In recent years, there has been growing concern about Russian military activity around the undersea cables that form the backbone of the internet, a network of 500 undersea cables stretching hundreds of thousands of kilometers, transmitting terabits of data. data per second.
They carry 97% of global communications and are essential for transmitting government, financial and personal data. The threat of a coordinated attack could generate massive disruptions to global communications, affecting both civilians and military operations.
Although essential, these cables are surprisingly vulnerable. About 100 outages are reported each year, usually caused by anchor accidents or fishing activity.
What would happen if the entire global internet dependent on these cables were suddenly cut off?
Minute 1: the initial confusion
For the first minute, most people don’t notice the lack of internet. Apps and services that do not require a connection continue to work. Only those who try to send a message or update a web page realize that something is wrong.
Basic operations in businesses and homes continue, although some cloud-dependent systems are beginning to show failures. Critical services that rely on real-time data, such as traffic control centers and hospitals, could see a slight delay in their internal systems.
5 minutes: suspicion
After five minutes, the problem becomes more evident. Social networks do not update, messages are not sent and those who depend on the internet to work are beginning to worry. Messaging services and video calling platforms fail, affecting personal and professional communication.
Critical systems, such as hospitals and security forces, begin to activate their contingency plans and use radio and satellite communications to coordinate.
30 minutes: worry grows
Half an hour later, the impact is more palpable. Phone lines are jammed as people try to contact friends and family. Credit and debit cards stop working in stores and gas stations, causing long lines and confusion.
Banks fill with people trying to withdraw cash, anticipating bigger problems. Traffic control systems and transportation logistics may be affected, slowing mobility and the distribution of essential products.
1 hour: chaos in critical services
After an hour without internet, the impact on critical services becomes more evident. Hospital systems without access to digital medical records must resort to paper records, slowing care and increasing the risk of medical errors.
Communications between security forces are limited to radio systems and satellite phones, which cannot cover all coordination needs. In banks, lack of access to digital networks blocks transactions and causes chaos in branches.
6 hours: economic and social crisis
The lack of internet for six hours paralyzes the economy. Financial markets cannot operate, causing panic among investors. E-commerce and online payment platforms come to a complete halt.
Gas stations cannot accept electronic payments, leaving many drivers without fuel. Security systems that depend on the internet, such as surveillance cameras and alarms, stop working and the risk of theft and vandalism increases.
12 hours: despair and vulnerability
At 12 noon, the situation is critical. The only sources of information are radio and, in some cases, television, but even these media are beginning to fail due to the lack of digital infrastructure. Emergency services are saturated and overwhelmed due to the impossibility of communicating efficiently.
Security forces try to maintain order, but a lack of coordination and growing frustration among the population complicate the situation. Queues at banks become endless and many run out of cash as ATMs are not working.
24 hours: total chaos
After 24 hours, the impact on society is devastating. Modern life, dependent on digital technology, is reduced to total chaos. Hospitals, without access to electronic systems, must resort to manual procedures. Transportation and logistics services are paralyzed, which affects the distribution of food and medicine.
Communications between governments and international organizations are complicated, making crisis management difficult. The lack of accurate information generates confusion and panic in the population.
Privileged with alternative means
Although the majority of the population remains isolated, some privileged people have alternative means to stay connected. Corporations, governments and emergency services are turning to satellite communications and private networks, but even these systems have limitations and cannot replace the global connectivity of undersea cables.
A crucial role is played by radio amateurs who become a valuable resource to coordinate help and transmit information in emergency situations.
Too fragile
In conclusion, the global interruption of the internet would expose the fragility of our digital society. The dependence on the network for most daily activities, from economics to security, would become alarmingly evident.
Without the Internet, our social, economic and political structure would be left unprotected, which reveals the need to develop support infrastructures and contingency strategies in the face of possible scenarios of global disconnection.
* Professor of data analysis, privacy, ethics and AI, European University
- Text previously published in The Conversation.
