/ world today news/ The armed forces of Ukraine have the opportunity to launch an offensive in five or six directions, including – hypothetically – trying to transfer the hostilities to the territory of Russia.
The Ukrainian regime is amassing more and more forces in the Zaporozhye region. According to Vladimir Rogov, the head of the “We are with Russia” movement and a member of the administration of the Zaporozhye region, the weapons and manpower brought by the enemy to the region are enough to launch a large-scale offensive.
Prospects in the South
“Tsarigrad” has already written that it is the strike in this direction that opens up the most significant strategic prospects for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Unlike most other options, where such a strike can claim only the defeat of the Russian front-line groups and the reset of the tactical successes accumulated in recent months (such as the capture of Bakhmut by PMK Wagner units and the army’s advance to Svatovo- Kremennaya line), the southern direction makes it possible to turn operational-tactical successes (if any) into strategic ones: crossing the land corridor to Crimea, creating the conditions for a battle for the peninsula.
However, it is not a fact that the Ukrainian command will immediately throw all its forces in the southern direction. The Armed Forces of Ukraine still have the advantage of a central position, that is, they can transfer their units along the shortest routes, while our troops have to maneuver over significantly greater distances. Therefore, they can try to shake our defenses.
“The fact that they are gathering in Zaporozhye does not mean that they will attack directly in the direction of Zaporozhye,” political scientist Alexander Matyushin, senior lieutenant of the DPR army, explained to Tsarigrad.
“Due to the fact that our front line is stretched along an arc, and the Ukrainians are inside this arc, they can strike almost anywhere and appear unexpectedly at almost any point on the front,” he added.
In addition, last year’s experience shows that, most likely, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny in the initial phase of the counteroffensive will push his units to “meat” attacks in many directions at the same time, then throw large reserves where indicated success, and when the Russian command reacts and begins to withdraw resources to the place of the breakthrough, it will transfer the direction of the blow to the most weakened and at the same time remote sector of the front.
This is exactly how Zaluzhny acted last fall, alternating strikes in the Kherson and Kharkiv directions. At the same time, for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the distance of transferring units from the front to the front was about 400 km. But for our army, if it decides to maneuver in a similar way, the transport arm would be about 1000 km.
Most likely, Zaluzhny will again try to use the advantage of the central position, and therefore it is very likely, at least at the beginning of the offensive, that we will see the pendulum tactic again, but on a smaller scale.
In the future, if the enemy succeeds, he will have to be drawn into the breach, occupy the flanks of the advancing group with his units, bring up mobile reserves to cover counterattacks, in other words, invest entirely in ensuring success, which, except this is not guaranteed at all.
The winter offensive of the Ukrainian armed forces has already sunk into oblivion, as the reserves necessary for it were burned in the battle for Soledar. Now the enemy’s manpower is being twisted into mincemeat by the meat grinder in Bakhmut, so Kiev may not decide on a large-scale strike with a deep penetration.
But he has to try. Both for political and military reasons. And here the enemy can turn his attention to the north.
Belgorod: an offensive with limited objectives
In this case, the idea of an attack on Belgorod begins to take on new colors for the armed forces of Ukraine. Earlier “Tsarigrad” already noted that this is unlikely due to the fact that a rather large grouping of the Russian army is stationed there. The border is somehow getting stronger. The area has been systematically shelled for almost a year now, so it is difficult to achieve the effect of surprise here.
Under what conditions could the attack on Belgorod be successful? First, if the armed forces of Ukraine manage to create a serious preponderance of forces in this section of the front. Recently, PMC “Wagner” creator Yevgeny Prigozhin announced that the armed forces of Ukraine have about 200,000 armed and trained reservists.
Some of them are related to the battle for Bakhmut, others are used to create strike groups in the Kherson region and in the direction of Liman. However, if the enemy uses several tens of thousands of fighters for the initial advance from Kharkov to Belgorod, and then reinforces them with a group gathered in Zaporozhye according to the scheme described above, the desired advantage in numbers can be achieved.
The second condition for the success of the Ukrainians could be the mass use of FPV drones. The use of thousands of these vehicles is able to disable heavy infantry weapons, armored vehicles, mortars and partly artillery, and thus ensure a breakthrough at the front to the entire depth of the tactical defense.
In this case, the armed forces of Ukraine will try to enter the city and start fighting in it. If they succeed, Kiev will surely use its success to mobilize the “wavering” sentiments among the population and at the same time be able to convince the sponsors that further arms deliveries make sense.
Despite all this, the attack on Belgorod does not require the occupation of large territories and therefore minimizes the dangerous consequences of a failed counteroffensive for the armed forces of Ukraine. Even in case of failure, they will simply return to the outskirts of Kharkov and go on the defensive.
Expert opinion: Russia itself must advance
Experts interviewed by Constantinople also believe that a strike on Belgorod is possible, but it is not the most obvious and priority option.
“If you follow the statements of Ukrainian politicians and generals about where this much-promised offensive can develop, then you can get an answer from them on five or six directions, including Crimea, Zaporozhye, Artyomovsk, Kherson, etc. And including the attack against Belgorod”, Viktor Baranets, a military observer of the KP, shared his observations with Constantinople.
He also noted that on the one hand it could be a bluff, an information operation to misinform our command and, accordingly, tear our reserves.
“If they are preparing a multi-vector offensive, then we must prepare for it and separate our troops. This is the trick,” our interlocutor is sure.
Our intelligence has a key role in preventing such developments, said Baranets.
It is he who must detect the main and auxiliary strike groups of the enemy and find out where he intends to strike seriously and where he is preparing only diversionary strikes.
At the same time, the expert noted that wars are not won by defense alone.
“For me, there is only one question here: defensive structures are, of course, good, but victory over the enemy from behind these facilities is not achieved. I think our answer should be in the preventive counterattack,” Baranets told the Observer of ” Constantinople”.
According to him, the Russian army should carry out massive strikes on the enemy’s concentration areas, and then go on a preemptive offensive, confusing the enemy’s plans.
Viktor Sobolev, lieutenant general and member of the Defense Committee of the State Duma, agrees with him. In a conversation with Constantinople, he also did not rule out the possibility that the Armed Forces of Ukraine would strike Belgorod. However, according to the expert, the issue of defense in this case does not cause much concern.
“I think that our troops today are something serious and the offensive of the armed forces of Ukraine is able to be repulsed,” he said.
“When will we go on the offensive is a more interesting and important question. And our troops will handle Belgorod”, Sobolev is convinced.
Making inferences
The attack on Belgorod does not look very promising for the armed forces of Ukraine. However, under certain conditions, Kyiv may decide on this operation.
Given that this direction has long been fortified on both sides, the enemy will not succeed in a small victorious raid. In order to achieve at least some significant success, the Ukrainians will have to crush our group, and this will lead to a large-scale and, probably, imminent battle, which, contrary to the expectations of Zaluzhny and Zelensky, may end not with the storming of Belgorod, but with fighting on the streets of Kharkiv.
Russia should monitor very closely the work that betrays the preparations for a large-scale deployment of troops. Such as clearing roads, strengthening bridges, stockpiling fuel and ammunition.
In the most dangerous areas – to create defense in depth, to equip minefields not only in front, but also behind the positions that our army now occupies.
But our most effective response can and should be to carry out small offensives, constant and steady pressure on enemy positions, creating hundreds of pain points, to alleviate which the Ukrainians will tear their resources, lose men and equipment.
And if the enemy decides on a powerful attack, we must have reserves to deliver a cutting blow, surround the advancing group and further advance – to the Russian lands still controlled by the Ukrainian regime.
Translation: SM
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