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The Fed Opens War Against Inflation, Is the Indonesian Market Safe?

Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia – The financial market was lively with a new record high on the stock exchange and the strengthening of the rupiah yesterday. However, weaker yields (yield) bonds indicate investors still harbor concerns that could materialize in today’s correction.

The Composite Stock Price Index (JCI) again set a record to its highest level in history (All Time High/ATH) at the close of yesterday, Tuesday (5/4/2022). JCI closed up 0.45% or 32.08 points at 7,148.29.

The jump mainly occurred in the last 15 minutes of trading, where the JCI was lifted up to 20 points on its own. Along with the strengthening of the main reference index of the national stock exchange, foreign investors scored net purchases (net buy) worth IDR 603 billion in the regular market.

The shares that were bought up the most by foreigners were shares of PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia Tbk (BBRI) with net buy Rp 126 billion. On the other hand, the shares that were mostly released by foreigners were PT Adaro Energy Tbk (ADRO) shares with net sales of Rp.net sell) of Rp. 111 billion.

Data from the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) shows a total net buy foreign investors reached more than Rp 800 billion in the regular, negotiable and cash markets. Thus, in the last 2 days they scored net buy more than Rp 1.25 trillion, and so far this year amounted to Rp 34.7 trillion.

Capital inflow This happened during Russia’s war with Ukraine which usually made market participants’ sentiment worse and avoided risky assets. But in fact the shares of Indonesian companies are still being hunted.

Following the inflow of foreign investment, the rupiah exchange rate recorded strengthening for 3 days in a row against the United States (US) dollar, although the strengthening was only slightly the same as the previous 2 days.

According to Refinitiv data, the rupiah opened trading by strengthening 0.1% to Rp 14,335/US$. However, slowly the strengthening was trimmed until it finally stagnates. However, the rupiah returned to the green zone and ended trading at Rp 14,345/US$, strengthening 0.06% on the spot market.

The majority of Asian bourses moved in the green zone in yesterday’s trading. The Straits Times Index led the gains with an appreciation of 0.51%. Risk assets ignore recession signals emerging from curve reversal yield US government bonds.

However, in general, investors are observed to be still worried about the short-term situation, as seen from the rush of government bonds or Government Securities (SBN) which suppressed yields yesterday.

The rush action occurred amid fears of a potential recession in several developed countries, especially in the United States (US) and Europe. Only SBN with a tenor of 3, 5, and 30 years were released by investors, marked by an increase yield and lower prices.

Yield SBN with a tenor of 3 years rose 5 basis points (bp) to a level of 3.634%, while yield SBN fell 5 years up 0.5 bp to the level of 5.654%, and yield The 30 -year SBN strengthened 1.4 bp to the level of 7.003%.

Meanwhile, yield The 10 -year -old SBN, which is the country’s reference SBN, weakened 0.2 bp to 6.749%. Yield in the opposite direction of the price, resulting in a decline yield shows that bond prices are strengthening, and vice versa. The unit of measurement of a basis point is equal to 1/100 of 1%.

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