Russia plans to take control of the besieged steel plant Azovstal in Mariupol by Monday, May 9, claims the Ukrainian government.
Around 200 civil shall still be in the steelworks.
May 9 is the day Russia marks the victory over Nazi Germany in 1945, and the date is thus symbolic for President Vladimir Putin.
– Now this is doubly symbolic because Putin claims that it is Nazism they are fighting against in Ukraine as well, says general and former defense chief Sverre Diesen to TV 2.
– SYMBOLTUNG DAY: General Sverre Diesen believes that it is highly valued in Russia to be able to refer to military results on 9 May. Photo: Odd Arne Hartvigsen / TV 2
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Small victory
Diesen believes that Russia had wanted to have greater progress to show in Ukraine by 9 May, when the big military parade is to be shown.
– It undeniably looks bad with a huge military parade when the same military service is in trouble, and clearly unable to solve the task for which they should have all the prerequisites, Diesen says.
Therefore, he believes, like the Ukrainian government, that Russia considers gaining control of the Mariupol steel plant by Monday important.
– It is a very small victory considering all the resources the Russians have invested, but they will probably need something, and then that is probably the most they can hope to achieve.
Continues offensive
According to British intelligence, Russian forces in Mariupol are stepping up as a ground offensive against the steelworks for the second day in a row.
Thus, the offensive continues despite Russian statements that they only want to insulate the steelworks, according to one statement from the British Ministry of Defense, reproduced at The Guardian.
According to British intelligence, the efforts at Azovstal cost the Russians, both in terms of personnel and ammunition.
“While the Ukrainian resistance continues in Azovstal, Russian losses will continue to increase, which will create frustration for their operational plans in the southern Donbas,” it said.
– SMOKE: The picture from Thursday 5 May shows smoke from the Azovstal steelworks in Mariupol. Heavy fighting has been reported at the steel plant. Photo: Alexander Ermochenko / Reuters / NTB
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– Putin is in a corner
As long as Russia does not manage to make significant progress in Ukraine, the former defense chief believes that the pressure is on them.
– The difference between Ukraine and Russia is that Russia must win militarily to win politically. The Ukrainians just need to stop the Russians from winning, then they have won politically.
Diesen believes this could put Putin in a desperate situation.
– A situation like the one we have now would in the West lead to Russia realizing that it had to be resolved through negotiations. Putin is in a corner where he does not automatically draw that conclusion, he says.
– He may be just as inclined to draw a conclusion in the direction of doing something even more radical.
– PARADE: The military parade on May 9 is important for Putin. The picture is from the parade in 2021. Photo: Mikhail Metzel / AP / NTB
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– Will be reciprocated
On Wednesday, Russian authorities stated that the country’s forces have completed a simulated exercise with rockets that can be equipped with nuclear warheads.
Diesen still believes the nuclear weapons threshold is high in the Kremlin.
– With a person like Putin in this situation, you can not say categorically no to anything, but I still do not think he will do it. He is surrounded by people who, after all, want to dissuade him from it.
– NUCLEAR ROCKET: Russia tested missiles capable of carrying nuclear weapons on Wednesday. The picture is from a similar test in April. Photo: AP / NTB
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He believes the West now has an important job in communicating to Russia what the consequences would be if he were to resort to nuclear weapons.
– The most dangerous situation is that Putin does not understand that it will be retaliated against. Not necessarily with the same type of weapon, but that it will be reciprocated in a way that is completely destructive for him and the regime, says Diesen.
– He must not doubt that.
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