He real estate accumulates data that suggest a some relaxation. Heeuriborin fact, It falls short in August about what was feared in July, after the last interest rate rise. While those responsible for the main Spanish financial institutions They expected levels between 4.10 and 4.15%the average price so far in August it settles in the 4,059%.
But there is one last arreón left. There is numerical modelsand not a few, who anticipate that the referential for loans will reach in september until the 4,20%. The most common range with which Spanish banks work establishes a floor of 4.15%for next month. And it is that, unlike August, September yes it has in the calendar committed dates for the Euribor.
The market assumes that the European Central Bank (ECB) will apply the latter – in all likelihood – interest rate rise for this cycle. others will become more expensive 25 basis points. That same pressure should be transferred to the euribor the days before or immediately after the decision of the european institution.
The statements of the toughest members of the BCEas the governor of the Dutch central bank, Klass Knotwhich cool the options that interest rates keep going up during the fall redundant with the messages of the moderate block. The governor of the Italian central bank, Ignatius Viscourges the caution to whom they assure that there will be increases until December.
So the state of mind –extremely important in the economy– and some redirected data from inflationalthough stubborn in the underlying section, allow to build forecasts who begin to draw the fall of the euribor. He interbank index will be depressed –from the highs of September– during the last quarter of the year to close 2023 between 3,75 and the 3,80%. As the incursion into 2024 progresses, and if the economic forecasts do not go awry, a Euribor at 3.50% (julio) y al 2,75% (December).
When will the fall of the Euribor be noticed?
The families they will notice the savings as the new quotes fall below the latest revision, so even though the euribor begins to yield in a few weeks, there will be family savings that it will take many months to notice the improvement. For example, the Euribor in December 2022 put together a stocking of 3,081% so the loans with annual review still they will become more expensive more (the best forecast is 3.75) this year.
December’s semi-annual reviews draw the opposite reverse. Those mortgaged will be the first to benefit from the new streak. And it is that, with the same projection of the 3,75%the monthly installments will become cheaper on -6,2% average. Their loans renewed conditions in June with the Euribor in the 4,00%.
It is likely that the revised mortgages last May also begin to notice a certain (and very shy) relief in your next tosemi-annual update, depending on how the intensity and speed of the Euribor drop is confirmed. In any case, the monthly payments will not return to the levels prior to the ssharp rise in interest rates. He Euribor floor would be reached at the beginning of 2025 and would be established between 2.5 and 2.75%.
That is, the resulting installments of the next renovations will be closer to the monthly payments of 2023 that of the 2021 and it is something that, according to the sources consulted, should already be counted on to organize the family economy of the coming months. In fact, the trends indicate that the Spanish react to preserve their economic integrity.
Bank changes skyrocket
The latest data available, corresponding to May and recorded by the Statistics National Institute (INE), reveal that bank changes to exchange a current mortgage for another with better conditions they shot a 23%. Favorite product is fixed rate mortgagealthough some experts consider that the time to subscribe has already passed. Right now they would be signed with the types of interest in maximum and with the expectation that start to go down.
Las surrogacy in some cases they will not be enough. He real-estate market expects for the coming months the increase in the supply of second hand flatsthat the owners in difficulties by the mortgages will put to the salebefore a depressed demand.
Los flat prices have gone up in the last months even though the number of new mortgages has fallen drastically: the collapse was measured in the -24%, according to the same source (INE) and with the May reference (latest available). Was the further correction since January 2021, when the effects of the pandemic were collected.
Los flat priceshowever, go up -although already showing signs of slowdown- given that the bulk of operations are settled in the countryside thanks to 60,000 million extra that the Spanish saved during the months of confinement and restrictions. That moneyhowever, it has already been exhausted.
so the flats to buy deberán refinance for most operations. And maybe not all potential buyers think it’s time sign a mortgage.
This is how the prices of flats will evolve
In fact, according to Fotocasa, half of Spain neither considers nor can buy a home If you have to finance it. The combination is served: more flats for sale and fewer buyers. The result will be a price drop during 2024 of the -10% for second-hand real estate, according to a study by Investment magazine.
He new housing stock will follow raising their prices at rates close to the CPI; or at most they would stay stagnantaccording to the lower part of the forecast of the same magazine.
Regardless of the numbers, the option of when to buy a home –now or wait– depends on the personal situations. For example, “if you have found the apartment of your life, it is better not to wait”, explained the Asufin real estate expert, daniel hurtsin Public Mirror.
If the purchase is raised from investment criteriathe recommendation of the sources consulted is be guided by an advisor. The nuances are perhaps more important than in other cases.
2023-08-13 14:12:22
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