The flow of oil and the removal of Wagner elements are two priorities for Western powers in Libya

Rashid Khashana – The most widely discussed scenario currently is the formation of a new government, from which Dabaiba, Al-Mishri, and Aguila Saleh are excluded, and its mission is limited to preparing for general elections, after agreeing on its constitutional terms of reference.

All statements suggesting, directly or indirectly, that there is an agreement to remove “Wagner” mercenaries from Libyan territory, cannot be trusted in their authenticity unless they are put to the test and the withdrawal actually begins. It is clear that CIA Director William Burns exerted strong pressure on retired Major General Khalifa Haftar, during their recent meeting in Benghazi, in order to abandon the Russian mercenary group. Washington views the group as an essential formation of Russian forces, whether those invading Ukraine or deployed abroad. It is not unlikely that Moscow will resort to camouflage and maneuvering and temporarily transfer some of its mercenaries to Ukraine or Niger via southern Libya, awaiting their return at the appropriate time.
Whether or not Wagner leaves will put the statements and commitments announced here and there to the test, because the Russians’ departure will be followed by the withdrawal of other foreign forces, albeit formally, in the context of preparing the atmosphere for the presidential and parliamentary elections. If the withdrawal step is taken seriously, other steps will follow, the most important of which is the collection of heavy weapons and their removal from cities and population centers. But the most complex step, and perhaps the most difficult to achieve, is the dissolution of the paramilitary bodies, which took the place of the state, and became mini-states that shared control over neighborhoods and cantons and imposed the law, their law. By extension, the warlords will obstruct any settlement that limits their influence.
The warlords in Libya today are not only militia leaders, but also political officials who act like warlords, including members of the House of Representatives and the Supreme Council of State, in addition to retired Major General Khalifa Haftar, who leads the largest militia in the eastern region. What is strangest is that the government of Abdul Hamid Al-Dabaiba pays salaries to the military bodies it protects, and at the same time provides salaries to recruits in Haftar’s army, on a monthly basis. The simplest evidence of this is that the latter refused to provide information about the beneficiaries of monthly financial transfers to the Eastern Region. If the cover was revealed about the consequences of the large transfers, the hidden names would appear in the picture, including the “Wagner” mercenaries.

Burns demand

Haftar has a strong card to put pressure on the government in Tripoli, if it fails or delays in transferring all these salaries, as he will quickly push his forces to the ports and oil fields, to occupy them and stop the export of oil and gas, partially or completely, which forces the government in Tripoli to submit. From this angle, we understand why William Burns focused, in a strict tone, during his meeting with Haftar at Al-Rajma base (east) and before that with Abdul Hamid Al-Dabaiba in Tripoli, on this issue because the continued flow of oil and gas to Washington’s allies in Western Europe is a vital matter and a security need. Amid turmoil in Russian oil and gas exports.
It is certain that Washington’s interest lies in ensuring that the collapse of the political process in Libya does not lead to the outbreak of a new war, in which Wagner is an active party, and that the flow of Libyan oil and gas continues so that the energy crisis does not deepen in Europe, in light of the decline in Russian energy supplies, in particular. After the decision to cap their prices.
American sources believe that the Wagner Group retained 300 Russians and 700 Syrians in eastern Libya, including around oil installations and Haftar’s Al-Khadim air base. As for Türkiye, it established its bases in the west of the country. CIA Director Burns confirmed, on a visit to Georgetown University in Washington, that the administration of President Joseph Biden is working hard to confront “Wagner because it poses a threat to Africans, throughout the continent,” he said. After Burns’ visit to Libya, the US Treasury Department classified the Wagner Group as a “transnational criminal organization.”
Major General Haftar brought Russian mercenaries to Libya in 2018 to assist in the attack on Tripoli. Following his defeat, the withdrawal of his forces to the eastern region, and the formation of a unified government in 2021, Wagner and its Syrian allies moved away from the spotlight, only to return to it with the outbreak of war in Ukraine, and the increasing role it played on the battlefield. In this context, Burns’ visit to Libya is considered part of a renewed campaign led by President Biden’s administration against Wagner, after the latter played an increasing role in the Ukraine war, in parallel with expanding its influence to other regions of Africa. It is noteworthy that the Commissioner for Security and External Relations in the European Union, Josep Boral, confirmed that Wagner agents are providing the personal guard for several presidents and high-ranking officials in African countries that he did not name.
More than that revealed an official document, accidentally leaked! From one of the security services in Mali, late last year, it was reported that the “National Agency for State Security,” which is run by Malian President Assimi Goeta himself, is a contributor to the financing of the “Wagner” forces. The document showed a crazy increase in the agency’s appropriations in the next budget, as it jumped from 3 million euros last year, to 180 million euros scheduled for this year. But these statements from Mali must be taken with some caution, because France is still on the line of conflict with the military regime there, and is turning its neighbors against it. It was reported that, shortly after their arrival in Mali in 2021, Wagner members began searching for gold mines, of which Mali is considered one of the major producers in Africa. However, they have not officially concluded any contracts for extraction with the financial authorities, in contrast to the dealings with them in Central Africa and Sudan, which granted them privileges to search for gold, uranium and other precious metals.
The group and its founder, Yevgeny Prikhugin, nicknamed “Putin’s chef,” have been subject to US sanctions since 2017. In December 2022, the Biden administration announced new restrictions to disrupt technology access to the group’s members. The Wagner elements in Libya constitute a fully-fledged army, as they are equipped with armored vehicles, air defense systems, combat aircraft, and other equipment provided by Russia, and paid for by the UAE.
In an article in Le Monde newspaper, French journalist Morgan Lecham suggests that the Wagner Group is losing money in Mali. He goes on to ask whether it finances its activities there from what it reaps from its operations in Libya, Sudan and Central Africa? Therefore, it maintains its presence in Mali, despite the loss, due to the strategic importance that this vast country holds, especially for Paris, within the arc of its influence in the Sahel and the Sahara. According to the American news agency Associated Press, the Biden administration has been cooperating for months with regional powers, especially Egypt and the UAE, to put pressure on the military leaders in Sudan and Libya to end their relations with the group. As a result of this important variable, Washington announced, within the framework of the American-African Summit, which was held a month before Burns’ visit to Libya, the allocation of $55 billion to Africa, hoping to undermine Russian and Chinese influence on the continent.

The Election Commission is ready

In this atmosphere, there have been many statements and counter-statements in Libya about the elections, but none of the declarers are honest in what they say. It is most likely that the elections will not take place this year, because the internal and regional conditions are not ready for elections of such sensitivity and gravity. The most widely discussed scenario currently is the formation of a new government, from which Dabaiba, Al-Mishri, and Aguila Saleh are excluded, and its mission is limited to preparing for general elections, after agreeing on its constitutional terms of reference. It can be said that the administrative and technical supervision of the electoral process is guaranteed by the High National Elections Commission, whose head, Imad Al-Sayeh, assures his visitors that it is 98 percent ready to carry out its role in the electoral entitlement. German expert on Libyan affairs, Wolfram Lacher, says that the majority of observers doubt that the elections will be held soon.
He attributed this to “the enormous obstacles facing this process, including the main parties’ adherence to their positions, whether they are local parties or foreign powers, and their unwillingness to risk an uncertain process.” However, at the same time, Lakher rules out the resumption of the civil war between East and West, in compliance with an international resolution to end the armed conflict in Libya, due to its dangerous repercussions on security and stability in the entire region.
As the chances of a political solution recede, sterile meetings and Byzantine discussions increase, similar to the dialogues of Khaled Al-Mishri and Aguila Saleh, which were nothing more than a time gain and nothing more. Many accuse Al-Mishri and Saleh of working to prolong their stay in office, and taking advantage of the great privileges they enjoy, because if they participate in new elections, they will most likely fail to return to their seats. The recent statements of Presidential Council member Musa Al-Koni confirmed that the ruling elite is the one obstructing the path to a political solution, as the Dabaiba government is capable, in his opinion, of holding elections, as the internationally recognized government. However, the internal and external parties agree not to conduct it “because that is in all of their interests,” he said.
On the other hand, it was noted that an emerging Libyan elite has emerged, working to create a new reality on the ground, rejecting politicians and threatening them with accountability. However, this young elite is still far from decision-making power, and it needs to unite its ranks to make its voice heard, which is still weak and sporadic, especially after the measures taken by the Dabaiba government to tighten its grip on the media. Perhaps the celebrations of the twelfth anniversary of the February 17, 2011 uprising are an occasion for its emergence, in an organized manner, on the Libyan scene.

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