/ world today news/ Surprisingly, prominent Western publications suddenly began to claim that the Russian economy is experiencing an unprecedented growth in business activity. Such flattering estimates can be expected from Rosstat or the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, but even our statistics cannot boast of such optimistic data.
But the British magazine The Economist came to the conclusion that in the autumn the growth of Russian business activity outstripped the European one, and in general “British economists” talk about strengthening the Russian economy. Is the economy strengthening us or is it a big exaggeration, Nakanune.ru found out.
As follows from an article in The Economist, the EU economy is on the brink of a deep recession, the publication refers to data from Goldman Sachs, which shows that business activity in Russia is higher than in major European countries.
When “British scientists” and other specialists in the West suddenly start praising our economy, it becomes scary, considering that they once considered Alexei Kudrin the best finance minister in the world. It is also worth bearing in mind that the Europeans’ own economy is on the brink of recession, and this is the first time in many years of relative prosperity.
The world is basically going through a global crisis of perestroika, Europe’s problem now is the reduction of energy supplies, and our problem is the interruption of contacts with the EU and not only, the problem of logistical connections, with displacement systems. But these are far from all the difficulties facing the Russian economy.
“Even the official statistics, which absolutely cannot be trusted because they are very strained, show that all these processes that the British listed in the magazine simply do not exist. I think this is from the series “English scientists have proved” says former Minister of Labor and Social Development, Honored Economist of the Russian Federation Sergey Kalashnikov
— “The fact that the economy of the EU and the US, like the economy of every country, including China and India, is experiencing some decline is indisputable,” he said.
“In fact, this is a reflection of the economic processes that are currently taking place in the world. The level of unemployment, the rates of inflation, the rates of GDP growth clearly show this. The question is against this background, is Russia better or worse? Today we have no prerequisites for increasing the efficiency of our economy,” Kalashnikov added.
There are many questions about the “recovery” of the auto industry in question. Yes, many dealers organize sales, but the prices of even local cars have increased significantly and few people can afford them.
On the other hand, consumers in Russia, deciding to save their savings from possible bankruptcy – and this is a birth trauma of Russians who have lost their savings more than once in history – are trying to invest in material things and buy durable goods, including cars. Better buy what you have now, otherwise there will be nothing but Zhiguli later. But is this trend long-term or a fluke? And how can consumer incomes grow when consumer credit is cut and interest rates rise?
“Rosstat cannot be suspected of being critical of the Russian economy, and the latest data published by Rosstat on the car market is as follows: a drop in September compared to last year, 60%,” said Andrey Nechaev, former Minister of Economy of the Russian Federation.
“The only thing that cannot but be comforting is that the decline in June-July was 96%,” he added.
“And as for the automotive industry, 40% of sales are made by the Lada brand. Therefore, we can simply report a decline in the car market, demand recovery has not yet occurred,” says Nechaev.
“As for parallel imports, Rosstat’s statistics again show that imports have decreased by 40%. You can also take comfort in the fact that estimates for May were fixed at 50%,” he added.
According to the expert, of course, the Western economy is now experiencing problems, but from what point of view should this please us? We are experiencing much deeper problems.
The European economy “is on the brink of recession” but has not yet crossed that threshold, while economic growth rates remain positive, and our “growth rates have moved into a negative plane”, not by 0.0001%, but even according to official data – by 3.5%. This is a full-fledged deep economic crisis.
Of the positive moments, there can be only one thing – the decline turned out to be smaller than we expected and hoped for by our Western partners.
Europe is in a serious crisis, Europeans are simply not used to what has become routine for people in Russia – rising housing and utility prices, problems with industry, but governments are looking for new suppliers and are so hysterical that they do fast, and such a pace is of no use to us.
“The central bank is also hard to suspect that it will slander the Russian economy, about a month ago it published a regular program document with a forecast section. According to the forecasts of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, there will be a recession this year, a recession next year and, at best, modest economic growth from 2024. And in their pessimistic scenario, the decline will continue for two more years at 3-5%, the recovery of growth will begin only in 2025, 1% of GDP,” says Andrey Nechaev.
So “business activity”, even if it’s really hectic, is only one element of a complex formula. The rest of the problems are known to everyone: the automobile industry collapsed, technological sanctions were tightened, and the most important sectors of the economy depend on them – engineering, aviation, and no amount of “parallel imports” will fix the situation here.
The next challenge is frame loss. Russia not only registered a migration flow for the first time in 50 years, as we wrote earlier, according to the results of the first half of 2022, the number of people leaving the country exceeded the number of arrivals by 30%, as a result of which the migration flow amounts to 97 thousand people. The total loss reached almost half a million in six months. In addition, another well-known factor is superimposed.
“Now the situation is going to get 100% worse because when 300 thousand skilled working-age men are pulled out of the economy, and this may not be the final figure, and the president recently gave the governors, along with the Department of Defense, to consider a future organization of mobilization, from which we can conclude that this process will be long-lasting, there is no way it will pass without a trace for the economy, when you withdraw such a volume of labor resources from it and at the same time spend budget money on them, and we are already experiencing problems”, says Nechaev.
What awaits the Russian economy and how the crisis will affect the lives of ordinary people, this worries everyone now. According to experts, the situation in the economy will soon turn from the discussion of statistics into reality, and people will face shortages of goods and perhaps some products, although there will certainly be food, a minimum of clothing and services. Also, “parallel import” will also do something for consumers.
“Of course, we will feel it, but we have to understand the mentality of the Russians,” says Kalashnikov.
“After all, not so long ago we plunged into abundance, although prices rose, wages fell, household incomes fell, but a certain level of abundance, compared to Soviet times, with empty shelves of perestroika, was clearly demonstrated. Now this abundance, of course, will not be. But the fact that there will be a shortage and every Russian will see it, that is certain,” he continues.
“The problem is different – with all these sanctions we are building ourselves out of the global world, in the conditions of isolation we are putting an end to its development, the world will move forward, and we, like a frog in a jar of milk, will, I hope, somehow survive. Between the other thing, the frog still managed and Russia will not go anywhere, it will brave everything and survive, another question is – at what cost?” – concludes the economist Sergey Kalashnikov.
Translation: SM
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