Despite the period of economic turbulence, the labor market in the country remained fairly stable throughout the year. Unemployment data is hitting historic lows: in the summer the unemployment rate dropped to 3.9%, now it remains in the range of just over 4%, which is even below the peaks during the pandemic. However, other trends are evident, Anastasia Uskova, CEO of the Rocket Work platform, told Reedus.
In the white-collar segment, the job seeker market is replaced by the employer market. The demand for top managers is falling. But on the contrary, there are more vacancies with easy access, the competition for the seats there is low.
Against the backdrop of the popularity of the rental model and freelancing, the number of people combining work in different places is growing. According to some estimates, 30% of Russian workers already have a second job or a part-time job. This is almost double compared to last year, when the share of part-time workers was around 17%. And in the past year, businesses have become more actively cooperating with freelancers: even today, according to surveys, there are more than 50% of such companies. Where will all this lead and what will the labor market be like in 2023?
Staff hiring instead of the classic recruitment
According to the expert, the hiring of staff, the outsourcing of part of the work processes and the collaboration with freelancers allows companies to save and maintain mobility in terms of human resources. Finding, hiring and recruiting freelancers is faster, and ending relationships with them is also easier. For such employees, as a rule, it is not necessary to pay taxes and social security contributions, as many of them have the status of individual or self-employed entrepreneurs. All of this helps companies survive in times of crisis, but in a calmer future the demand for freelance services is likely to continue, predicts the expert.
Shortage of staff
The demographic hole of the 90s-2000s is making itself felt. In the future, the number of economically active Russians will decrease compared to previous decades and the working hands will age.
According to HSE forecasts, the share of workers under 40 will decrease constantly and by 2030 it will go from 42% to 37.4%. This process directly affects labor productivity and can deplete 1-1.5% of GDP annually. Furthermore, the demographic decline, migration and a decrease in the flow of foreign workforce are pushing towards a shortage of personnel.
We are already seeing signs of shortages in the easy-to-access category. There are often more proposals than curricula and in the future this gap will increase in other areas, as it will not be possible to quickly close the demographic gap. – foresees the interlocutor of “Reedus”.
The boom of the blue collar
The demand for them, unlike job vacancies, is now growing and will likely continue next year. The pressure of sanctions and restrictions on access to technology will result in the need to rebuild processes and catch up with indicators through manual work. Furthermore, it remains difficult to predict the situation with the foreign workforce, which traditionally held positions in the field of vacancies that do not require special qualifications.
Already, the shortage of personnel in construction is estimated by the Ministry of Construction at 3-5 million. This need will remain with us in the next year, – Anastasia Uskova is confident.
The state is the main employer
Already, according to the IMF, the share of the state and companies connected to it in one way or another in the economy is more than 30%. According to the FAS, this share could actually be double, 70%.
It is clear that in the next two years it will be state-owned companies, budgetary institutions and government orders that will guarantee jobs, while the contribution of private companies, especially small and medium-sized companies, which so far represents about 20% of all jobs will be reduced if the crisis drags on concludes the expert.
