The European Central Bank (ECB) has reduced interest rates three times official this year (in June, September and October) and the Euribor has dropped almost a point and a half between its value recorded in January and the one that, for now, it accumulates in October 2024. But how are these movements affecting the Spanish mortgage market? The mortgage comparator and advisor iAhorro has published its iAhorro Index this Thursday to precisely analyze the evolution of the market so far this year and more specifically during the third quarter of 2024 and provide its own forecasts for the coming months.
Among the most notable conclusions of this report we see that from the comparator they are clear that “The last quarter will be the best time of the year to get a mortgage”, explains Marcel Beyer, general director of iAhorro. Among the reasons is the ‘mortgage war’ that the banks are carrying out at this time and which is causing los interest rates of mortgages are reducing considerably.
The average TIN of mortgages has fallen by more than half a point
So much so that, according to the data provided by the comparator, the average interest rate achieved by its users on fixed mortgages was at the third quarter of 2024. 2,66% TINa figure that is 0.04 points lower than that recorded during the second quarter (2.70% TIN on average) and up to 0.22 points lower than that recorded between January and March (2.88% TIN). Likewise, with respect to what happened a year ago, iAhorro is seeing how its clients are now paying for this type of mortgage up to half a percentage point less interest: from the 3.11% TIN that was recorded on average in September 2023 to the 2.61% TIN recorded during the ninth month of this year.
It is true that not only fixed mortgages are becoming cheaper, banking is also reducing the interests of the mixed: according to data collected by iAhorro, those who opted for the mixed mortgage during the third quarter of 2024 had an initial average interest rate of 1.92%, a figure 0.15 points lower than that recorded during the second quarter (2.07% TIN) and also 0.30 points lower than that recorded during the first quarter of the year, between January and March 2024 (2.22% TIN). In this case, the difference between the TIN registered in September 2023 (2.41%) and the one recorded in September of this year (1.93%) is also close to half a point, specifically it is 0.48 percentage points.
The mixed mortgage continues to be the most chosen… for now
Thanks to the drop in interest rates on mortgage offers, the contracting of loans with a fixed interest rate is rising, although little by little. If we analyze the preferences of iAhorro users during the third quarter of 2024 for each type of mortgage, we see that, on average, 67.27% of iAhorro users signed a mixed mortgage, while 29.9% opted for for the fixed and only 2.83% for the variable.
However, in September, we have seen a turning point compared to other months and the fixed mortgage has recovered some ground, accounting for 36.31% of the signatures. This leads us to one of the most notable conclusions of the report published by iAhorro: in just one year the number of fixed mortgages has increased by 54.04% or, which is the same, 12.74 percentage points. And in September 2023 it was barely present in 23.57% of operations.
When will the fixed mortgage reign again?
“During the last few weeks, and even during the last month, we are seeing how the majority of people who call us to ask for help are looking, first, for a fixed mortgage. It is true that the conditions of the mixed ones are still a little more attractive during the fixed period, but if banks continue to make adjustments to their offers, soon the fixed mortgage will once again become the most contracted on the market,” explains Marcel Beyer.
When making forecasts, the general director of iAhorro does not want to venture too far, but assures that “The fixed mortgage, sooner or later, will become the queen again of the market” and perhaps we will see this “throughout 2025”, although it depends “on how all the macroeconomic indicators progress”.
