Andrius Kubilius, a Member of the European Parliament and former Lithuanian Prime Minister who drafted a report on what future European policy towards Russia should look like, calls on the European Union (EU) to be prepared not to recognize the Russian State Duma elections in the same way as the President of Belarus. elections. To talk about it, Latvian Radio invited Kubiļi to an interview.
Interview with Andris Kubilis, Member of the European Parliament and former Prime Minister of LithuaniaArtyom Konohov
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Artyom Konohov / Latvian Radio: The Baltic states have been accused for years that their position against Russia is too radical, that they are too unfriendly. In writing this report on relations between Russia and the European Union, have you come to the conclusion that the other MEPs are approaching the position of the Baltic States, or are they still remaining somewhere before?
Tubs: I am the standing rapporteur on Russia and I can tell you that a group of Members under my leadership has been working on this report. I fully agree with everything written in it and much of it comes from my previous publications and agrees with my vision of what should be done. This report was supported by a wide range of Members in the Committee on Foreign Affairs, around 80%.
Over the past year, we have had five or six resolutions on both [opozīcijas līdera Alekseja] The poisoning of Navalny, both the arrest of Navalny and the gathering of military forces at the Ukrainian border. These resolutions have also been supported by a large majority of Members.
That is why I think the European Parliament is becoming truly united in its position against Russia. And this is very much in line with what we Baltics are saying.
This is both an attitude towards the Kremlin regime and a positive view of Russian society and its future. This society can follow the same path that Ukraine once chose and is now trying to choose Belarus, namely to live in a modern European country.
Why are you discussing relations with Russia now? Is it related to the upcoming Russian elections or is it just a coincidence?
It is more of a coincidence, but it is important that, just before the elections, we can say clearly what our position is on Russia. We can clearly separate our approach to the Kremlin from our attitude towards ordinary Russians.
Already in the first half of last year, we have called on the other European Union institutions to draw up a new strategy for relations with Russia. At that time, we adopted a resolution on the poisoning of Navalny, we saw a situation begin to develop in Belarus – the stolen elections, the events around Sviatlan Cihanouska and so on. All this led us to believe that the European Union needed a new strategy for relations with Russia.
Then we in Parliament also came to the conclusion that we should make our recommendations.
So in the middle of the summer, we voted in favor of this document in the Committee on Foreign Affairs. Now, after the summer break, we are already discussing this in plenary. And so it turns out that this is the last week before the so-called Russian parliamentary elections.
I would like to hear your political assessment of the state of democracy in Russia. Freedom of expression and thought seem to be diminishing in Russia as the elections approach. Several independent media outlets are called foreign agents, and journalists are given the same name.
When we published an abridged version of this report around May, I noticed how aggressively the Kremlin reacted to it. This could be seen in television talk shows and elsewhere. The main reason for this was that the report included the phrase that Europe must be prepared not to recognize the outcome of the Russian State Duma elections if they were stolen.
We see that [Baltkrievijas līderis Aleksandrs] Lukashenko has stolen the election after the vote. When he saw that he had lost Sviatlan Cihanouska, he refused to admit the result.
Putin wants to steal the elections before they take place.
This is evidenced by the names of foreign agents, the imprisonment of Navalny, and attacks on the media. More than 100 potentially powerful opposition candidates have not been admitted to the elections. All this shows that these elections are not being held in accordance with international democratic standards. The European Union will therefore have to ask itself a question, which we have also included in the report: ‘Can we recognize the legitimacy of these elections?’ I think this is very problematic.
Yes, I think there will be an interesting discussion on that. I would now like to move from the position of the European Parliament to the Member States. Some see the agreement between Washington and Berlin on the completion of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline as a worrying signal. Others say the agreement is an attempt to strike a very delicate balance, as Germany may, on the one hand, complete the construction of the pipeline, but on the other hand, Russia will now have to play by certain rules that are not very typical of the Kremlin. In my opinion, the idea that we need to continue cooperating and talking to Russia is still quite alive. What do you think about that?
Yes, at the level of the Member States, we sometimes still find it naive to have a dialogue with Kremlin officials and to achieve something in this way. It seems to me that we should not naively think that dialogue could change the Kremlin’s behavior. I do not think that, as a result of the dialogue, Putin will suddenly become a Democrat or a Liberal.
Yes, I believe that “Nord Stream 2“was a geopolitical mistake made by the German government. Unfortunately, European Union rules and laws have not been able to stop this project.
Gazprom is now blackmailing Europeans. The price of gas has already exceeded $ 700 per 1,000 cubic meters. Although in the summer it still cost $ 300. In addition, there are very clear statements from Peskov that in a situation where prices are so high and winter storage is empty, there could be no more stupid people in Europe who would oppose Nord Stream 2.
But Nord Stream 2 cannot start, because they must first implement the so-called unbundling directive. Because we will see how it will be implemented in life.
But in the report, we try to look a little further, because we in Parliament have always been against Nord Stream 2. We say that the European Union has already agreed on major targets for climate change and is now beginning to discuss the practical details of what is known as the Green Course. This has huge geopolitical consequences.
Or rather, it will have huge geopolitical consequences if we make these changes a reality. And Russia will feel the consequences. Figures show that with the introduction of the Green Exchange rate, Russian gas imports into the European Union will decrease by 75% around 2035.
Gazprom now serves about 50% of the European Union market. The green course will change that dramatically. Russia is still not prepared for the fact that, as a result of the green transformation, various economies will start consuming less and less oil and gas. This will have a major impact on the Russian economy, and I hope that it will also have an impact on the political climate in that country.
Yes, more recently, the head of Rosneft has announced that the decline in gas and oil consumption, as well as the imposition of a so-called carbon tax on goods from countries that are not doing enough to combat climate change, could seriously affect Russian exports to Europe. This suggests to me that a deep wave of lobbying is now expected of them.
Exactly! I, too, believe that the Kremlin will now make an effort to prevent Europeans from implementing the Green Course here in Europe. They will lobby as much as they can, they will try to bribe … We must be ready for that.
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