak, even with current policies. But I expect that more governments that see climate change and economic trends will strengthen their policies towards clean energy.
Steep decline
– After the peak, the decline for fossil fuels will not be slow. It will be a steep decline.
Birol points out that the future looks different for the different countries.
– For countries with advanced economies, we will see that the decline will be abrupt. I think this is an important trend for the oil and gas producers to reflect on whether it is necessary for large-scale fossil investments.
– This does not mean that tomorrow we must stop investing in oil and gas. The oil and gas fields are going down, you have to inject money to keep production at a certain level.
Climate and gender problem
– Four out of five families in Africa are still dependent on primitive cooking methods. They use wood and manure from animals to cook.
Birol says this causes many respiratory diseases for women, who are often the ones who prepare the food.
– This is one of the two biggest causes of death among women and children in Africa. This is also a climate problem, in that they have to cut trees to use for cooking. I am very surprised that the world does not stand up and put an end to this
He says that it is a gender problem, as it is women who are most affected.
– Equality is not only about the percentage of women who sit on the boards of companies, but also this.
– They die. To solve this problem, it costs four billion dollars every year. It’s just peanuts.
Birol says he will take action to bring people together to look at solutions to the problem.
Unstable situation
Oil and Energy Minister Terje Aasland is also present. He says there are few signs of a quick end to Russia’s war in Ukraine, and the war between Israel and Palestine contributes to geopolitical unrest.
– The situation is still unstable and uncertain for many. At the same time, we are seeing the impacts of climate change at unprecedented levels. There are floods and forest fires all over the world. Last year was also a record year for greenhouse gas emissions.
Next week, the UN climate summit COP28 will be held in Dubai.
– The world leaders must agree on an ambitious solution. It’s not going fast enough. We must accelerate and have two focuses at the same time, we must increase investments in renewable energy and we must develop the oil and gas sector.
– Do you think a natural decline in the use of fossil fuels is enough?
– Yes I believe. With the help of new technology, we can cut greenhouse gas emissions by using fossil energy. I think the oil and gas companies are necessary to reach the targets by 2050, through the development of new technology.
Aasland is asked what Norway should do to prevent more companies from moving to the USA.
– We fight every day to keep them.
– But they are moving to the United States.
– Some industries are moving, yes. But I think we can develop the industry and cut emissions. Norway has big ambitions for offshore wind.
– But you are not going to spend heavily on subsidies?
– No, I think we have to look at new technologies. We will be an attractive nation for investment in the future as well.
2023-11-21 09:43:03
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