The demand for 8-inch wafer foundry is booming, and the production capacity is in short supply. Under the tight production capacity, it also raises doubts about the adjustment of semiconductor inventory; the industry believes that the market will more or less repeat or over-order orders, and some believe that the current downstream manufacturers expect to stock up. If the demand is greater than the actual demand, inventory adjustment may occur as soon as the first quarter of next year, but it does not rule out that the demand is still hot and there will be no correction.
The recent housing economy trend driven by the epidemic, coupled with the rise of 5G and AI applications, has greatly increased the demand for laptops, game consoles, Netcom, and servers, and the demand for power management chips for 5G mobile phones has shown multiple growth. Recently, 8-inch wafers The foundry production capacity is facing short supply, and the news of price increases by the industry has spread frequently, and it has spread from the foundry to the back-end packaging and testing plants.
Concerns about semiconductor inventory adjustments have always been the focus of the market. Especially in the recent situation of tight foundry production capacity, the market is worried about whether it will replicate the past peak semiconductor boom. Downstream manufacturers are worried about not being able to grab production capacity, and repeated orders have appeared, leading to follow-up The industry is facing inventory adjustments.
Foreign investors have recently warned that the iPhone 12 was previously over-active in sourcing. The first wave of orders has been launched recently, which has had an impact on the upstream supply chain. TSMC (2330-TW) Will be the first to bear the brunt. The utilization rate of 5nm capacity may decline as a result. It is expected that inventory adjustments may continue until the first half of next year. Besides Apple, non-Apple mobile phones including Xiaomi and OPPO have also started to cut orders recently. Cut orders by 10% to 15% each quarter, again raising doubts about inventory adjustments.
In addition to the noise of TSMC’s 5nm and other advanced process capacity utilization rates, 8-inch wafer foundries are world-leading (5347-TW) Chairman Fanglue also does not shy away from saying that when the 8-inch foundry capacity in the market is in short supply, it is believed that there will be repeated orders and over-orders, which may also cause subsequent inventory adjustments. It is not yet possible to predict how long the good situation will last.
Hui Rong (SIMO-US) General Manager Gou Jiazhang pointed out that the overall market is still due to the tight foundry production capacity and large factories stocking up in response to the epidemic, which has a crowding effect on production capacity. Although the market is strong in pulling goods, he believes that manufacturers’ expectations are greater than actual demand. It seems that everyone is working hard to stock up, and the real demand is not so strong.
Gou Jiazhang also believes that, judging from the current situation, there may be inventory adjustments in the semiconductor industry in the first or second quarter of next year, but it is also possible that market demand will still be strong by then and there will be no inventory correction.
–
