It is now over a hundred days since Russia invaded Ukraine. The world has witnessed a war that shakes Europe.
Several million Ukrainians have been sent on the run in what is being called the largest the refugee catastrophe in Europe since World War II. Many have chosen to return to bombed-out cities where the fighting has calmed down, such as Kyiv and the surrounding suburbs.
Russia has been accused of war crimes, but shows no signs of calming down on the offensive. They have lost the battle for Kyiv. Now the Russians are focusing on the areas of Donetsk and Luhansk counties.
– Tactical withdrawals
Tom Røseth, head of intelligence at the Norwegian Defense College, believes that Ukraine is smart and does not hold its position at all costs, but rather focuses on the greatest possible Russian loss.
– Ukraine accepts tactical withdrawals, but that does not mean that they lose Donbass. There are large areas left, but Luhansk county is more challenging, says Røseth.
– OSLO: Tom Røseth is an associate professor and head teacher in intelligence at the Norwegian Defense College / Staff College. Photo: Kristin Grønning / TV 2
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He says that there is now only one strategically important city left before the Russians manage to take the whole county.
Can lose Luhansk
On the border of Donetsk Oblast lies the city of Lysychansk.
The city next to Severodonedsk is strategically important for the Russians if they are to be able to take the entire Luhansk province.
– If they lose Lysychansk, they lose the whole of Luhansk, Røseth says.
– It is more likely that the Russians will be able to take the city, than that Ukraine will be able to hold back given the development that has been the last three weeks. Important factors are signs of Russian wear and tear, Ukrainian reinforcements and rapid foreign arms support.
– LUHANSK: Several cities in Luhansk are heavily bombed Photo: Alexander Ermochenko / Reuters
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Even though the Russians are now running out of both weapons and trained personnel, it is the Russians who have the upper hand. Røseth says that the Russians have persevered for a long time, and that they will probably continue to do so in the time ahead.
But he also points to Ukraine’s willingness to persevere.
– The Ukrainians have shown a willingness to hold positions for a long time. We last saw that in Mariupol. But I think here they would rather choose to move away, so that they can focus on protecting cities like Krematorsk further west.
One detail is important
However, it may take several weeks before Russia manages to take control of Lysychansk.
But if the Russians manage to take control of the supply lines into Luhansk province, it can take significantly less time.
– There is an absolute risk that Russia will be able to take control of the supply lines, says Røseth.
Lavrov posed to the wall by Ukrainian journalist
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He says that the Russians are so close to the main roads where the supply route goes, that there is therefore such a great risk that they will be able to take over the supply line.
There are other routes the Ukrainians can use, if the current scheme fails. But these are much worse options.
– Then there will be other routes that are not so good and then you will be faster on the defensive if you do not have safe and good supply routes to Lysytsjansk.
No sign of war ending
On Friday, the message came that Ukraine is empty of Soviet weapons. Røseth believes that this is very serious.
– It was allegedly the weapons they had. I have a hard time believing that they have lost everything, but it is clear that there have been great material losses. Ukraine is now very dependent on the West. The West has increased its arms support, and there is no sign that this will cease.
But it is not just Ukraine that is now running out of weapons. Russia also seems to be struggling to produce enough weapons as a result of the many packages of sanctions that have been introduced. To produce new and advanced weapons with GPS control, Russia relies on microchips.
– HOUSING BLOCK: Several have lost their home and everything they own in the bomb rain Photo: Francisco Seco / AP
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But even though Russia is now struggling to produce new weapons, they are still materially superior.
– They have a lot of old weapons such as tanks, artillery and anti-armor weapons, says Røseth.
Russia, on the other hand, is struggling to find enough personnel. Ukraine, for its part, is superior on the personnel front.
– Both parties are starting to become more exhausted both materially and personally. It may lead to a ceasefire, but it does not look like it is imminent.
– There are no signs that the war will end, Røseth concludes.
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