Berlin (dpa) – Angela Merkel calls the citizens to act in solidarity in a television speech. That is as necessary as it has not been since the Second World War, the Chancellor says seriously.
Shortly thereafter, the federal and state governments decide to ban contacts for more than two people. The drastic emergency measures against the spread of the corona virus put Germany in an eerie silence in March.
Four months later, more than 205,000 people have been shown to be infected with Sars-CoV-2. Are we at the beginning of the second wave of infections? Is there even a new lockdown?
More than 170 positive tests by harvest helpers in Mamming in Lower Bavaria and at least 44 infections in tourism companies in St. Wolfgang in Austria show how quickly it can go. “The second wave of corona is already here,” said Saxony’s Prime Minister Michael Kretschmer (CDU). Freiburg medical statistician Gerd Antes does not believe in such warnings: the “second wave” is giving a wrong picture.
Others speak of a permanent wave that swells up and down. Or of embers that flare up, go out or grow together into a conflagration.
The fact is: the authorities are concerned. Worldwide, the World Health Organization (WHO) recorded a record of new infections within 24 hours on Friday. In Germany, the number of new infections registered rose to a high three-digit figure two days in a row at the end of the week. By Sunday morning there were “only” 305 new cases.
The pandemic has left deep traces in the country. 2.85 million people are unemployed – around 640,000 of them as a result of Corona. 6.8 million were recently on short-time work. The second quarter was a disaster for several companies. According to figures from the German Chamber of Industry and Commerce, half expect a noticeable improvement only in 2021 – or even later.
Hyperactivity, emotional problems, headaches and difficulty falling asleep increased in children and adolescents, as a study by the University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf shows. The Federal Medical Association is particularly concerned about the “collateral damage”. Many did not seek medical help at all or feared too late, said President Klaus Reinhardt. “In the emergency rooms alone, around 30 percent fewer patients with heart problems were treated. The complications after a heart attack increased significantly because many went to a clinic too late.”
The federal and state governments are alarmed. “We should do everything we can to prevent a second wave of infections,” urges Federal Labor Minister Hubertus Heil (SPD). “Especially for certain industries, I don’t want to imagine a setback – for example for the restaurateurs.”
Summer vacation risk. Virologists are anxiously waiting for the end of the holiday. Corona development is dramatic in many countries. Not only because of the celebrations at Ballermann in Mallorca, where the bars had to close again, there is great concern. All holidaymakers abroad can now have themselves tested for the virus free of charge after their return.
Large business risk. A new law with stricter rules for large slaughterhouses is in the cabinet this Wednesday after the infections at the sausage and meat company Tönnies. Health and safety is now central, says Heil. “Not only in the meat industry, but also in other areas so that the workplace does not become a source of infection.”
The Minister of Labor emphasizes that Germany has done very well in an international comparison – both in terms of protecting health and the state’s reactions to the deep economic cuts. But are you also prepared for a possible swelling at Corona?
The economic director of the Institute for the World Economy (IfW), Stefan Kooths, says: “The federal government’s economic measures are not robust compared to such a scenario.” The government is putting too much emphasis on incentives for mass consumption, too little on subsidies for companies in need of liquidity.
Reinhardt hopes that the infection rate will continue to be comparatively low – attainable through hygiene and distance. “Then we could also prevent a new nationwide lockdown from occurring, because society and the economy would hardly be able to withstand it to the same extent.”
However, the health care system can quickly switch back to crisis mode in the event of a resurgence of the pandemic, says Reinhardt. “Clinics and medical practices can quickly increase capacity in the event of a new Covid 19 wave.”
Kooths says: “Horror scenarios of a new complete lockdown are not realistic.” But all experts expected another batch of games by the end of the year – depending on the local and regional development, sometimes stricter, sometimes looser anti-infection rules.
In the opinion of the economic researcher, it remains uncomfortable either way. “The worst is yet to come on the job market.” Because the normal movement on the job market has come to a standstill, new hires have failed to appear and insolvency numbers are likely to rise in the fall, the number of unemployed will peak in winter at around three million. “Even without a big second wave, the crisis is far from over.”
–
