By Aram Aaronian
The Argentines do not stop surprising: on a wintery but sunny Sunday, they put the recycled bipartisanship in intensive therapy in the Primary, Open, Simultaneous and Mandatory elections (PASO), when the far-right Javier Milei, until two years ago a television panelist, became the character chosen to reset the system. He outsider won and everyone else lost.
A strange silence from the population drew the attention of the pollsters. But since Sunday night, the silence gave rise to stupefaction with the true electoral catastrophe that was the surprising performance of the “libertarian” Javier Milei and his party La libertad Avanza, who qualify as an “aberration” to social justice.
Obviously, in the two months until the general elections, a lot can happen, including voters taking the risks that Milei and Patricia Bullrich represent, with their fascist threats.
With a 69% turnout, the majority votes of those who had the audacity to vote in the midst of apathy and indifference, were divided into thirds -as many predicted-, with a victory for La Libertad Avanza, by Javier Milei, with the 30% No survey gave him such a high percentage in the previous one. The libertarian drew seven million votes.
The popular verdict was forceful: it expresses discontent, fights, lack of belongings, new generations with unprecedented demands. Respect and tolerance do not imply an automatic alignment with the first minority. Not even with the overwhelming 58 percent that Milei and Bullrich amassed, in separate forces, Mario Wainfeld points out. The shift to the right of the electorate, of the planet, the polarization that empowers the right are facts. None of this entails a kind of mathematical opportunism to embrace the flags of the adversaries. Bullrich’s program is impossible in Argentina without repression. Milei’s adds the infeasibility of his emblematic measures: dollarization, sale of organs, vouchers for education. “The institutional weakness that it would have is added to it,” he adds.
The obligatory primaries (PASO) were intended to select who will be the candidates of the different parties in the elections on Sunday, October 22 and to find out if the phenomenon of the extreme right had taken root in a country that, until now, had moved in democracy. between liberal-conservatism and the centrist amalgamation (sometimes right-wing, other times progressive and even revolutionary) that peronism or justicialism supposes.
For Peronism it is a historical humiliation to go from being the armored majority of the country to the third of a country of thirds. Undoubtedly, the lousy government of Alberto Fernández ended up “suicide” to the party of Perón and Evita. But putting the magnifying glass on what happened, the election of the neoliberal coalition is as catastrophic as that of Peronism, taking into account that just two years ago the polls indicated that they had a guaranteed next government, with 40% of the preferences. The sad spectacle of a stark internal campaign took its toll on them.
Given the dismal electoral performance of the ruling party, there are still some pending debates, such as discerning whether the decision of Axel Kiciloff – who once again prevailed in the Buenos Aires province – was correct, or if, instead of betting on retaining that crucial district, he should have invested his political capital in running as a presidential candidate.
It sounds logical, given the fait accompli, to wonder if it will be profitable in the national elections to bet the Buenos Aires result on the candidacy of a Minister of Economy who does not give a foot in the ball to tame inflation, protected by a president -Alberto Fernández-, whom He is accused of being the “murderer” of Peronism.
Both Milei and her party came out on top, winning several provinces, leaving behind the two coalitions that won the last three elections. None of them reached 30 percent national. The neoliberals of JxC were left just a point above of an exploited government, which shows as a cover letter more than 120% inflation this year.
When the differences between projections and reality are as extreme as in this case, the question arises as to whether they are simple sampling errors or bad praxis induced by candidates who pay for the surveys and consultants who agree to put their stamp on results rigged to suit the client. “None of the 13 surveys gave Milei a winner and twelve gave him third,” recalls Perfil.
There is an important portion of society for which the extravagance of this man, his verbal and gestural violence, his anti-political discourse, fits exactly with his desire to punish the “caste”. A phenomenon similar to what happened with Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil and with Donald Trump in the United States. Leaders punished for politically correct thinking, but functional to the boredom of certain sectors. Including people from different socioeconomic strata, adds the magazine.
Promoter of the purchase and sale of organs, the free use of firearms, the privatization of education and the closure of the Central Bank, after knowing his triumph, he thanked his dead dog after a journalistic book revealed that he maintains fluent dialogue with his deceased English mastiff through a medium; just as he gets advice from dead economists through his other (living) dogs.
Most voters do not know or are interested in knowing what the candidate says he thinks or is going to do. What interests them is that eHe is a television figure who shouts, explodes and insults, and transmits sensations close to what a large part of the population feels.
situation chart
The murder of an 11-year-old girl in Lanús (in the Buenos Aires suburbs) and the suspension of the acts and closures of the electoral campaign are enormous and symbolic proof that insecurity is installed and is part of the painful reality, but the parties give the impression of having nothing to say or do in the face of this collective drama.
Last Thursday, in a square adjacent to the Buenos Aires Obelisk, some militants were discussing the uselessness of voting, when the City police intervened. Several were arrested and thrown to the ground, face down. Police knees squeezed the neck of Facundo Molares, a leftist militant, causing his death. Just like what happened with the African-American George Floyd, in Minnesota, in May 2020. But that policeman was convicted of murder.
It must be taken into account that the one on Sunday the 13th was an electoral call in the midst of a deep economic and social crisis, in a country immersed in a more than critical situation. The permanent maturities of the debt are a veritable sword of Damocles that stands over the heads of all Argentines.
Inflation, which far exceeds 100% per year, is a pain that the vast majority must endure on a daily basis. Poverty that extends throughout the country: it closed the year 2022 with 39.2%, which reveals that 11,465,599 people suffer from it, according to official figures, although other measurements place it above 40%.
Even more serious is that one in five white workers receives income below the poverty line. Serious is also the detail provided by the UNICEF Report, which indicates that by the end of 2022, two out of three girls and boys in Argentina (66%) are part of households that have poverty incomes.
This year a 2.5% drop, due to recession, is expected compared to 2022. The true fact is that during the time the economy was growing, poverty and inequality also grew. There was redistribution of income, but it was in favor of the powerful. By the way, there are not many precedents of elections carried out in similar frameworks. And it is not surprising that the top presidential candidate of the ruling party is the Minister of Economy and responsible for these policies.
How to add votes?
Now, Bullrich and the official Sergio Massa face different challenges. For Peronism it is mobilizing more voters, scratching votes in the territories with militants and leaders. And surely propose itself as an alternative to two right-wing rivals in the economic and cultural spheres. At first glance, Milei subtracted votes from JxC, but Peronism’s total was one of the lowest since the democratic recovery.
The dilemma faced by Patricia Bullrich, the JxC candidate, is where else can she get votes from, because it is difficult for the bold who voted for Milei and La libertad Avanza to vote for her when her own party can win. Or that a Peronist disenchanted with Sergio Massa made a suicide leap. Bullrich has the task of adding. The problem is how.
Former President Mauricio Macri, in his internal struggle to keep Horacio Rodríguez Larreta out, almost killed the coalition he created and which did so much damage to the country, leaving it on the brink of being left out of the national government. But Macri has a good dialogue with Milei and aspires to be the articulator of a new Argentina led by him and ‘Pato’ Bullrich, a controversial and repressive candidate, with experience in Macri’s cabinets, who defeated the head of government of the capital, Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, and will represent the traditional right
After the PASO, Milei became the main favorite, with 30.06% of the votes. The primaries, in which voting is compulsory, are also free and a testing ground compared to the presidential ones, in which the vote of punishment and anger takes on greater prominence. That will be the hope of the continuity represented by Massa, Minister of Economy of the current government and candidate of Union for the Fatherland, a party that came in third position and added 27.3% of the votes.
It is no longer enough to shout “Long live Perón”: we must update the speeches, understanding what is happening in a country in crisis, understanding the needs of the people, poverty, unemployment, hunger: daily tranquility and making ends meet, without dying in the effort.
Between now and October, when Argentines wake up every day, the dinosaurs will still be there, as pointed out in the shortest story in the world, only seven words) by the Guatemalan-Mexican Augusto Monterroso.
Aram Aharonian: Uruguayan journalist and communication specialist. Master in Integration. Creator and founder of Telesur. He chairs the Foundation for Latin American Integration (FILA) and directs the Latin American Center for Strategic Analysis (CLAE)
