Antonio Costa is not the prime minister of Portugal – and this is a problem for the European socialists in their quest for a high post in the EU, Politico writes.
The centre-left had hoped Costa would be given an influential role in Brussels as part of a major reshuffle of top jobs after European elections in 2024. Who should replace him will be a hot topic at the party’s congress in the Spanish city of Malaga.
Košta was the Socialists’ choice to succeed Charles Michel as President of the European Council from November 2024, when the Belgian’s term will expire (and according to the rules he cannot serve another term). The Socialists, on course to become the second largest group again after the European elections, have set their sights on the Council presidency after one of their ranks took over as the EU’s top diplomat – first Italy’s Federica Mogherini and then Spain’s Josep Borrell .
But that plan failed this week when Kosta resigned after police raided his official residence. The country’s chief prosecutor confirmed that Košta was being investigated as part of a corruption investigation.
Costa has been found not guilty of anything and can ultimately still claim a job in Brussels. It would not be the first time a senior EU official has been appointed after being embroiled in a scandal.
In July 2014, Jean-Claude Juncker was elected president of the European Commission a year after resigning as prime minister of Luxembourg in the wake of a scandal involving the country’s secret services, which allegedly committed abuses under his leadership. His successor as Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, was embroiled in scandal when she was Germany’s defense minister, with allegations that lucrative contracts from her ministry were awarded to outside consultants without proper oversight.
But Portugal’s legal system is notoriously slow – the corruption case against Costa’s predecessor, the socialist Jose Socrates, in 2014 is still ongoing – and few expect any clarity on Costa’s situation within a year.
It is possible that the Cattargate scandal has raised the bar of public opinion regarding the tolerance of European politicians involved in corruption cases. “If he [Коста] thinks he can’t be prime minister while this goes on, he obviously can’t be president of the European Council while this goes on,” said Greens MEP Daniel Freund. The German MEP said the job of European Council president is “much stronger” so “this position must be protected even more from any reputational risk”.
Call Pedro Sanchez! No, wait…
The most obvious alternative to Costa was Spaniard Pedro Sánchez, who was rumored to be the main contender for the post of NATO secretary-general last June, when he seemed doomed to be elected in Spain.
Incredibly, Sanchez emerged from this summer’s election looking likely to stay in office, and on Thursday secured the crucial support he needed to stay in power as Spain’s prime minister from the Catalan separatist Hunt party.
The fifteen weeks of torturous bargaining with other left-wing parties – and, critically, the amnesty offer to Catalan separatist conspirators – that Sánchez endured are likely to be a harbinger of the challenges he will face next term.
His minority government will need the support of a huge number of regional and separatist parties with vastly different philosophies to pass laws.
“It will be very difficult for this government to pass any laws. The political dynamics will be extremely complex,” said political scientist Pablo Simon.
With a fractured coalition and facing constant attacks from a right-wing opposition that openly questions his legitimacy to rule, Sanchez may be tempted by a more comfortable and high-profile post in Brussels.
“At the moment, Spain is in a good international position: After Germany, Spain is the most important country in the EU where a socialist is in power,” says Simon. “With Costa out, who can say what Sanchez’s future would be?”
Sanchez’s departure will undoubtedly throw the Spanish left into chaos as there is no clear successor. But given that the possibility of productive governance seems slim to none, he might not give too much thought to the mess he’ll leave in his wake.
List B
Other names of current or former socialist prime ministers are less obvious contenders for top jobs in Brussels.
Former Finnish leader Sanna Marin, one of the Socialists’ most prominent faces, faced criticism after joining the Tony Blair Institute as a strategic adviser (she also signed a contract with an entertainment and talent management company).
One EU official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak publicly, described Marin as a “troublemaker”, suggesting she was not suitable for the job. Another Scandinavian name, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, may have trouble defending his country’s tough immigration policy to other European socialists.
Frans Timmermans, the former hardline socialist in the European Commission, has just left Brussels to return to the Netherlands. If he wins this month’s election, he will become prime minister of the Netherlands and is unlikely to want to leave, and if he fails, he will never have been prime minister, an unofficial criterion for the top job in the Council.
One of the names that has long circulated in the corridors of Brussels is that of the former President of the European Central Bank and former Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi.
The man seen as the savior of the euro has now been tasked by von der Leyen with producing a report on how the EU can deal with its declining global competitiveness, which could further boost his authority.
However, he is considered a long shot for many reasons.
Since the role of full-time European Council president was introduced in 2009, it has always been entrusted to a politician affiliated with one of the parties (first Belgium’s Herman van Rompuy, then Poland’s Donald Tusk, and now Michel) – and Draghi was a technocrat and then an independent prime minister. Socialists will find it difficult to appoint someone who does not belong to their party. It also remains unclear whether the center-right government of Giorgia Meloni would back Draghi.
For other former Socialist prime ministers, such as Italy’s Paolo Gentiloni and Sweden’s Stefan Löfven, it has been a long time since they left the European Council table, and they may face similar problems securing the support of their centre-right governments.
2023-11-11 14:17:10
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